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The Cavaliers' home stand continues with their first meeting of the season with the Utah Jazz, who have failed to thrive since the Donovan Mitchell trade. The Jazz are 10-17 overall but just 2-12 on the road. For the second straight game the Cavs face a team with one of the worst road records in the NBA. The only teams the Jazz have defeated on the road are Portland and Memphis, both with 6-19 records.
Former Cavalier Jordan Clarkson will miss this game. Clarkson is second on the Jazz in scoring and assists, but he’s only shooting 40% overall and 29.5% on 3’s. The Jazz are being outscored by nearly 5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, so I’m not sure how much his absence will hurt them.
Clarkson is now 31 years old. His usage rate is in the 96th percentile among wings but his points per shot attempt is in the 10th percentile. Clearly he’s shooting way too much. Clarkson being out could result in more minutes for the backup point guard, Collin Sexton, who I’m sure would love to stick it to his former team and outplay Donovan Mitchell.
Sexton is in the 93rd percentile in usage and in the 62nd percentile in points per shot attempt. His assist per usage rate is at a career high, in the 79th percentile, which is probably a surprise to Cavalier fans. The Jazz are 3.7 points better with Collin on the floor, so he seems to have developed into a useful player in his 6th season. He’s still only 24 years old.
Another former Cav, Lauri Markkanen, leads in scoring at 23.2 ppg and rebounding at 8.5 per game. He’s shooting 49% overall and 38% on 3’s. I’m sure both Sexton and Markkanen would like to show the Cavs they made a mistake trading them to Utah.
As a team the Jazz are averaging just 106.2 points per game on the road, which is second worst behind only San Antonio. With Clarkson out they may average less. At home they average 118.6 so the difference is huge. Someone should check the rims in SLC to make sure they're regulation.
They play at a very fast pace, ranking 6th in shot attempts per game, 9th in fast break points, and 7th in 3-point rate. From their stats it’s clear they love to run the floor and get shots up quick, either layups or 3’s in transition.
However, they are not good shooters, ranking 25th in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage. They are last in the NBA in turnover percentage, averaging 17 turnovers per game. From their stats I’d say they play fast and a little out of control. Lots of turnovers and missed shots.
However, they lead the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 30.2%. They crash the offensive glass relentlessly, knowing they miss a lot of shots. The downside is that when they don’t get the rebound they are vulnerable to fast breaks; they are last in the NBA in fast break points allowed per game. It’s a high risk/high reward strategy.
Without Mobley the Cavs are more vulnerable to offensive rebounding; they allowed 15 to the Rockets in their last game. This is where the Jazz could win this game - on the offensive glass. The key for the Cavs defensively is to limit offensive rebounds, or at least punish the Jazz with fast break points when they fail to get the offensive board. Protect the defensive glass and force turnovers against the league’s most turnover prone team will win this one for Cleveland.
Defensively the Jazz are 24th in opponents’ points per game and defensive efficiency, but on the road they rank 28th in scoring defense at a whopping 123 points per game. They block shots well (9th) but don’t get a lot of steals (26th).
PF John Collins, the former Atlanta Hawk, is having a good year averaging 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds on 48% overall and 40% on 3’s. With Mobley out he becomes Dean Wade’s responsibility.
C Walker Kessler, in his second season, is having a bit of a drop-off. As a rookie he shot 72% from the field, although he only took 5.6 shots per game. This year he’s up to 6.8 shot attempts but his percentage is 57.7. The 7-footer averages 2.8 blocks per game. He had a foot injury, however, that may have affected his numbers.
SG Talen Horton-Tucker, the former Laker, averages 11.1 points per game on an unimpressive 41% shooting, but he has easily the highest on/off number at +15.7 points per 100 possessions. He must be a hell of a defender. I think he is an Isaac Okoro type. Kelly Olynyk and Markkanen are next in on/off at +9.1 and +8.1.
Olynyk, now 32, is having an excellent season, ranking in the 85th percentile among bigs in points per shot attempt and the 99th percentile in assists per usage rate. He’s hitting over 42% of his 3’s. I wish we could trade for him (he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year) but I don’t know what we have that Utah would want. They already have Markkanen, Sexton, Agbagi, and all our first round draft picks for the rest of the decade (well, most of them).
The Jazz bench will be thin due to rookie PG Keyonte George (26 minutes per game) and backup center Omar Yurtseven (16 minutes) being out, plus not having Clarkson. They're down two of their top four players in minutes per game in George and Clarkson. George leads the Jazz in assists at 5.0 per game. Between Clarkson, George, and Yurtseven they're missing 32 points per game.
