I think it is a three-team conference now in terms of talent on paper and the mix of talent: The Patriots (they are the best until proven otherwise), the Colts and the Browns.
I think KC took a step back. Their D was not good at all, got worse. Their O may lose a key player and teams have had a year to study them.
I think the Chargers are legit but their O is not as good as the Pats, Colts and Browns.
Houston needs to prove their offense can stay healthy.
The rest are hampered by serious deficiencies or losses in personnel.
I agree with
@Out of the Rafters at the Q - the Chargers are going to be really good. Same with the Colts and Patriots.
Right now, I have the order as: Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Browns.
The Colts are
really good. Their is not one area where I see them declining this season, and my guess is that their defense improves.
Chargers probably have the best defense in the NFL this year. My only concern is if Phillip Rivers can pass when he faces interior pass rush. Basically every advanced stat has Rivers as a top-25 QB of all-time, and he is really quite good, but his declining arm strength is a problem.
Keenen Allen is a great wide receiver, but I do not trust Mike Williams to replicate his 2018, and after that is really murky. Tyrell Williams is gone and I have no idea who be their deep threat. I suppose the team thinks it will be Mike Williams, but between injuries and actual play, Williams was one of the worst receivers in the NFL his first year. I get that he was a rookie and had a weird season, but my guess is that his 2019 is in between the two years.
Browns are the biggest wild card in the NFL. Do not buy any predictive model because, as far as I know (and I know pretty well), there are no good models that predict QB progression or defensive year-to-year performance. They have a new coach, a new #1 WR, a second year quarterback, a new defensive system with more secondary players, a more progressive offense that will ask a lot of Baker, and a mid-season change at runningback. If most of this works out positively, then I think the Browns can have an insane season (12-4/13-3), but most of this may fail. It's just tough to tell and prognosticate.