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Winners of 9 of their last 12 games and on a roll after a 20-point comeback win on the road against Dallas, the Cavs return home to take on the Milwaukee Bucks for the first time this season. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Cavs and Bucks will play four times in the next month and not see each other again in the regular season. So we’ll probably play them all four times without Evan Mobley and at least twice without Darius Garland. The game is on NBA TV.
The Bucks are 23-8 overall and 7-6 on the road. They have played the 2nd easiest schedule, but they are 7-2 against the top six teams in the East and 10-4 against teams .500 and over. Their only injured player is Jae Crowder who comes off the bench. Giannis is listed as probable.
The Bucks are very, very good, but I think they’re a bit vulnerable in the long run. They are an older team that relies on a few great players. Damian Lillard, their starting point guard, is 33. Starting center Brook Lopez is 35. Starting small forward Khris Middleton is 32. So far all these guys have been healthy and started at least 26 of their 31 games, but it’s a long season.
Middleton averaged 20 points a game for three years in a row until last season when he only played 33 games and averaged 15 points. This year he’s averaging 14 points and his minutes have dropped from 32 per game to 24. They're obviously limiting his minutes to try and keep him on the floor.
Giannis leads the team in scoring and rebounding, of course, at 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists (rounded off). He’s shooting an incredible 61% overall but just 22% on 3’s.
Lillard averages 26 points and 7 assists. Lopez averages 13 points on 51% shooting and Malik Beasley averages 12 points on 48% overall and 46% from deep. Bobby Portis is their sixth man at 13 points and 7 rebounds on 51% shooting.
The Bucks are the NBA’s second highest scoring team at 125.2 points per game, but I’m sure some of that is due to playing the second easiest schedule. They scored 146 on Detroit, 142 on Washington, and 132 on San Antonio, for example. They’ve been held under 100 points only one time and that was with Lillard out.
Surprisingly they only rank 17th in points in the paint, 22nd in fast break points, and 22nd in offensive rebound percentage. They are 1st in effective field goal percentage, 1st in 2-point percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage. They take their time, set up their half-court offense, and make a higher percentage of shots than anybody. They shoot a lot of 3’s, ranking 6th in 3-point rate, and they make 38.3%. They have great offensive weapons surrounded by excellent 3-point shooters. Giannis, Dame, and Middleton combine to average 71 points per game.
They don’t cough up the ball (8th lowest turnover rate) and they draw a lot of fouls (4th most free throw attempts). They protect the ball, make a high percentage of their shots, and get to the foul line a lot.
After their top six players nobody on their bench averages more than 6.5 points per game. Their top six players average 108 of their 125 points. They really depend on a few players, three of them over 30, to provide almost all of the scoring, which is why I think they are vulnerable over a long season.
As a team the Bucks rank 5th in 3-point percentage from the corner (44.4%) but only 19th on non-corner 3’s (35.8%), so the Cavs need to stay wide and prevent open looks from the corner. If Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis plant themselves in the corner (41% and 42%) the Cavs need to keep somebody on them and not wander into the paint. Middleton is shooting 50% and Beasley 56% from the corner, so the Cavs cannot drift away leaving these guys with open looks. The Cavs should expect passes to the corner and lurk in the passing lanes because that's where the Bucks like to shoot the ball.
Giannis shoots 77% at the rim but just 37% on midrange shots and 22% on 3’s so the key is to stay in front of him and make him shoot over you. Easy to say, almost impossible to do without doubling him.
In their last game the Cavs doubled Doncic and it worked because the other Mavericks were brutal at shooting 3’s. I don’t think that will work against the Bucks; they have a lot of guys hitting over 40% from deep.
Defensively the Bucks rank 23rd in points allowed per game. They’re 24th in points allowed in the paint - Lopez averages almost 3 of their 5.5 blocks per game. They don't try to force turnovers; they’re second worst in the NBA in this category. But they’re good at contesting 3’s as they rank 6th best in opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re average at forcing missed shots on 2’s, so that seems the way to go for the Cavs - attack the rim.
The Bucks rank 20th at defensive rebound percentage so there will be some putback opportunities. The Cavs have had a lot of success recently on second chance points since they started shooting more 3’s (and playing Craig Porter Jr and Tristan Thompson more).
Without Mobley it’s tough to see the Cavs holding down the Bucks’ scoring. However, the Mavericks average 119 points and the Cavs just limited them to 110 in Dallas, so maybe they can hold Milwaukee to under 120. In that case they could steal a win because the Bucks are allowing 119 points per game. The Cavs need to make Dame run around and play defense on those 33-year-old legs and not let him rest. Make him chase Porter or Mitchell or LeVert all over the floor when the Cavs have the ball.
The Cavs will be coming in waves of fresh bodies while the Bucks will have to play their top six heavy minutes if the score is close. However, the Bucks have some guys on their bench who are excellent 3-point shooters; Payne (41%), Beauchamp (46%), Green (43%), and Jackson (42%). Starting guard Malik Beasley shoots 46% from deep. The Cavs can’t relax when the Bucks starters take a rest.
Donovan Mitchell and Sam Merrill are listed as questionable by ESPN but are not on the CBS injury report, so I'm unsure at to their status. Mitchell accompanied the team to Dallas and was celebrating on the floor after the win, so I assume he’ll be ready to go, although maybe not for his usual 30+ minutes.
I’d like to see the Cavs play at a fast pace against the Bucks and make these 30-somethings run a lot. Keep bringing in fresh bodies. Allen can beat Lopez down the floor for transition buckets after defensive rebounds. Don’t let the Bucks play at their pace. This game will be a great test as to how good the Cavs really are without Garland and Mobley.
