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2023-24 Season | Game #29 | Pelicans @ Cavs | Dec. 21, 2023 | 7:30 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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The Cavs stay home for the second night of a back-to-back against the New Orleans Pelicans. Both teams are 16-12. The Cavs are 9-6 at home while the Pelis are 7-7 on the road. The Pelicans were off yesterday.

The Pelicans have won 4 of 5, but three of those wins were against Charlotte, Washington, and San Antonio. But they beat the team with the NBA’s best record, Minnesota, at home five games back. In their last game they lost to the Grizzlies at home in Ja Morant’s first game back after a 25-game suspension for waving a gun around. Not exactly consistent with the "NBA Cares" image the league is trying to market.

These teams have yet to play this season.

The Pelicans have some big boys on their roster. Jonas Valenciunas is 6’11”, Brandon Ingram and Trey Murphy are 6’8”, Herbert Jones is 6’7”, and Zion Williamson, finally healthy, is 6’6”, 284 pounds. I won’t be surprised if they try to muscle the Cavs around.

Forward Matt Ryan, who is averaging 9.3 points on 47% on 3’s is out. So is former Cav Larry Nance Jr, although he doesn’t play much. As of last night Valenciunas, Jones, and Zion were all listed as questionable due to illness. That’s their entire starting front line wiped out if these guys can’t go. However, none of them are on the CBS injury report this morning so apparently they will play. The question is whether their minutes could be limited and whether their stamina will be affected.

Donovan Mitchell missed last night’s game to illness so his availability is in question.

The Pelicans are ranked 13th in scoring and 16th in scoring defense. They rank 26th in 3-point rate and 27th in percentage of points scored on 3’s, so they are more of an attacking the rim team. They rank 9th in points in the paint so they use their big fellas to take it inside. The draw a lot of fouls, ranking 5th in free throw attempts per game. This is going to be a very physical game if Zion, Vala, and Jones can play. Vala in particular likes to try and bully opposing players. I don't know if the Cavs have the muscle to keep Vala and Zion from taking it to the rim for buckets and fouls. Vala is the kind of physical center that Allen has trouble with and nobody can stop Zion from getting to where he wants to go.

Surprisingly they are only average in offensive rebound percentage. It’s a matter of staying in front of them and contesting shots without fouling.

Defensively the Pelicans defend the 3-point shot very well, ranking 4th in opponents’ 3-point percentage. As a result, teams don’t shoot from deep against them; their opponents rank 29th in 3-point rate. The Pelicans are the opposite on 2-point shots; they rank 27th. So it would behoove the Cavs to take it inside. The Pelicans rank 25th in blocks, but they do get a lot of steals. They rank 9th in forced turnovers, so ball protection will be important.

After watching the Cavs knock down 23 three-pointers last night I'm sure the Pelis will stress defending the 3 in the game plan. They won't leave Merrill open for uncontested looks. They have height at every position so they can switch all they want on the perimeter to be in position to contest 3's. The Cavs are going to have to beat them off the dribble and take it to the paint.

Brandon Ingram, their 6’8” shooting guard, is averaging 23.5 ppg on 50% shooting and 33% on 3’s. Zion is averaging 22 points and 5.8 rebounds in 30 minutes. He shoots 57.8%. CJ McCollum averages 20.4 ppg on 46% and 44% from deep. Having three players scoring between 20-24 ppg puts a lot of pressure on opposing defenses.

Vala and Trey Murphy, their sixth man, are averaging 14.9 points each, so the Pelis really have balanced scoring; five players between 15-24 points. Herbert Jones chips in 11.2 points on 48%.

These teams seem pretty evenly matched when everybody is healthy but the Cavs are already missing Garland and Mobley and could be missing Mitchell. The Pelicans are down one 3-point sniper off the bench and their entire starting front line is coming off an illness. The Cavs have home court advantage but the Pelicans rested yesterday while the Cavs played. This one might come down to whether Mitchell, Zion, Vala, and Jones are fully recovered and can play or whether they are limited or even out
 
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Probably a scheduled loss
Nope. Zion, Jonas V, and Herb Jones are all questionable. Let's see where that goes before throwing in the towel.

Regardless, I think this is a winnable back-to-back. We could get our best player back who is rested (albeit coming off an illness). Plus, none of our guys played more than 32 mins last night.
 
