2023-24 Playoff Series #1 | Game #5 | Magic @ Cavs | April 30, 2024

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Cavaliers get back home with a chance to right the ship and regain the series lead. A win is absolutely imperative if they are to win this series. They can't count on winning Games 6 and 7. LeBron doesn't play here anymore.

Everybody saw what happened in Orlando. It was a double massacre as the Cavs were outscored by 61 points the last two games. However, no team has won a road game yet.

The question is whether there is anything Bickerstaff can do to turn things around.

We have to find a way to — when they’re pushing us off our spots, we can still find ways to execute. … Whatever facet that means for each player is different, but I think that’s where that comes in. Being able to stick together in our offense. - Donovan Mitchell

The Magic have been very good at pushing the Cavaliers off their spots. Whether the Cavs are capable of doing anything to counter it might determine the outcome. Mitchell says it starts with him, but he's not the only problem.

In four games against Orlando this postseason, Mitchell has more turnovers (15) than 3s (seven). He’s shooting 25 percent from long range. - Joe Vardon, The Athletic

The Magic’s reserves outscored the Cavs’ bench 43-15, but halfway through the fourth quarter, that tally was 38-4. - Joe Vardon

If the Cavs are to have any chance Mitchell needs to get back to being Donovan Mitchell, the Cavs have to figure out how to execute their offense effectively against the best defense in the NBA after the break, and the bench unit of Okoro, Niang, and LeVert need to start hitting some shots.

Evan Mobley said they used the two days between games to tweak some things.

Got to make our adjustments,” Mobley said following Monday’s practice. “Not significant. But definitely some changes, some tweaks here and there that we went over today, and I feel like those adjustments are definitely going to play as well. We’ve got different options on different things that are based on how they’re playing defense on us. We’re going to try to execute those.”

Donovan Mitchell and JB Bickerstaff focused on better execution.

“I think execution is part of the adjustments,” star guard Donovan Mitchell said. “How you execute in different situations, what they’re taking away, what they’re giving to us, what we’re giving them, what we’re taking away. I think as whole, I think we’ve had a good two days of kind of figuring things out where we want to go from here.”

I’ve made my comments about the adjustments,” Bickerstaff said. “The game comes down to execution and who plays better basketball. There’s 10 million ways to skin a cat, but if you execute your way better, you’re probably going to give yourself a chance to win. So that’s what our focus is. Learn from what happened before, improve on it, but just be the better executing team.”

The Magic have momentum, soaring confidence, and are flexing their muscles. The Cavs are talking about tweaks and executing better against a physical defense. They’ve had two days to do some soul-searching and come up with a new plan. But with the flawed roster construction and Mitchell less than 100% after aggravating a knee injury, I don’t know if a plan exists that has a chance.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Speaking of the Magic pushing the Cavaliers off their spots, there was a play Saturday where one of the Cavs' guards had the ball and Allen got position near the rim. Rather than let him get a pass near the rim, Wendall Carter Jr took two steps and smashed into Allen, knocking him five feet away. Carter's momentum took him with Allen and as Allen was falling to the floor he grabbed Carter's arm. Allen was called for an offensive foul.

If the refs are going to let the Magic bigs treat Mobley and Allen like blocking sleds anytime they get close to the rim, the Cavs are in trouble.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Niang is 1 of 11 on triple attempts despite 10 of them being classified as “open” or “wide open” by NBA.com’s data tracking. As a reference point, Niang shot 39.5% on such looks during the regular season. - Chris Fedor

So of the 10 three-pointers he's missed, 9 have been open or wide open. If Niang isn't making a high percentage of open 3's he's of no value.

For the Cavs to beat a taller and more physical team they have to be better dribblers, passers, and shooters. As tall and athletic as the Magic there are going to be a lot contested shots, making it even more important that when the Cavs get an open shot they make it. That needs to start happening tonight.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

They came together as a team. We were trying to do it individually. We can’t do that, especially at this point of the season. - Darius Garland

 

[ice cream man]

I know we're back home, but all signs point to Cavs being cooked. We're not all of a sudden going to turn into a much better rebounding team. JBB isn't going to make a big change in his rotation. Mitchell isn't going to be 100% healthy. The only thing that can save us is making 3's.

 

[Peacedog]

It's odd to me that the Cavs are actually a 4.5 point favorite tonight. If I was a betting man, my money would be on the Magic.

I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Peacedog]

I'm a huge Cavs fan and hope for the best. But it's tough to stay positive after what we saw in Orlando.

 

[CavsFan07]

It's odd to me that the Cavs are actually a 4.5 point favorite tonight. If I was a betting man, my money would be on the Magic.

I hope I'm wrong.

Came here to say the exact same thing. If you're a Parlay Builder, Magic ML at +170 is wayyyyyy too high and increases parlays drastically.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope the Cavs respond to the gut check and send a message.

 

[Ethan]

Whoever wins the first "away" game will win the series.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

I continue to be of the opinion that any outcome that makes JB’s retention more likely, is a poor outcome.

 

[Peacedog]

I continue to be of the opinion that any outcome that makes JB’s retention more likely, is a poor outcome.

Spoken like a non-Cavs fan. We should all be happy if our team wins.

Bickerstaff needs to win this series AND take the Celtics to the limit (at a minimum) to keep his job. If this happens (maybe 10% chance of that) I'm fine with him returning.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Jason Lloyd has a few notes:

The advanced metrics on Mitchell in the playoffs the last three years are jarring. His net rating over those postseasons combined is a minus-19.5. This isn’t just the knee, folks.

But over the last three postseasons, Mitchell’s offensive rating in consecutive years is 107.3, 106.1 and this year it has sunk to an even 100 through four games. His rating throughout the past few regular seasons has hovered around 117.

