2019 NBA Draft

[Alec]

Wait, what? Draymond is maybe 1" taller than Zion.

Sorry. 4” of wingspan. Which is more important

 

[mrWalrus]

Zion and Nike both going down in a flash. Nike had to be praying that he'd return to the game. I'm sure the millions watching were too.

Nike gonna get sued if those were their shoes. Buy puts on that stock now.

 

[CommD]

Nike 'Paul George' model.

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/02/zion-williamson-shoes-nike-what-kind/

 

[Mr. MacPhisto]

To this point, he’s basically been a worse shooting Agbaji. For his athletic gifts, 3.2 BlK+STL per 100 is pretty meh. Then maybe even another notch down if you consider his AST numbers too. Per 100, he’s only producing 2.3 assists....for 5.5 combined BLK / STL / AST. Per 100 possessions, that is just not good.

Consider someone like Cam, who needs to certainly improve but has managed to show he can evenly contribute across categories, while maintaining some higher offensive upside. Per 100, Cam is averaging 4.2 AST, 3.8 STL, .8 BLK for an 8.8 BLK/ STL / AST split.

I think Little has potential but he has hurt his NBA stock. Pre-season, most scouts would have thought Little had atleast a small chance to be the #1 pick, given his defensive versatility, shooting potential and 18 month improvement prior to his first college season. If not #1, certainly in the conversation at #2. He was my favorite wing prospect pre-season but he’s just been ok.

The biggest concern to me, stats aside, is that he just looks stiff laterally against college athletes and that is going to be even more of a problem in the NBA. If he can’t defend at a relatively high level, he’s far less attractive as a wing prospect because he just doesn’t have the handle or passing ability of someone like RJ.

I understand the concern but I'd argue UNC was a bad place for him to start to improve his stock. Williams is known for not just throwing freshmen on the floor and his minutes are low and inconsistent. It's difficult to truly judge him since he does not have consistent playing time - and of course a recent ankle injury doesn't help.

My gut tells me Little could be one of the better guys long term, though there is definitely more coaching and patience required with him. I wouldn't argue picking him above Reddish, Barrett, etc - but if the Cavs land beyond those guys and the draft really becomes a crap shoot, the upside of Little is intriguing. I'd wager Reddish and Barrett will be better sooner, but Little has a chance to be better than Reddish and possibly Barrett down the line.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

This guy is as accurate as anyone with diagnosing injuries off video.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.co...-shoe-duke-north-carolina-20190220-story.html

 

[Green Lantern]

Yes it does.

The same guy. And I’m reposting these for entertainment value and there may be discussion points.



I think there’s bits of truth here and there. I don’t really think Zion can be the #1 option on a top 4 seeded playoff team. I don’t think he can put a bad team on his back and get them through the first round of the playoffs, as the player he is now. Or maybe even get them there at all.

But there’s a middle ground between the Lebrons of the world and say, Blake Griffin. He may be in there.


More truth

The truth is, most of these guys are really not ready yet.
Before anyone gets in a frenzy about my comment, these players are far from being polished.
Media talking heads often spout off without thinking that they are just really starting and there's a long way to go.
Williams like many others show the flashes of NBA talent but will take time to settle into their position at the next level.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I understand the concern but I'd argue UNC was a bad place for him to start to improve his stock. Williams is known for not just throwing freshmen on the floor and his minutes are low and inconsistent. It's difficult to truly judge him since he does not have consistent playing time - and of course a recent ankle injury doesn't help.

My gut tells me Little could be one of the better guys long term, though there is definitely more coaching and patience required with him. I wouldn't argue picking him above Reddish, Barrett, etc - but if the Cavs land beyond those guys and the draft really becomes a crap shoot, the upside of Little is intriguing. I'd wager Reddish and Barrett will be better sooner, but Little has a chance to be better than Reddish and possibly Barrett down the line.

My biggest offensive hangup with Little is just how terrible his AST/TO ratio is (0.677:1) And that negative gap has actually increased in conference play (0.638:1), against better competition....When considering his NBA position, what All-Star / Franchise level wing has a negative AST/TO ratio? Klay is probably the least point forward / combo like All-Star wing and even he is a career 1.4:1 AST/TO player.....that is nearly twice where Little is at, who is a worse shooter and not in the same tier as a defender.

What separates wing talent is the possibility of projecting point forward or combo guard skills, unless you think they can be an all-time great 3&D player like Thompson.....Klay is the exception but he's still producing at a level far better than Little. Little has not really shown any signs of that to this point. He's a better vertical athlete than someone like Reddish but what looks like a worse horizontal one, without the hint of being able to produce assist numbers. Reddish's problem is not that he can't produce assists to a reasonable degree, it is that he produces a lot of careless turnovers. I'd argue decision making is far easier to coach in to someone than the ability to create for others.....but that is just an opinion.