The Bucks are 23-8 overall and 7-6 on the road. They have played the 2nd easiest schedule, but they are 7-2 against the top six teams in the East and 10-4 against teams .500 and over. Their only injured player is Jae Crowder who comes off the bench. Giannis is listed as probable.
The Bucks are very, very good, but I think they’re a bit vulnerable in the long run. They are an older team that relies on a few great players. Damian Lillard, their starting point guard, is 33. Starting center Brook Lopez is 35. Starting small forward Khris Middleton is 32. So far all these guys have been healthy and started at least 26 of their 31 games, but it’s a long season.
Middleton averaged 20 points a game for three years in a row until last season when he only played 33 games and averaged 15 points. This year he’s averaging 14 points and his minutes have dropped from 32 per game to 24. They're obviously limiting his minutes to try and keep him on the floor.
Giannis leads the team in scoring and rebounding, of course, at 31 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists (rounded off). He’s shooting an incredible 61% overall but just 22% on 3’s.
Lillard averages 26 points and 7 assists. Lopez averages 13 points on 51% shooting and Malik Beasley averages 12 points on 48% overall and 46% from deep. Bobby Portis is their sixth man at 13 points and 7 rebounds on 51% shooting.
The Bucks are the NBA’s second highest scoring team at 125.2 points per game, but I’m sure some of that is due to playing the second easiest schedule. They scored 146 on Detroit, 142 on Washington, and 132 on San Antonio, for example. They’ve been held under 100 points only one time and that was with Lillard out.
Surprisingly they only rank 17th in points in the paint, 22nd in fast break points, and 22nd in offensive rebound percentage. They are 1st in effective field goal percentage, 1st in 2-point percentage, and 3rd in 3-point percentage. They take their time, set up their half-court offense, and make a higher percentage of shots than anybody. They shoot a lot of 3’s, ranking 6th in 3-point rate, and they make 38.3%. They have great offensive weapons surrounded by excellent 3-point shooters. Giannis, Dame, and Middleton combine to average 71 points per game.
They don’t cough up the ball (8th lowest turnover rate) and they draw a lot of fouls (4th most free throw attempts). They protect the ball, make a high percentage of their shots, and get to the foul line a lot.
After their top six players nobody on their bench averages more than 6.5 points per game. Their top six players average 108 of their 125 points. They really depend on a few players, three of them over 30, to provide almost all of the scoring, which is why I think they are vulnerable over a long season.
As a team the Bucks rank 5th in 3-point percentage from the corner (44.4%) but only 19th on non-corner 3’s (35.8%), so the Cavs need to stay wide and prevent open looks from the corner. If Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis plant themselves in the corner (41% and 42%) the Cavs need to keep somebody on them and not wander into the paint. Middleton is shooting 50% and Beasley 56% from the corner, so the Cavs cannot drift away leaving these guys with open looks. The Cavs should expect passes to the corner and lurk in the passing lanes because that's where the Bucks like to shoot the ball.
Giannis shoots 77% at the rim but just 37% on midrange shots and 22% on 3’s so the key is to stay in front of him and make him shoot over you. Easy to say, almost impossible to do without doubling him.
In their last game the Cavs doubled Doncic and it worked because the other Mavericks were brutal at shooting 3’s. I don’t think that will work against the Bucks; they have a lot of guys hitting over 40% from deep.
Defensively the Bucks rank 23rd in points allowed per game. They’re 24th in points allowed in the paint - Lopez averages almost 3 of their 5.5 blocks per game. They don't try to force turnovers; they’re second worst in the NBA in this category. But they’re good at contesting 3’s as they rank 6th best in opponents’ 3-point percentage. They’re average at forcing missed shots on 2’s, so that seems the way to go for the Cavs - attack the rim.
The Bucks rank 20th at defensive rebound percentage so there will be some putback opportunities. The Cavs have had a lot of success recently on second chance points since they started shooting more 3’s (and playing Craig Porter Jr and Tristan Thompson more).
Without Mobley it’s tough to see the Cavs holding down the Bucks’ scoring. However, the Mavericks average 119 points and the Cavs just limited them to 110 in Dallas, so maybe they can hold Milwaukee to under 120. In that case they could steal a win because the Bucks are allowing 119 points per game. The Cavs need to make Dame run around and play defense on those 33-year-old legs and not let him rest. Make him chase Porter or Mitchell or LeVert all over the floor when the Cavs have the ball.
The Cavs will be coming in waves of fresh bodies while the Bucks will have to play their top six heavy minutes if the score is close. However, the Bucks have some guys on their bench who are excellent 3-point shooters; Payne (41%), Beauchamp (46%), Green (43%), and Jackson (42%). Starting guard Malik Beasley shoots 46% from deep. The Cavs can’t relax when the Bucks starters take a rest.
Donovan Mitchell and Sam Merrill are listed as questionable by ESPN but are not on the CBS injury report, so I'm unsure at to their status. Mitchell accompanied the team to Dallas and was celebrating on the floor after the win, so I assume he’ll be ready to go, although maybe not for his usual 30+ minutes.
I’d like to see the Cavs play at a fast pace against the Bucks and make these 30-somethings run a lot. Keep bringing in fresh bodies. Allen can beat Lopez down the floor for transition buckets after defensive rebounds. Don’t let the Bucks play at their pace. This game will be a great test as to how good the Cavs really are without Garland and Mobley.
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