The postseason decline in Mitchell over the last three years, two of them while in Cleveland, is alarming at best and catastrophic at worst...In nine playoff games in a Cavs jersey, Mitchell is shooting 27 percent from 3 (20 of 73).

On “wide open” 3-point attempts during the two games in Orlando, the Cavs shot 3 of 19. Presumably, they’ll shoot it better at home, where they shot 43 percent on “wide open” 3s in Games 1 and 2...They are the worst 3-point shooting team in this postseason (26.7 percent).
(How do you explain missing 16 of 19 "wide open" 3's? It's not like Allen, Mobley, or Tristan Thompson were taking them).

The Cavs have the lowest offensive rating in any third quarter of any postseason since at least 1997 because that’s how far back the league’s tracking data goes. That’s the last 27 postseasons. How do you win this series? Win the third quarter. Or at least, don’t have the worst third quarters in the last three decades (at least) of NBA basketball.
Franz Wagner isn’t Orlando’s best player, but he outscored the Cavs by himself, 12-10, in the third quarter of Game 4. Now here’s the part that temporarily removed my jaw from my body: He has scored 24 points in less than four minutes while Mobley has guarded him in this series. It just doesn’t seem possible. It feels like a typo. I checked and triple-checked the league’s data. Wagner has made 10 of 14 shots when Mobley is the matchup. And he’s done all that in less than four minutes.

I don’t know that I’ve ever seen numbers like that, particularly against someone with the reputation (and game film) of being an elite defender. But Wagner is cooking him. Mobley’s shot is what it is at this point, but he absolutely, positively has to win on the defensive end of the floor. Especially against a mid-tier talent like Wagner.

(I think Lloyd is missing on this one. 14 shots in four minutes comes out to a shot every 17 seconds. Wagner has not been dribbling for 17 seconds and then shooting. There were times when Mobley forced Franz to pass off because he had no shot. That doesn't show up in the stats. It's not as bad as it looks. However, but 10-for-14 is very good. It looks like Wagner is making good shoot/don't shoot decisions).


So it comes down to Mitchell playing better, the Cavs as a team hitting more wide open shots, and better third quarters. Both games in Orlando were lost in the third quarter. It would help a lot of the Magic shoot tonight the way they shot in the first two games in Cleveland, but I'm not counting on that.

 

[dirtywax]

Friend told me Windhorst was roasting JBB on The Really Big Show.

 

[Peacedog]

That is a SHOCKING statistic. Maybe the worst post season net rating over a 3 year period for the "best player" on a team, ever?

 

[GonzoRatso88]

Windy on WKNR right now, here are the highlights:

-Biggest game in Donovan Mitchell's career with Cavs and one of the biggest in his career. You need your star player and everyone understands this. He has to deliver tonight. They want to give him the biggest contract in franchise history.

-The 3rd quarter on Saturday was frustrating because Orlando didn't do anything special. If you get run out on the road in the playoffs (it will happen) but the Cavs could not run competent offense. Jarrett Allen has been the best offensive player for the Cavs and that is a problem.

-Jonathan Isaac has as many 3 pointers as any Cavs player in this series. He isn't even a full time player. This is unacceptable. The Cavs cannot get an open shot and there is a guy on the bench (Sam Merrill) who would strike fear in the Magic because he can shoot well. It shows the lack of preparation and adjustments the team is making.

-The 3 point shot is a weapon for the Cavs and they need to generate/shoot them more. He thinks they are due for a big 3 point shooting game tonight. They have to do a better job of being able to take care of their business.

-JB had the Cavs ready to play games 1-2 but not 3-4. The Magic put Jalen Suggs out to guard Donovan Mitchell and sometimes are double teaming. If they are going to double team Donovan, you have to have a 3 point shooting lineup. You are asking to give up 3s if you double Donovan. The Cavs have the weapons to beat the double team. Jalen Suggs is playing excellent defensive and going over screens too. The Cavs are not doing the counters well but are playing good defense.

-The Magic are shooting 31% from 3 this should not be beating you. They have to have a better game plan for tonight and he could not believe they did not have counters ready for game 4. Evan Mobley has had some moments this series but needs to be better rebounding. They were weak on game 4 and were turning the ball over. They have to play strong like they did in games 1 and 2. They can be strong and the only Cav that can say they are doing their job is Allen.

-Donovan has played great in the playoffs before but he cannot go down this way in this series. The Cavs have the weapons and are equipped to beat the Magic they cannot go out not deploying this stuff.

-If the Cavs don't have a better game plan and preparation for game 4, you have to look at the coach. The Cavs went on that run in January/February with 1 guard and he had to play the team that he had. The longer this has gone on the more Windy is convinced he is going to re-sign. It is a referendum on if this team can do this as constructed. If you are going to lose, don't lose because you don't have a lineup full of 3 point shooters. They have the advantage of the 3 point shot and the Magic are living in fear of their 3 point shooting and are beating the Cavs at it.

-If Mitchell re-signs with the Cavs, you want to make sure his knee is OK. The Magic are not a better team than the Cavs but the NY Knicks were last year. This is a very very important night for the Cavs.

-LeBron will opt out of his contract in LA. They did not do anything at the trade deadline and he will do it to apply pressure to the Lakers. There is a good chance his son Bronny will be in the NBA Draft. The Pelicans can take LA's pick this year or next year but it is likely that Pelicans choose next years pick because the Draft is better in 2025. The Lakers will have a 1st and 2nd round pick. If he opts out of his contract and becomes a free agent, he can add a no-trade clause to his deal. He will be mute about what he does.