At least we can scout some potential trade prospects from the other side. Particularly interested in Murphy and Ingram length and shooting. I feel like Ingram is kinda underappreciated in the NBA.
 
At least we can scout some potential trade prospects from the other side. Particularly interested in Murphy and Ingram length and shooting. I feel like Ingram is kinda underappreciated in the NBA.
I go the other way. Ingram is overrated. He is not that great.
 
To me, Ingram is an enigma. I've run hot and cold with him, and usually have him on my fantasy team, so I see his counting stats. To me, they've always been semi-impressive, but not much translates to wins. Is it the dudes around him, or is he the culprit?

I really wanted him a few years ago. Its crazy though, seems like he's been in the league forever, and he just turned 26 in September. Maybe a more mature BI is what the doctor ordered?
 
As of this morning cleveland.com has the three Pelicans players questionable with illness, but CBSSports does not list them at all. I don't know if CBS just lists injuries and not illnesses, however. But if Zion, Valanciunas, and Jones are out the Pelis will be missing about 40 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists.

According to the ESPN depth chart, the backup center, veteran journeyman Cody Zeller, is also day-to-day, so they could be down to their third center. Their backup power forward, Naji Marshall, averages 8.3 points but he is shooting 44% on 3's (24-for-55). Their backup small forward, Dyson Daniels, is shooting 40% overall and 25% on 3's. He was the #8 overall pick in 2022.

So if their starters on the front line can't go the Pelicans will be in a world of hurt.
 
Looking at the Pelican's on/off stats, Trey Murphy, their 6'8" sixth man, leads the team by a huge margin at +19.8. The next highest is Naji Marshall, another reserve, at +8.5. Ingram is +2.3. Zion is -2.4.

Murphy was injured and has been back for only eight games, but he's shooting 49% overall and 40% on 3's. The players that scare me most are 6'8" and taller players who can knock down 3's. Murphy, in his third season, has been in the 95th and 96th percentile at his position in points per shot attempt the last two years. Ingram has been in the 96th percentile and above for five years in a row. This year he's in the 99th percentile, but he's only hitting 33% on 3's. The key is to stay in front of him and make him shoot from the perimeter.
 
I think we will need DM to play to get this one. We’ve been winning shorthanded on good to excellent 3 point shooting. We’ve also rebounded well and won the turnover battle. Those things tend to suffer with tired legs - like the second of a back to back when a lot of guys have been logging more minutes than they are used to. A fresh DM could offset that
 
I think we will need DM to play to get this one. We’ve been winning shorthanded on good to excellent 3 point shooting. We’ve also rebounded well and won the turnover battle. Those things tend to suffer with tired legs - like the second of a back to back when a lot of guys have been logging more minutes than they are used to. A fresh DM could offset that

#letemknow
 
I just wanna see CPJ dish to Merill for a splaaaaash.

Sam's stroke is almost as beautiful as Korver's.
 

I am so excited for tonight's game lol lol lol (I know there will be a huge let down game coming soon) but til then I am loving this...
 
On Ingram, he is maybe a 3rd best guy, could be 2nd best guy depending on the 1. He is a pretty decent all around scorer, but relies a little too much on those long midrange 2s that you really only want KD, Dirk, Steph and a handful of others taking. He isn't a bad passer but not good enough to be a true primary. He is worse on D than he should be given his length and height. All in all, he is still a solid guy, maybe top 35-50 range? I am not sure I would take him over Lauri for example.
 
I think tonight is the night the Cavs luck finally runs out, but I'd love to be pleasantly surprised
 
In the second half Sexton chased Merrill around and mostly prevented him from taking 3's. They also switched people like Markkanen onto him to prevent 3's. He still made a couple in the second half, but he wasn't getting open looks like in the first.

The Pelicans excel in preventing the 3. Ingram is 6'8", Williamson 6'6", Jones 6'7", and Vala 6'11". McCollum is 6'3". They have height everywhere and they saw what Merrill did last night and noted the Cavs took 51 three-point shots. They will be prepared to defend the 3 tonight and they're very good at it.

However, they rank 27th in opponents' 2-point percentage, so the key is to drive on them. They're 25th in block percentage. Valanciunas is not very quick and he's not a leaper. I don't expect Merrill to light it up tonight - the Pelicans will be ready. But pump fakes and blow-bys should be effective.
 

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