That's really where I think a lot of people are selling Barrett short, in considering who could possibly be better than him. It is incredibly rare to have a player who is a legit 6'6"-6'7" who flashes abilities as a primary ball handler / distributor and scorer. They are almost always one or the other. When looking at wing prospects from the last 20 years, Barrett is the only NCAA freshman player to average 20 PPG and 4 AST. He is producing at an absurd level for a true freshman and for some reason, people just have soured on him a bit as a prospect. I don't think he's a transcendent player but he is about as safe of a bet as there is in this draft, in terms of NBA floor.

 

[inliner311]

Zion getting injured might be a blessing for properly scouting for our pick. If we landed number 1, I don't doubt for a second we would take Zion. I don't think that changes now.

The thing is now is Cam Reddish will have to step up and if we land in the 3 to 5 range, we should have a much better idea of what Reddish can do. Reddish has been a 3rd option most of the season and with our pick would should be hoping for something more than a 3rd option. Zion's injury should give us at least a couple weeks of tape of Reddish as a second option.

 

[I'mWithDan]

My Markus Howard bandwagon update....

Big East Conference play (13 games):

26.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 3.9 AST, 1 STL.....44.5% FG, 44.4% 3PT (8.3 attempts), 91.3% FT

His last 6 Big East Games:

28.7 PPG, 5.2 REB, 3 AST, 49.7% FG, 45.5% 3PT (9.2 attempts), 91.2% FT

Those shooting splits, with nearly 10 3PT attempts per game, are absolutely bonkers. The last 6 game splits even included 1 game where he shot 5/17.

He's shooting 44% from charted NBA 3's on nearly 150 attempts. He's also posted a FTR increase of more than 2x over last season (3.3/7.0).

I'm really curious to see where he goes and how he does.

 

[Ozone]

Zion getting injured might be a blessing for properly scouting for our pick. If we landed number 1, I don't doubt for a second we would take Zion. I don't think that changes now.

The thing is now is Cam Reddish will have to step up and if we land in the 3 to 5 range, we should have a much better idea of what Reddish can do. Reddish has been a 3rd option most of the season and with our pick would should be hoping for something more than a 3rd option. Zion's injury should give us at least a couple weeks of tape of Reddish as a second option.

with Zion day to day status, unless he shuts hit down, which he should, we won't see Reddish in an expanded role beyond a couple games.
I like his upside and he's a good shooter,with great size, but overall don't like his upside any more than the likes of wings like Culver ,Okpala or K.Porter right now
so other players like Agbaji, Horton Tucker and NAW long term are just as appealing to me.
I think honestly if they don't have a top 2 pick, at least 8 different players could get their name called for the Cavs at 3-6 range

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

My Markus Howard bandwagon update....

Big East Conference play (13 games):

26.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 3.9 AST, 1 STL.....44.5% FG, 44.4% 3PT (8.3 attempts), 91.3% FT

His last 6 Big East Games:

28.7 PPG, 5.2 REB, 3 AST, 49.7% FG, 45.5% 3PT (9.2 attempts), 91.2% FT

Those shooting splits, with nearly 10 3PT attempts per game, are absolutely bonkers. The last 6 game splits even included 1 game where he shot 5/17.

He's shooting 44% from charted NBA 3's on nearly 150 attempts. He's also posted a FTR increase of more than 2x over last season (3.3/7.0).

I'm really curious to see where he goes and how he does.

You watch any Chris Clemons this year?

I don't expect him to get drafted, but I can't wait to watch him in SL.

 

[DeeThree]

My Markus Howard bandwagon update....

Big East Conference play (13 games):

26.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 3.9 AST, 1 STL.....44.5% FG, 44.4% 3PT (8.3 attempts), 91.3% FT

His last 6 Big East Games:

28.7 PPG, 5.2 REB, 3 AST, 49.7% FG, 45.5% 3PT (9.2 attempts), 91.2% FT

Those shooting splits, with nearly 10 3PT attempts per game, are absolutely bonkers. The last 6 game splits even included 1 game where he shot 5/17.

He's shooting 44% from charted NBA 3's on nearly 150 attempts. He's also posted a FTR increase of more than 2x over last season (3.3/7.0).

I'm really curious to see where he goes and how he does.

Wow, Woah, definitely a name to watch!