Former Cavalier Jordan Clarkson will miss this game. Clarkson is second on the Jazz in scoring and assists, but he’s only shooting 40% overall and 29.5% on 3’s. The Jazz are being outscored by nearly 5 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor, so I’m not sure how much his absence will hurt them.
Clarkson is now 31 years old. His usage rate is in the 96th percentile among wings but his points per shot attempt is in the 10th percentile. Clearly he’s shooting way too much. Clarkson being out could result in more minutes for the backup point guard, Collin Sexton, who I’m sure would love to stick it to his former team and outplay Donovan Mitchell.
Sexton is in the 93rd percentile in usage and in the 62nd percentile in points per shot attempt. His assist per usage rate is at a career high, in the 79th percentile, which is probably a surprise to Cavalier fans. The Jazz are 3.7 points better with Collin on the floor, so he seems to have developed into a useful player in his 6th season. He’s still only 24 years old.
Another former Cav, Lauri Markkanen, leads in scoring at 23.2 ppg and rebounding at 8.5 per game. He’s shooting 49% overall and 38% on 3’s. I’m sure both Sexton and Markkanen would like to show the Cavs they made a mistake trading them to Utah.
As a team the Jazz are averaging just 106.2 points per game on the road, which is second worst behind only San Antonio. With Clarkson out they may average less. At home they average 118.6 so the difference is huge. Someone should check the rims in SLC to make sure they're regulation.
They play at a very fast pace, ranking 6th in shot attempts per game, 9th in fast break points, and 7th in 3-point rate. From their stats it’s clear they love to run the floor and get shots up quick, either layups or 3’s in transition.
However, they are not good shooters, ranking 25th in effective field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point percentage. They are last in the NBA in turnover percentage, averaging 17 turnovers per game. From their stats I’d say they play fast and a little out of control. Lots of turnovers and missed shots.
However, they lead the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 30.2%. They crash the offensive glass relentlessly, knowing they miss a lot of shots. The downside is that when they don’t get the rebound they are vulnerable to fast breaks; they are last in the NBA in fast break points allowed per game. It’s a high risk/high reward strategy.
Without Mobley the Cavs are more vulnerable to offensive rebounding; they allowed 15 to the Rockets in their last game. This is where the Jazz could win this game - on the offensive glass. The key for the Cavs defensively is to limit offensive rebounds, or at least punish the Jazz with fast break points when they fail to get the offensive board. Protect the defensive glass and force turnovers against the league’s most turnover prone team will win this one for Cleveland.
Defensively the Jazz are 24th in opponents’ points per game and defensive efficiency, but on the road they rank 28th in scoring defense at a whopping 123 points per game. They block shots well (9th) but don’t get a lot of steals (26th).
PF John Collins, the former Atlanta Hawk, is having a good year averaging 14.3 points and 8.3 rebounds on 48% overall and 40% on 3’s. With Mobley out he becomes Dean Wade’s responsibility.
C Walker Kessler, in his second season, is having a bit of a drop-off. As a rookie he shot 72% from the field, although he only took 5.6 shots per game. This year he’s up to 6.8 shot attempts but his percentage is 57.7. The 7-footer averages 2.8 blocks per game. He had a foot injury, however, that may have affected his numbers.
SG Talen Horton-Tucker, the former Laker, averages 11.1 points per game on an unimpressive 41% shooting, but he has easily the highest on/off number at +15.7 points per 100 possessions. He must be a hell of a defender. I think he is an Isaac Okoro type. Kelly Olynyk and Markkanen are next in on/off at +9.1 and +8.1.
Olynyk, now 32, is having an excellent season, ranking in the 85th percentile among bigs in points per shot attempt and the 99th percentile in assists per usage rate. He’s hitting over 42% of his 3’s. I wish we could trade for him (he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year) but I don’t know what we have that Utah would want. They already have Markkanen, Sexton, Agbagi, and all our first round draft picks for the rest of the decade (well, most of them).
The Jazz bench will be thin due to rookie PG Keyonte George (26 minutes per game) and backup center Omar Yurtseven (16 minutes) being out, plus not having Clarkson. They're down two of their top four players in minutes per game in George and Clarkson. George leads the Jazz in assists at 5.0 per game. Between Clarkson, George, and Yurtseven they're missing 32 points per game.
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