2019 NBA Draft

[Lee]

Kind of illustrates how rare it is actually.

I am skeptical. I guess he could be the next guy, but as Nathan pointed out, Collin had a better year at a better school at a younger age. Morant is more of a high flyer, but I am not sure his ceiling is even higher. I think there are a lot of wings in the same tier as Morant, and I would take one of those, personally.

Not really though.

I would say a smaller Division 1 school is still higher level than high school and tons of guys went straight from high school without the help of a dad who taught them how to play at pro level.

 

[Nathan S]

Hunter looks like an NBA player to me. Everything he does tells me it will translate. I don't see an allstar there, but like Thad Young type of guy.

Hunter's a little weird...he's a good scorer, but he never really takes over on offense like I expect him to. He's actually averaging fewer shot attempts than Jerome and Guy. Similarly, he seems like a good defender, but he only rarely gets steals or blocks...he actually has the second lowest steal+block rate on his team. Would appreciate a good scouting report on him.

 

[Cavatt]

Hunter's a little weird...he's a good scorer, but he never really takes over on offense like I expect him to. He's actually averaging fewer shot attempts than Jerome and Guy. Similarly, he seems like a good defender, but he only rarely gets steals or blocks...he actually has the second lowest steal+block rate on his team. Would appreciate a good scouting report on him.

Agreed. I think if he was a great scorer, or a great shotblocker steal guy he would be top 5 for sure. He is really smooth and measured. I just see him as a 10 year vet and being annoyed at him keeping his team in it in the playoffs, but I don't see a 1st option.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

What can I say...it's a weird draft. I wouldn't have Morant or even RJ as clear top-5 guys in many drafts. Who's in your top-5 these days? Culver and Hunter are the closest things to conventional-looking top-5 prospects as far as I can tell, but they've gone lukewarm recently.

Zion at 1, Culver at 2. Then a huge group after that which I'm not sure about, but all have a shot at top 5 still for me. Barrett, Reddish, Porter Jr, Garland, Hunter, Morant, and even Little still possibly. I'd maybe throw Langford into that group too really. I'm really hoping the Porter stuff gets sorted out with USC. I could honestly see myself ending up having him top 3. While the top 5 of the draft is pretty wide open, I still think it's fairly restricted to a group of 9-10 guys. It's not wide open in the sense that there's a case for anyone ranked 2-20 imo.

Also, an opinion I've not heard elsewhere yet...I've mentioned him in the past on here, but I think KZ Okpala may be in my top 10. In time I think you may hear his name in that range more often if his shooting sustains. I recommend watching him if you've not yet.

 

[Nathan S]

Zion at 1, Culver at 2. Then a huge group after that which I'm not sure about, but all have a shot at top 5 still for me. Barrett, Reddish, Porter Jr, Garland, Hunter, Morant, and even Little still possibly. I'd maybe throw Langford into that group too really. I'm really hoping the Porter stuff gets sorted out with USC. I could honestly see myself ending up having him top 3. While the top 5 of the draft is pretty wide open, I still think it's fairly restricted to a group of 9-10 guys. It's not wide open in the sense that there's a case for anyone ranked 2-20 imo.

Also, an opinion I've not heard elsewhere yet...I've mentioned him in the past on here, but I think KZ Okpala may be in my top 10. In time I think you may hear his name in that range more often if his shooting sustains. I recommend watching him if you've not yet.

I haven't watched much of Okpala, but I feel like you have to be valuing outside shooting too much to have him above Williams. Williams crushes him in every other statistical area, is a consensus top-5 player in the country playing for the #1 ranked team, but his lack of a proven 3-point shot drops him below guys like Okpala? That's just crazy to me.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

I haven't watched much of Okpala, but I feel like you have to be valuing outside shooting too much to have him above Williams. Williams crushes him in every other statistical area, is a consensus top-5 player in the country playing for the #1 ranked team, but his lack of a proven 3-point shot drops him below guys like Okpala? That's just crazy to me.

Okpala has much more creation upside and is easily already a better shooter than Williams will ever be imo... those are the two most important traits offensively for their archetype for me. I also expect Okpala to have a few inches on Williams in reach as well... and although probably not as smart or versatile of a defender yet, I don't think Okpala will be a negative on that end in time.

