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After an impressive win over the Magic the Cavs take their talents, such as they are, to South Beach. Both the Cavs and Heat sport 12-9 records; the Heat are 5-3 at home while the Cavs are 6-3 on the road.
These teams played in Cleveland on Nov. 22 with the Heat destroying the Cavs 129-96. However, the Cavs had beaten the Sixers in overtime the previous night in Philadelphia and were exhausted while the Heat had the day off. Donovan Mitchell did not play and the end of the Cavs’ bench (Merrill, I. Mobley, Banes, etc) played 67 minutes. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo were out for Miami but it didn’t matter. Jarrett Allen, wiped out from jousting with Embiid the night before, had 4 points in 23 minutes and the rest of the starters were pretty much the same.
Fortunately for the Cavs, Adebayo and Herro are still out. Haywood Highsmith, who is listed as their starting power forward on their depth chart and who has started 14 of his 15 games this year, is also out. With three starters out that presents a major opportunity for the Cavs to steal a win at a venue where they are 6-31 in recent years.
Here is some oversight on the Heat from a couple of season previews:
Miami only went 44-38 during the regular season last year, and the team didn’t do much to add talent in the offseason. With that in mind, I don’t see the Heat flirting with 50 wins in 2023-24…Miami also did a nice job in scooping Josh Richardon and Thomas Bryant for cheap this summer. Richardson should help ease the pain of losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in free agency….
I’m just not seeing much upside with the Heat this season, and I think they got a little worse while others in the Eastern Conference got better. Even weaker teams in the East will be more competitive this season…What that means is that there won’t be many easy wins out there for the Heat.
Miami could also struggle a bit to start the year, as the top players on this team put a lot of wear and tear on their bodies playing big minutes in an NBA Finals run. And it’s going to take some time for Miami to get used to playing without guys like Vincent and Strus, who were massive contributors offensively last season.
The Heat will also have to find a way to manage Kyle Lowry this season. He’s only getting worse as he continues to age, and keeping him fresh will likely come at the expense of some regular season wins. The same can also be said for Kevin Love.
There’s just a lot working against the Heat heading into this season, so I’m not sure how they’ll hit the Over on their win total. - VSiN
The 2023 NBA Finals runners-up look like a watered-down version of the team that went on a stunning run through the East playoffs last spring. If a 44-win projection feels unfair, consider that last year’s Miami team also won 44 games, lost Gabe Vincent and Max Strus with no compensation and also stood pat in free agency…
Miami’s destiny is contingent on the same formula of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and a lot of shooting around them. There’s perhaps less shooting now without Strus and Vincent, but Herro, Lowry, Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love can all stroke it and Caleb Martin briefly morphed into Steph Curry during the Eastern Conference finals.
Josh Richardson, back for a second tour, is another solid marksman and a great value deal for Miami on a minimum contract…Love can play some minutes at the four and offset what is otherwise a shockingly small lineup. - John Hollinger
The operative word for Miami is “continuity”. Eric Spoelstra is in his 27th year coaching the Heat and his 16th as head coach. Adebayo has been on the Heat for 7 years, Duncan Robinson 6, Butler and Herro 5. Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin are in their 3rd years. Most of their main guys have been playing together for a long time under the same coach and system. They get the most out of their talent.
This is an older team; Lowry is 37, Kevin Love 35, Butler 34, and Josh Richardson 30. They are also “shockingly small”, as Hollinger put it. Bam is 6’9” and the other rotation players are 6’5” to 6’7” except Lowry at 6’0”. A newcomer who has been impressive is C Orlando Robinson, 6’10”, 235. The Heat have been outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor - best on the team. He’s shooting 57.5% overall and is 6-for-7 on 3’s. Two nights ago he had 15 points and 12 boards against Toronto.
These older fellas don’t like to run. They rank 26th in pace and 29th in fast break points. They play a half court offense that is pretty effective; they rank 12th in effective field goal percentage despite not getting many easy buckets in transition.
They are 5th in 3-point accuracy and 22nd in 2-point accuracy so it’s better to chase them off the 3-point line. The Heat rank 27th in shots at the rim and only 23rd in rim success - they would rather avoid contact. But they are 1st in mid-range shots; they prefer to pull up for the short jumper rather than take it to the hole. They’re good at it, ranking 8th in accuracy on mid-range shots. Butler in particular excels at that.
The Heat are unselfish, ranking 9th in assists per possession, and they excel in ball protection, ranking 6th in turnovers. They don’t crash the offensive glass much, ranking 27th in offensive rebound percentage. They work their half-court offense for a good mid-range or 3-point look and then fall back on D.
Overall the Heat are 17th in points per game; they’re 12th in eFG% but 27th in shot attempts per game, which puts them at 17th in scoring. The key is contesting those 3-point and mid-range jumpers and forcing misses.