Heres a highlight video of him scoring 53 this year : View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQ_OJSy3tMs



He's small. Doesn't seem overly quick, but he's quick enough. Decent ball handler. How's his passing? He can definitely stroke it. I see him picked in the 8-17 range?

 

[Nathan S]

John Konchar is an interesting undrafted free agent possibility. Great all-around skillset for a combo guard. There's a handful of mid-major seniors putting up big counting stats (in his case, a per-40 line of 23 points, 10 boards, 6 assists, 2 steals, and 1 block), but out of all of them he seems like the most likely to translate some of that impact to the next level. Scouting video from last year:

 

[I'mWithDan]

Here's the first results of a mini side project I have been working on.

This is a variation on game score, which is a holistic box score stat. The below takes in to account the difference between a prospects full season / and his full season minus a cross section of his most efficient games...... and then makes an NBA projection with an accompanying confidence score.

The confidence levels were determined based on a sampling of the top 200 qualifying PER NBA seasons. Based on NBA data, only truly great players produced a confidence score above .800.....the lower the score, the larger the range of career outcomes.

The concept here is pretty simple.....the reason great players are great is because they are, generally, insanely consistent. And the true measure of a good player is how he manages to impact a game when he doesn't have his "A" stuff.

This is manually very intensive, as we are relying on static CSV imports from CBBREF but I did get the aggregate top 10 done. I left off Garland because he doesn't have enough data.

The sanity check was just spot players from 2011 and on.....unfortunately college game log data only goes back that far on CBBREF. But I wanted to see what this spit out for a mix of guys that had varying outcomes, taken at different points.....and see where this would have rated them. Kawhi and Bennet are the outliers....but Bennett atleast had a really low confidence score. Kawhi had a lower projection (second option) but extremely high confidence he was hitting it.

For now, I haven't made any adjustments for age or SOS but just wanted to share.....I was pretty surprised by three things.....JA 1. being so high and 2. his confidence being through the roof. Additionally was very surprised Rui is considered a sure fire All-Star, with relatively high confidence.... projected in the same range of guys like Davis and Simmons who were #1 picks.....and just how luke warm it is on Barrett, relative to his mock draft projections and prospect ranking. Not surprising but kind of surprising....it pegs Zion’s floor at likely All-Star.....a projection a few of the #1 picks had as their likely best outcome.

Keep in mind these ratings should pull down some as each player gets over 30/35 games played......but just thought I would share this. At this point, it's a work in progress but interesting. This would only be one data point you would consider, in addition to things like NBA frame, Athleticism, etc.....

Can anyone think of any other recent small school players drafted high? Not just successful ones. With JA and Dame, there may be some SOS bias that needs a small correction.

 

[Lee]

Here's the first results of a mini side project I have been working on.

This is a variation on game score, which is a holistic box score stat. The below takes in to account the difference between a prospects full season / and his full season minus a cross section of his most efficient games...... and then makes an NBA projection with an accompanying confidence score.

The confidence levels were determined based on a sampling of the top 200 qualifying PER NBA seasons. Based on NBA data, only truly great players produced a confidence score above .800.....the lower the score, the larger the range of career outcomes.

The concept here is pretty simple.....the reason great players are great is because they are, generally, insanely consistent. And the true measure of a good player is how he manages to impact a game when he doesn't have his "A" stuff.

This is manually very intensive, as we are relying on static CSV imports from CBBREF but I did get the aggregate top 10 done. I left off Garland because he doesn't have enough data.

The sanity check was just spot players from 2011 and on.....unfortunately college game log data only goes back that far on CBBREF. But I wanted to see what this spit out for a mix of guys that had varying outcomes, taken at different points.....and see where this would have rated them. Kawhi and Bennet are the outliers....but Bennett atleast had a really low confidence score. Kawhi had a lower projection (second option) but extremely high confidence he was hitting it.

For now, I haven't made any adjustments for age or SOS but just wanted to share.....I was pretty surprised by three things.....JA 1. being so high and 2. his confidence being through the roof. Additionally was very surprised Rui is considered a sure fire All-Star, with relatively high confidence.... projected in the same range of guys like Davis and Simmons who were #1 picks.....and just how luke warm it is on Barrett, relative to his mock draft projections and prospect ranking. Not surprising but kind of surprising....it pegs Zion’s floor at likely All-Star.....a projection a few of the #1 picks had as their likely outcome.

Keep in mind these ratings will likely pull down as each player gets over 30/35 games played......but just thought I would share this. At this point, it's a work in progress but interesting. This would only be one data point you would consider, in addition to things like NBA frame, Athleticism, etc.....

Who is the top guy all time from 2011-2018 out of curiosity.