If Grant Williams doesn't shoot from the NBA line what do you think his offensive role will be?

 

[I'mWithDan]

I've watched him twice now... and while I like his game and the fact that he's helped lead his team to a #1 ranking, I don't see a top 5 pick whatsoever. I could argue late lottery at best, but to me he's a 15-25 range guy.

What does he offer that translates immediately to the next level that you like as a top 5?

I haven't watched a ton of game film on Williams, but I will state (in addition to what Nathan posted), that analytic models just love him.

I'm not saying that's the end all be all but, to me, the reason Williams is trending towards being more of a top 5-10 guy is that in addition to models saying he's producing at a high lottery level, he also has decent size, good athleticism (from what I can tell), high BBallIQ, rounded box score and will additionally grade out well in interviews. Typically, those are the players that get taken far higher than what you are proposing (15-25).

I mentioned Williams a few pages pack, I think 3Ball did too and Nathan has consistently brought him up as well prior to that, so it isn't even a new thing. The best way I can put it is he was piquing models and scouts' interest earlier this season. That doesn't guarantee anything, I am just pointing out that a lot of statistical models were calling him out as a really underrated NBA prospect prior to Tennessee's national emergence........and his play has been affirming those early returns.

It's possible he goes mid first but given how many prospects have died on the vine thus far, I'd imagine someone like Williams, when all the dust settles, is a candidate to slot in to that 5-10 range as teams do a deeper evaluation of him. With how some top guys have performed, nothing would surprise me at this point......not even someone like Williams going in the top 5.

 

[Nathan S]

Okpala has much more creation upside and is easily already a better shooter than Williams will ever be imo... those are the two most important traits offensively for their archetype for me. I also expect Okpala to have a few inches on Williams in reach as well... and although probably not as smart or versatile of a defender yet, I don't think Okpala will be a negative on that end in time.

If Grant Williams doesn't shoot from the NBA line what do you think his offensive role will be?

Are there any ~80% foul shooters in the NBA who aren't at least passable 3-point shooters? DeRozan, I guess? It seems overly pessimistic to assume that Williams won't be able to make NBA 3's just because he doesn't shoot college threes. Qualitatively, the reason he doesn't shoot more college threes is because he's vastly more dangerous with the ball in his hands than he is as a floor spacer, not because he can't make an open three.

As for creation upside, I see Grant Williams scoring at a higher rate on higher efficiency with more assists and fewer turnovers than Okpala. His combination of scoring, playmaking ability, size, and track record leading a top team is something you almost never see. I don't know if he'll develop into an elite offensive player in the NBA, but he seems like as close to a sure thing as you could possibly find if you're looking for a solid second or third option type.

 

[3 Ball...GOT IT]

Are there any ~80% foul shooters in the NBA who aren't at least passable 3-point shooters? DeRozan, I guess? It seems overly pessimistic to assume that Williams won't be able to make NBA 3's just because he doesn't shoot college threes. Qualitatively, the reason he doesn't shoot more college threes is because he's vastly more dangerous with the ball in his hands than he is as a floor spacer, not because he can't make an open three.

As for creation upside, I see Grant Williams scoring at a higher rate on higher efficiency with more assists and fewer turnovers than Okpala. His combination of scoring, playmaking ability, size, and track record leading a top team is something you almost never see. I don't know if he'll develop into an elite offensive player in the NBA, but he seems like as close to a sure thing as you could possibly find if you're looking for a solid second or third option type.

He gets his counting stats through a combination of his play, but also opportunity. Those opportunities come via situations that I don't think he will receive in the NBA. Their offense runs a lot through him in the post from what I've seen. I'd be very surprised if he was used in that way by whoever drafts him. I don't have the synergy #'s but I'd expect his offense would be derived primarily from post-ups and iso's inside the 3 point line.

Okpala on the other hand creates almost entirely from the perimeter - exactly what you want on the NBA level. He's an upside play, so by no means do I think he's a surefire player whatsoever lol.