Defensively they’re 11th in opponents’ points per game despite being 26th in effective field goal percentage. They’re among the worst at forcing missed shots which you might expect from their lack of size, especially along the front line. They are 29th in block percentage - also expected. But they're 11th in scoring because of playing a slow pace and forcing a lot of turnovers.
Like most smaller teams they try to make up for lack of height by gambling for steals. They rank 9th in steals and 5th in forced turnovers per possession, which is how they keep the scoring down. The key to scoring on the Heat is to avoid turnovers; if you can get the shot up you have a great chance. However, you need to make the first one because they rank 4th in defensive rebound percentage despite lacking height.
Offensively the Cavs should pound it inside to take advantage of their superior height. With Bam out the lack of length will be an even bigger problem.
The Heat don’t defend the 3-point shot well at all, ranking 26th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. The Cavs should take it to the rim as much as possible or post them up, kicking it out for an open 3 if the Heat collapse in the paint. Play the inside/outside game but be careful on those kickouts to the perimeter as the Heat will be lurking in the lanes. Better to just power it to the rim.
Adebayo, Herro, and Jimmy Butler form a three-headed monster with each averaging between 22.2 and 22.9 points per game. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team where the top three scorers had almost identical scoring averages. Their shooting percentages are excellent. But with Bam and Herro out they’re missing 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 8.5 assists.
Duncan Robinson is having a good season, averaging 15.0 points on 49% and 44% shooting. Lowry, Martin, Richardson, and Jaime Jaquez Jr all average between 9-12 ppg off the bench. Lowry and Robinson are both shooing 44% on 3’s so the Cavs need to stay close and contest 3’s. Kevin Love is averaging 7.9 points on 39% and 33% shooting.
This should be a much closer game than the last time with Mitchell playing and the Cavs having played just one game in the last five days. However, Evan Mobley is listed as questionable. If he can play the Cavs will have a big height advantage at the 4. In their last game the Heat started 6'7" Duncan Robinson at the 4.
The Cavs have been very good on the road and the Heat are a pedestrian 5-3 at home. Since beating the Cavs the Heat have lost 4 of 6 while the Cavs have won 8 of their last 11, including a win over the 14-6 Magic two nights ago.
The Cavs have Dean Wade back and Isaac Okoro returned earlier so they have their defensive stoppers off the bench. Max Strus will have his homecoming. Mitchell and Garland looked in top form against the Magic on Wednesday so the Cavs should be ready to take it to the Heat, who are missing three starters, including their two leading scorers and their leading rebounder. But if Mobley is out then Wade and Niang will have to step up with good performances.
These teams played in Cleveland on Nov. 22 with the Heat destroying the Cavs 129-96. However, the Cavs had beaten the Sixers in overtime the previous night in Philadelphia and were exhausted while the Heat had the day off. Donovan Mitchell did not play and the end of the Cavs’ bench (Merrill, I. Mobley, Banes, etc) played 67 minutes. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo were out for Miami but it didn’t matter. Jarrett Allen, wiped out from jousting with Embiid the night before, had 4 points in 23 minutes and the rest of the starters were pretty much the same.
Fortunately for the Cavs, Adebayo and Herro are still out. Haywood Highsmith, who is listed as their starting power forward on their depth chart and who has started 14 of his 15 games this year, is also out. With three starters out that presents a major opportunity for the Cavs to steal a win at a venue where they are 6-31 in recent years.
Here is some oversight on the Heat from a couple of season previews:
Miami only went 44-38 during the regular season last year, and the team didn’t do much to add talent in the offseason. With that in mind, I don’t see the Heat flirting with 50 wins in 2023-24…Miami also did a nice job in scooping Josh Richardon and Thomas Bryant for cheap this summer. Richardson should help ease the pain of losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus in free agency….
I’m just not seeing much upside with the Heat this season, and I think they got a little worse while others in the Eastern Conference got better. Even weaker teams in the East will be more competitive this season…What that means is that there won’t be many easy wins out there for the Heat.
Miami could also struggle a bit to start the year, as the top players on this team put a lot of wear and tear on their bodies playing big minutes in an NBA Finals run. And it’s going to take some time for Miami to get used to playing without guys like Vincent and Strus, who were massive contributors offensively last season.
The Heat will also have to find a way to manage Kyle Lowry this season. He’s only getting worse as he continues to age, and keeping him fresh will likely come at the expense of some regular season wins. The same can also be said for Kevin Love.
There’s just a lot working against the Heat heading into this season, so I’m not sure how they’ll hit the Over on their win total. - VSiN
The 2023 NBA Finals runners-up look like a watered-down version of the team that went on a stunning run through the East playoffs last spring. If a 44-win projection feels unfair, consider that last year’s Miami team also won 44 games, lost Gabe Vincent and Max Strus with no compensation and also stood pat in free agency…
Miami’s destiny is contingent on the same formula of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and a lot of shooting around them. There’s perhaps less shooting now without Strus and Vincent, but Herro, Lowry, Duncan Robinson and Kevin Love can all stroke it and Caleb Martin briefly morphed into Steph Curry during the Eastern Conference finals.
