2023-24 Regular Season Thread

[Cement]

 

[Rich]

That was against bad teams and an easy schedule in terms of back to back games. What you're talking about didn't work as well against good teams even during that run. It's wishful thinking that you were winning a playoff series without Garland and Mobley. Teams were going to scout CPJ and Merrill. They have limitations and they were going to be exposed. If you thought Okoro had become a 48% 3-point shooter overnight and that was sustainable I really don't know what to say.

We were fine before Mitchell got hurt and the last two games were very winnable without him. The reasons for losing those games have nothing to do with Garland and little to do with Mobley. Play style had nothing to do with LeVert going 3-21, or guys getting sick, or Niang being awful but getting minutes over Wade. Playstyle had nothing to do with us missing 10 free throws in a close game last night.

But if you think switching back means were going to be able to start blowing out teams and stacking up wins again, you better buckle up. We have a West Coast trip, a bunch of back to backs and two five game in seven night stretches. We're in for a bumpy ride even when Mitchell comes back.

Man, Philly was switching small dudes onto Mobley and just baiting him into trying to do something and he was just falling over and landing out of bounds.

If you think he and Garland aren't gonna get targeted and exposed in the post-season again, you're dreaming.

Mobley's presence is absolutely crushing the offense. It's proven in any type of metric you wanna look at, but it's pretty easily observed just watching the game when its on.

But in his 997 minutes this season, the Cavs have an offensive rating of 113.0 with Mobley ON the court.

That would be good for 24th in the league, just ahead of the Pistons.

With him off the court, 1654 minutes, it's 119.7. Almost 7 full points better.

The Cavs are 5 points better with him OFF the court. And considering we have plenty of minutes to go on this point, this statement below is absolutely just wishcasting.

We were fine before Mitchell got hurt and the last two games were very winnable without him. The reasons for losing those games have nothing to do with Garland and little to do with Mobley.

You talk about the schedule but Philadelphia without Embiid is a bad basketball team. They're 4-10. And two of those 4 are against us in these last 4 games.

 

[Rich]

Let's kill the "We're playing better teams" nonsense asap. Philly has been absolute dogshit w/o Embiid. Garbage.

Chicago, who gave that game away, is garbage.

Orlando is a play-in team.

This has not been murderers row here.


The downturn was somewhat expected as a regression.


But I don't know how much evidence people need to have before finally just admitting "hey, maybe these two dudes aren't currently making the team better."


I am a massive Evan Mobley fan. I want him to succeed at the highest level.


And yet, it's a stone cold fact the Cavs have been markedly better this year when he's off the floor. Not just a little bit better. But substantially better.

And better with Garland off the floor, but to a smaller degree.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

This team is tucked

 

[Futuredome]

Rich, your looking at sample size. I mean, if Merrill goes 3-4 from 3 and Wade hits a 3 and the bigs stop wussing out, things change quickly and your stats are destroyed. Mitchell 's own numbers were bad until January when we started going against fairies of the nba, did it improve and he started playing better. It's called a slump rich. It's up to Jb to work it out. Garland needs to go full monty and rip 20-25 shots some games. Patience.

 

[Pierre Pan]

Donovan Mitchell upgraded to PROBABLE for tomorrow’s game against the Wizards

 

[PIP]

Pretty sure that’s @KI4MVP

 

[ChicagoCavFan]

Looking at the cleaningtheglass.com on/off updated numbers, it's pretty striking. Four players are positive and the rest are negative.

Mitchell +15.4 points per 100 possessions
Strus +8.0
Wade +6.8
Allen +6.7

Garland -1.0
Porter -2.5
Okoro -2.6
Thompson -2.8
Merrill -3.6
LeVert -4.4
Mobley -5.6
Niang -8.5

It's amazing that a team that is 36-19 and has the league's 4th best point differential at +5.3 per game has 8 of 12 players with a negative on/off.

What really jumps out is Mobley at -5.6. He's the only starter who is significantly negative. The Cavs are actually 1.2 points BETTER defensively with Mobley on the floor but they're 6.8 points WORSE offensively. It makes sense - he simply can't shoot except for dunks and layups. He's hitting just 37% of his shots in the 4-14 foot range, which is critical for a big.

The other sore thumb is the difference between Wade and Niang, who share the backup PF job behind Mobley. The Cavs are a whopping 15.3 points better with Wade at the 4 rather than Niang.

Niang is the opposite of Mobley; the Cavs are just 0.2 points worse offensively but 8.3 points worse defensively, putting him in the 3rd percentile among NBA forwards. IOW, 97% of the league's forwards are better than him defensively, which matches the eyeball test.

With Dean Wade on the floor the Cavs are 8.6 points better defensively, so giving Niang's minutes to Wade makes the Cavs almost 17 points better defensively and just 1.6 points worse offensively.

Despite the fact that Niang is almost 31 years old, the Cavs gave him a 3-year, $25.5 million contract, every penny guaranteed. Not a great decision for a player that makes the team 8.5 points worse when he's on the floor, which is worse even than guys with little or no NBA experience like Porter and Merrill.

And there's not much hope for improvement since 100% of Niang's problem is on the defensive end. He's not going to get quicker or develop a vertical jump. If he were mired in a shooting slump there would be hope, but he's not slumping defensively. He's just old, fat, and slow, and none of that is going to change.

The one hope for Georges is that his shooting from the corner has been awful. Last year he hit 52% of his corner 3's; this year he's at 31%. His previous career low was 37% and he was between 37-39% for three more years before busting out for 52% last year. If he can get that 31% number up into the 40's for the rest of the season it will push his on/off number up a bit, assuming his defense doesn't get any worse.