There's plenty of solid FT shooters who don't have a reliable 3PT shot. Derrick Rose, Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroeder, Lamarcus Aldridge, Al-Farouq Aminu, SGA, Derozan, Valanciunas, and Enes Kanter just after skimming the FT% leaders list really quick.

So again I don't know what his offensive role would be at the NBA level if his 3PT shot doesn't develop. I'm not saying it won't, but when a guy has what I see as a pretty big swing skill on the offensive end (and talking about him in the top 5) there's no way you can dismiss it.

Also I have no idea how not shooting 3's very well in college making me believe he won't be a good NBA 3pt shooter is pessimistic lol.

 

[Nathan S]

He gets his counting stats through a combination of his play, but also opportunity. Those opportunities come via situations that I don't think he will receive in the NBA. Their offense runs a lot through him in the post from what I've seen. I'd be very surprised if he was used in that way by whoever drafts him. I don't have the synergy #'s but I'd expect his offense would be derived primarily from post-ups and iso's inside the 3 point line.

Okpala on the other hand creates almost entirely from the perimeter - exactly what you want on the NBA level. He's an upside play, so by no means do I think he's a surefire player whatsoever lol.

There's plenty of solid FT shooters who don't have a reliable 3PT shot. Derrick Rose, Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroeder, Lamarcus Aldridge, Al-Farouq Aminu, SGA, Derozan, Valanciunas, and Enes Kanter just after skimming the FT% leaders list really quick.

So again I don't know what his offensive role would be at the NBA level if his 3PT shot doesn't develop. I'm not saying it won't, but when a guy has what I see as a pretty big swing skill on the offensive end (and talking about him in the top 5) there's no way you can dismiss it.

Also I have no idea how not shooting 3's very well in college making me believe he won't be a good NBA 3pt shooter is pessimistic lol.

He does create most of his offense inside the arc, but I don't see why that style would not be tenable in the NBA...think Paul Millsap, or a more score-first version of Draymond Green. He's not a slow-it-down post up dinosaur; he's active, decisive, and gets his points within the flow of the offense.

As for his 3-point shooting, out of the guys you listed, DeRozan is the only non-center who's actually shooting poorly from 3 this season. The others, while not known for their accuracy, are certainly good enough that defenses can't simply leave them open on the perimeter. And the centers, I'd argue, probably have the ability to develop a decent 3-point shot if they made a serious effort to. I'd also point out that Williams hasn't been inaccurate from 3; it's just the sample size that's lacking. Of course, if I was actually making the decision to draft him, I'd bring him in for a workout and make sure his jumpshot doesn't break down in some gruesome way when he tries to shoot NBA 3's, but I would be really surprised if it did.

 

[I'mWithDan]

He does create most of his offense inside the arc, but I don't see why that style would not be tenable in the NBA...think Paul Millsap, or a more score-first version of Draymond Green. He's not a slow-it-down post up dinosaur; he's active, decisive, and gets his points within the flow of the offense.

As for his 3-point shooting, out of the guys you listed, DeRozan is the only non-center who's actually shooting poorly from 3 this season. The others, while not known for their accuracy, are certainly good enough that defenses can't simply leave them open on the perimeter. And the centers, I'd argue, probably have the ability to develop a decent 3-point shot if they made a serious effort to. I'd also point out that Williams hasn't been inaccurate from 3; it's just the sample size that's lacking. Of course, if I was actually making the decision to draft him, I'd bring him in for a workout and make sure his jumpshot doesn't break down in some gruesome way when he tries to shoot NBA 3's, but I would be really surprised if it did.

A shorter, more athletic Marc Gasol was an interesting comparison I heard. I think with the eveness of his contribution, that is a good way to frame him as a player. He’s not overwhelming anywhere but you look across his stat sheet and he just does a little of everything well. And Gasol has made a shooting progression out to NBA range but initially just did not atttempt many outside shots.

To the post up point, it’s easier to build a player inside out than outside in. Teams would much rather project shooting than they would interior scoring, which is much, much harder for a player to learn or grow in to.

Mechanically, there really isn’t a reason Williams can’t be a successful shooter. I think he’s more limited by UT’s system and how they use him than he is by any sort of actual shooting capability.