Josh Richardson, back for a second tour, is another solid marksman and a great value deal for Miami on a minimum contract…Love can play some minutes at the four and offset what is otherwise a shockingly small lineup. - John Hollinger
The operative word for Miami is “continuity”. Eric Spoelstra is in his 27th year coaching the Heat and his 16th as head coach. Adebayo has been on the Heat for 7 years, Duncan Robinson 6, Butler and Herro 5. Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin are in their 3rd years. Most of their main guys have been playing together for a long time under the same coach and system. They get the most out of their talent.
This is an older team; Lowry is 37, Kevin Love 35, Butler 34, and Josh Richardson 30. They are also “shockingly small”, as Hollinger put it. Bam is 6’9” and the other rotation players are 6’5” to 6’7” except Lowry at 6’0”. A newcomer who has been impressive is C Orlando Robinson, 6’10”, 235. The Heat have been outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per 100 possessions when he’s been on the floor - best on the team. He’s shooting 57.5% overall and is 6-for-7 on 3’s. Two nights ago he had 15 points and 12 boards against Toronto.
These older fellas don’t like to run. They rank 26th in pace and 29th in fast break points. They play a half court offense that is pretty effective; they rank 12th in effective field goal percentage despite not getting many easy buckets in transition.
They are 5th in 3-point accuracy and 22nd in 2-point accuracy so it’s better to chase them off the 3-point line. The Heat rank 27th in shots at the rim and only 23rd in rim success - they would rather avoid contact. But they are 1st in mid-range shots; they prefer to pull up for the short jumper rather than take it to the hole. They’re good at it, ranking 8th in accuracy on mid-range shots. Butler in particular excels at that.
The Heat are unselfish, ranking 9th in assists per possession, and they excel in ball protection, ranking 6th in turnovers. They don’t crash the offensive glass much, ranking 27th in offensive rebound percentage. They work their half-court offense for a good mid-range or 3-point look and then fall back on D.
Overall the Heat are 17th in points per game; they’re 12th in eFG% but 27th in shot attempts per game, which puts them at 17th in scoring. The key is contesting those 3-point and mid-range jumpers and forcing misses.
Defensively they’re 11th in opponents’ points per game despite being 26th in effective field goal percentage. They’re among the worst at forcing missed shots which you might expect from their lack of size, especially along the front line. They are 29th in block percentage - also expected. But they're 11th in scoring because of playing a slow pace and forcing a lot of turnovers.
Like most smaller teams they try to make up for lack of height by gambling for steals. They rank 9th in steals and 5th in forced turnovers per possession, which is how they keep the scoring down. The key to scoring on the Heat is to avoid turnovers; if you can get the shot up you have a great chance. However, you need to make the first one because they rank 4th in defensive rebound percentage despite lacking height.
Offensively the Cavs should pound it inside to take advantage of their superior height. With Bam out the lack of length will be an even bigger problem.
The Heat don’t defend the 3-point shot well at all, ranking 26th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. The Cavs should take it to the rim as much as possible or post them up, kicking it out for an open 3 if the Heat collapse in the paint. Play the inside/outside game but be careful on those kickouts to the perimeter as the Heat will be lurking in the lanes. Better to just power it to the rim.
Adebayo, Herro, and Jimmy Butler form a three-headed monster with each averaging between 22.2 and 22.9 points per game. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team where the top three scorers had almost identical scoring averages. Their shooting percentages are excellent. But with Bam and Herro out they’re missing 45 points, 15 rebounds, and 8.5 assists.
Duncan Robinson is having a good season, averaging 15.0 points on 49% and 44% shooting. Lowry, Martin, Richardson, and Jaime Jaquez Jr all average between 9-12 ppg off the bench. Lowry and Robinson are both shooing 44% on 3’s so the Cavs need to stay close and contest 3’s. Kevin Love is averaging 7.9 points on 39% and 33% shooting.
This should be a much closer game than the last time with Mitchell playing and the Cavs having played just one game in the last five days. However, Evan Mobley is listed as questionable. If he can play the Cavs will have a big height advantage at the 4. In their last game the Heat started 6'7" Duncan Robinson at the 4.
The Cavs have been very good on the road and the Heat are a pedestrian 5-3 at home. Since beating the Cavs the Heat have lost 4 of 6 while the Cavs have won 8 of their last 11, including a win over the 14-6 Magic two nights ago.
The Cavs have Dean Wade back and Isaac Okoro returned earlier so they have their defensive stoppers off the bench. Max Strus will have his homecoming. Mitchell and Garland looked in top form against the Magic on Wednesday so the Cavs should be ready to take it to the Heat, who are missing three starters, including their two leading scorers and their leading rebounder. But if Mobley is out then Wade and Niang will have to step up with good performances.