My hope is that JBB is giving Niang consistent minutes during the regular season to demonstrate to the front office that he is unplayable in the playoffs so they won't give JBB flak for not including Niang in the rotation. That's the only justification I can think of for giving him minutes when the Cavs are demonstrably way better with Wade backing up Mobley.

As for Evan, he has a ways to go. Last night was a great example. The Cavs only needed 105 points to win, but with Mitchell out they scored 97. Mobley had 8 points in 27 minutes and missed four of his six free throw attempts. The Cavs were -11 when he was on the floor and lost by 7. Evan made just 3 field goals, two dunks and a layup.

Hopefully he'll develop a reliable fallaway or jump hook so he can score in that 4-10 foot range. That should be his project this off-season. He's improved his 3-point shooting, but the short mid-range jumper may be even more important.

I seem to recall some early season games where Mobley and a few others had monstrous negative numbers due to some out of the ordinary situations. I recall thinking he had a huge hole to dig out if - almost worst in the league.

Doesn’t make the metric any better/worse, but I don’t recall it being an accurate indictment on his play.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

It will be interesting to see how JBB deals with this come the playoffs. Does he bench Mobley down the stretch in a close game? Does he put Mobley and Allen on the floor together for defense and count on Mitchell and Garland to break down the defense and get buckets? Or does he go with Allen and four shooters?

We know the Mitchell/Strus/Okoro/Wade/Allen unit is da bomb. Does JBB have the guts to put Mobley and Garland on the bench when the game is on the line?

Obviously Mobley needs to play as much as possible during the regular season as his development as a player is critical to the Cavs' long term success. But right now they're a better team with Allen at center and Mobley on the bench.

 

[Jscc]

We know the Mitchell/Strus/Okoro/Wade/Allen unit is da bomb. Does JBB have the guts to put Mobley and Garland on the bench when the game is on the line?

If he wants to lose his job and if the Cavs want to lose the game, yes.

We already saw this two seasons ago when DG was the only playmaker and dribble penetrator. Defenses would just deny him the ball or triple/double him to get it out of his hands and that was the end of the Cavs' offense. Putting Mitchell in his place isn't going to change that defense.

Shooters are also worthless if nobody on the offense can penetrate and break the defense down. And neither Okoro, Strus, Wade, or Allen are going to do that. If the Cavs consider that a decent strategy then they should just start planning for the off-season.

 

[inliner311]

CW43 will air 5 Cavs games in March and April. I wonder if this is to test out to see how many viewers they can pull in with local broadcast TV if Bally's sports goes under.

Cavs & Gray Television to Broadcast Select Games for FREE

The Cavaliers and Gray Television will broadcast five games for free on WUAB Channel 43 across Northeast Ohio and select markets across the state this season.

www.nba.com

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Shooters are also worthless if nobody on the offense can penetrate and break the defense down. And neither Okoro, Strus, Wade, or Allen are going to do that. If the Cavs consider that a decent strategy then they should just start planning for the off-season.

The unit of Mitchell/Strus/Okoro/Wade/Allen is outscoring opponents by 20.2 points per 100 possessions according to cleaningtheglass.com. That's for 484 possessions. Put Garland and Mobley in for Okoro and Wade and it drops to 5.0 points.

Maybe that first lineup doesn't look good on paper but the numbers are the numbers. They're scoring 123.8 and allowing 103.1. As lineups go they are in the 88th percentile in point differential.

 

[Futuredome]

The unit of Mitchell/Strus/Okoro/Wade/Allen is outscoring opponents by 20.2 points per 100 possessions according to cleaningtheglass.com. That's for 484 possessions. Put Garland and Mobley in for Okoro and Wade and it drops to 5.0 points.

Maybe that first lineup doesn't look good on paper but the numbers are the numbers. They're scoring 123.8 and allowing 103.1. As lineups go they are in the 88th percentile in point differential.

Then that number drops after 2 poor games against teams trying and playing with a pulse. How did the Garland/Struss/Okoro/Mobley/Allen fair against the Nuggets/76ers games in November when Mitchell was out and struggling. My guess.....pretty good. Players are missing good shots and Mobley is shying.....it's a long season.

 

[cavsfever]

View attachment 19070

These things don't match. I'm trying to wrap my mind around an UDFA being given a chance, development time, 2way deals, nonguaranteed contracts, guaranteed multi-year deals, being a top rotation player, and complaining about that team and coach. Does Dean complain this much? 99% of whats posted on his behalf are complaints about his bosses and the franchise that invested in him so much.

I know. I had a very positive impression of Wade’s personality (based on nothing but his hard work), until I read a lot of Comeback Kids posts. Now I’m like - is this how Wade himself talks to his friends privately? Does he whine endlessly and shit on the organization? I’ve got to assume he doesn’t because successful people aren’t usually negative thinkers, but I wouldn’t even consider it as a possibility if I hadn’t read the posts here.

(Of course I guess you could say I’m a hypocrite because there’s a lot of “whining endlessly and shitting on the organization” at RCF in general but we’re just fans with nothing else to do)

 

[Futuredome]

If he wants to lose his job and if the Cavs want to lose the game, yes.

We already saw this two seasons ago when DG was the only playmaker and dribble penetrator. Defenses would just deny him the ball or triple/double him to get it out of his hands and that was the end of the Cavs' offense. Putting Mitchell in his place isn't going to change that defense.

Shooters are also worthless if nobody on the offense can penetrate and break the defense down. And neither Okoro, Strus, Wade, or Allen are going to do that. If the Cavs consider that a decent strategy then they should just start planning for the off-season.

It's called living the high of January. No b/b. Facing teams coming off a game, terrible teams, bad defensive teams(looking at you Bucks). It was a perfect storm especially with a rim rocker like Mitchell. He did that with Utah.....then the playoffs came.