I also love his P&R / off ball potential at the NBA level. A player with that back to the basket skill and realiable FT stroke can pin down or roll and be fed the ball in crunch time if teams try to switch.

 

[Nathan S]

A shorter, more athletic Marc Gasol was an interesting comparison I heard. I think with the eveness of his contribution, that is a good way to frame him as a player. He’s not overwhelming anywhere but you look across his stat sheet and he just does a little of everything well. And Gasol has made a shooting progression out to NBA range but initially just did not atttempt many outside shots.

To the post up point, it’s easier to build a player inside out than outside in. Teams would much rather project shooting than they would interior scoring, which is much, much harder for a player to learn or grow in to.

Mechanically, there really isn’t a reason Williams can’t be a successful shooter. I think he’s more limited by UT’s system and how they use him than he is by any sort of actual shooting capability.

I also love his P&R potential at the NBA level. A player with that back to the basket skill and realiable FT stroke can pin down and be fed the ball in crunch time if teams try to switch.

Hmm...the height and athleticism difference makes it hard to wrap my head around that one, but I think I see what you're getting at

I was thinking about this more, and I realized another important point is that he does already spend plenty of time with the ball in his hands behind the 3-point line...and unlike many bigs he's an actual threat to drive or make an advanced pass from that position (or even shoot, if the defender isn't going to respect his jumpshot). He's not a guy who needs to establish post position before he gets the ball in order to be dangerous, and he's not a guy the defense can take out of the game by denying entry passes; he's more versatile than that. He likes to face the basket, and he likes to see the floor. It's his style of play as much as anything that makes me think he's likely to keep expanding his game.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Hmm...the height and athleticism difference makes it hard to wrap my head around that one, but I think I see what you're getting at

I was thinking about this more, and I realized another important point is that he does already spend plenty of time with the ball in his hands behind the 3-point line...and unlike many bigs he's an actual threat to drive or make an advanced pass from that position (or even shoot, if the defender isn't going to respect his jumpshot). He's not a guy who needs to establish post position before he gets the ball in order to be dangerous, and he's not a guy the defense can take out of the game by denying entry passes; he's more versatile than that. He likes to face the basket, and he likes to see the floor. It's his style of play as much as anything that makes me think he's likely to keep expanding his game.

Haha, sure.....it’s a broader profile of what he does.

Physical 2 way player, no absolutely stand out skills but good across the board, High IQ, good passer, shooting potential, great touch for a bigger frame.

Those tend to be tougher guys to assess, vs someone who has one elite trait.

The only thing Williams does do at a pretty high rate right now is foul though. NBA tends to allow more physical play but that’s the only thing I would nitpick him about. He’s likely going to have to guard 4’s and possibly some 3’s at the NBA level and I’m curious if he can do that without racking up fouls.

 

[Nathan S]

Haha, sure.....it’s a broader profile of what he does.

Physical 2 way player, no absolutely stand out skills but good across the board, High IQ, good passer, shooting potential, great touch for a bigger frame.

Those tend to be tougher guys to assess, vs someone who has one elite trait.

The only thing Williams does do at a pretty high rate right now is foul though. NBA tends to allow more physical play but that’s the only thing I would nitpick him about. He’s likely going to have to guard 4’s and possibly some 3’s at the NBA level and I’m curious if he can do that without racking up fouls.

I remember him fouling out near the end of the Gonzaga and Kansas games, but big picture his foul rate has gone down from 5.2 to 4.6 to now 3.8 per 40 minutes over the course of his career. That's not too abnormally high...and as I mentioned earlier in this thread, I think it's easier to get a guy who's playing slightly too physical to dial it back as opposed to teaching a typically passive guy to play with more physicality.

He really is a statistical outlier when it comes to drawing fouls, though. He's making free throws at an incredibly high rate, significantly higher than even guys like Morant and Zion, and he's maintained that rate throughout his college career so it's no fluke. I'm not sure it'll translate to the NBA immediately, but it speaks to how hard to defend he is at the college level.

 

[Derek]

Tennessee struggling on the road with a depleted Vandy squad, but Grant Williams has 33 points on 8-11 from the floor and 17-17 at the line with 3 blocks.