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2023 Season | Game #49 | Cavs @ Wizards | Feb. 7, 2023 | 7:00 p.m.

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Wham with the Right Hand

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After an impressive win at home against the Kings the Cavaliers hit the road to face the 9-40 Washington Wizards, who are 3-21 at home. Eight of the Wizards’ nine wins this season have come against teams with losing records; the only exception was a fluke win over Indiana two months ago.

In two previous meetings the Cavs won 140-101 and 114-90. Since the last game against Clevland the Wizards are 2-12.

The Wizards are about average at scoring, ranking 18th in points per game. Surprisingly they rank 2nd in points in the paint and 3rd in fast break points. They rank 6th in field goal attempts per game and lead the NBA in pace. Nobody plays faster.

The Wizards are 20th in 3-point rate and 27th in 3-point percentage. They don’t get to the line much (27th in free throws per possession) and they’re last in offensive rebounding percentage. They rush the ball up the floor in hopes of getting a layup or uncontested 3-point attempt before the defense can set up. The key to beating these guys is good transition defense.

Defensively they are last in scoring defense, 29th in points in the paint allowed (got that Jarrett and Evan?), 28th in effective field goal percentage, 27th in opponents’ 2-point percentage, and last in defensive rebound percentage. In the unlikely even that you miss your first shot you have a great chance of getting a second. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the Association, allowing 124.0 points per game.

With the Cavs having two 6'11" bigs who can score in the paint and guards and wings who can get to the rim off the dribble I expect the Cavs to try and take full advantage of the Wizards' defense allowing the second most points in the paint in the NBA. With starting PF Marvin Bagley III out it should be that much easier.

PG Tyus Jones is averaging 12.2 ppg on 49% overall and 39% on 3’s. I’ve seen his name a lot in the trade rumors.

Several teams are reportedly eyeing Washington Wizards point guard Tyus Jones ahead of the Feb. 8 trade deadline.

The Orlando Magic, San Antonio Spurs, Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Lakers, and Minnesota Timberwolves have all shown interest in the 27-year-old, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype…Despite the Wizards' abysmal 9-40 record this season, Jones has been an effective lead guard who has shown to be a proficient three-level scorer despite not taking a high volume of shot attempts. - Bleacher Report


Jones is in the 83rd percentile of point guards in assist to usage ratio and in the 97th percentile in turnover percentage. I can see why a number of teams want him.

Kyle Kuzma is their leading scorer at 21.8 ppg, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.3 assists. However, he is only in the 16th percentile among bigs in points per shot attempt. Jordan Poole averages 16.2 points on an inefficient 41% overall and 30% on 3’s. Deni Avdija averages 12.7 points on 51% and 39%. He ranks very high in points per shot attempt and assist percentage, but he’s near the bottom at his position in turnover percentage. Corey Kispert provides some scoring punch off the bench, ranking in the 90th percentile in points per shot attempt among forwards and kicking in 11.6 ppg.

C Daniel Gafford, 6’11”, is in the 92nd percentile in block percentage, the 81st percentile in steal percentage, and the 77th percentile in offensive rebound percentage. He doesn’t shoot much but makes 69.5% of his shots. He plays great defense and crashes the offensive glass. He has the best on/off number on the team at +6.1. He and Allen should be an interesting matchup. Avdija is next among the starters at +3.9 and the rest are in the negative.

PF Marvin Bagley III, who is averaging 15.5 points and 8.4 rebounds in 24 minutes a game since being acquired from Detroit on Jan. 2, is out with a back injury.

With a day off and on a serious roll, I can’t see any way the Cavs become the second team with a winning record that loses to Washington this year. With another road game tomorrow against Brooklyn it would be helpful if the Cavs can put the Wizards away early and limit the minutes the starters have to play.
 
I assume both Garland and Mobley are both restricted from back to backs at this point? If so, I hope we see Garland tonight and save Mobley for the Nets.
 
This is one where I hope we see noone with 30+ minutes played. Hopefully no one with more than 26.

Washington is a very bad team that lacks the grit that occasional gets the Cavs off their game when they are not focused in.

This screams to me big game from Merrill and/or Niang, and good game from both the bigs.

Hoping for a blowout that keeps our guys fresh for a harder opponent tomorrow in Brooklyn.
 
Okay, this is another one of those 90% chance of victory games. They make me nervous because I'm afraid we'll play down to the opposition.

But we beat them by 24 and 39. Let's say we get a 25 point victory. 125-100
 
I assume both Garland and Mobley are both restricted from back to backs at this point? If so, I hope we see Garland tonight and save Mobley for the Nets.
Maybe even sit both of them tonight. We are the Wiz's worst nightmare on defense, even without Mobley. To score enough to keep up with us, both Kuzma and Poole will need big nights. Wade and Okoro shut them down last time. Max can cover Deni, Allen will own Gafford, and DM will have no problems with Jones. With Bagley out, Jones can handle their bigs off the bench. Unless we are just unfocused, or cant throw it in the ocean on offense, I don't see how they can score enough to beat us. Tomorrow is the tougher game, even if it wasn't the second night, if we could come in with fresh legs for both DG & Mobley, I'd feel al lot better about taking both of these games.
 
The Wizards are averaging 114.7 ppg for the season but in two games against the Cavs they're averaging 95.5 ppg on 41.6% overall and 32.3% on 3's. The Cavs seem to match up very well defensively, holding them to a whopping 19.2 points under their scoring average.

The league average for scoring is 115.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing 109.7 ppg, so on average the Cavs are holding teams to about 6 points under their average. Obviously they defend the Wizards much better than the average team. I'll bet there are no other teams that the Cavs have held 19 or more points under their average, but I haven't checked.
 
The Wizards are averaging 114.7 ppg for the season but in two games against the Cavs they're averaging 95.5 ppg on 41.6% overall and 32.3% on 3's. The Cavs seem to match up very well defensively, holding them to a whopping 19.2 points under their scoring average.

The league average for scoring is 115.6 ppg and the Cavs are allowing 109.7 ppg, so on average the Cavs are holding teams to about 6 points under their average. Obviously they defend the Wizards much better than the average team. I'll bet there are no other teams that the Cavs have held 19 or more points under their average, but I haven't checked.
Cursory glance:

Milwaukee - Season AVG: 123.3ppg. 100 points, 95 points vs the Cavs

Knicks - Season AVG: 115.2ppg. 89 points vs the Cavs
 
I know how teams felt in 1970, when the Cavs won 15 games. Will the Wizards get 15?
 
I don't follow too many celebrities, but I do follow Serena Winters:

 
Although he doesn’t have a three point shot, Danial Gafford is on my list of ideal backup/third big for the Cavs
 

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