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Fresh off two consecutive road series wins against Toronto and Minnesota the Guardians return home to take on the Tampa Bay Rays. The Guardians are gaining momentum and also reinforcements as they just claimed three pitchers off waivers from the Angels, who they have a four-game series with next week. The plan is obviously to pick up some ground on the Twins with the help of the new arms and then get on a roll when Naylor, Bieber, Quantrill, and McKenzie get back.
With the addition of Giolito the late September rotation is looking very formidable with some combination of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee and Allen or Quantrill, with the odd man out augmenting the bullpen. The question is whether we can keep up with the Twins until then or even cut into their lead so we can make a run when we’re at full strength. The other question is whether Bieber and McKenzie will be back at all. It's September now and there's no word on when they would even start rehab assignments.
But the immediate problem is the Rays. The Twins are playing in Texas this weekend so with a series win we have a chance to take another game off their lead ahead of the big series in Cleveland next week, assuming Texas wins two of three.
On paper this is a mismatch - the Rays are 30 games over .500 while the Guardians are 64-70 - a 36-game difference. The Rays have outscored their opponents by a whopping 186 runs, most in the A.L. and second only to Atlanta in the majors. But when these teams played in Tampa three weeks ago the Rays won 2-1 but the Guardians outscored them 22-17. The Guardians won game 3 by a 9-2 score and could easily have won the other two. In Game 1 Clase blew a 5-3 lead in the 9th, allowing three runs, and Wander Franco hit a walk-off solo HR off Nick Sandlin to win game 2.
The Guardians hit .330/.882 against Tampa in that series and averaged over 7 runs per game. I don’t expect that kind of run production this weekend. Last series we missed Tyler Glasnow but we face him tonight. We also get Aaron Civale again and a bullpen game. Quantrill, Allen, and Curry are the listed staters for the G’s, but I expect Lucas Giolito will start for Curry on Sunday.
The Rays are an offensive juggernaut, ranking 4th in the majors in runs per game (5.4) and 4th in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs per game. They are only 20th in walks - these guys like to swing the bat. Their pitching staff ranks 4th in ERA.
In the first series Yandy Diaz was the star, going 6-for-12 with a walk and three doubles. Wander Franco was 3-for-9 with 3 RBIs but he is on administrative lead after allegations of sexual misconduct. That’s a break because it takes a big bat out of their lineup. As a team they hit .260/.779 against the G’s. Former Indian Harold Ramirez was 3-for-8, all singles.
So the Rays are very strong in both hitting and pitching but the Guardians looked to be their match in Tampa and came close to sweeping. Only an uncharacteristic meltdown by Clase prevented a series win on the road.
This series the Guardians will not face Zach Elfin, who they rocked for six runs. They get Glasnow instead. Glasnow (7-4, 3.12 in 15 starts) is a 6’8”, 30-year-old right-hander. He has not faced the Guardians this year. Current Guardians are 6-for-36 against him. Jose is 0-for-9. Glasnow is death to right-handed hitters (.470 OPS) but lefties have done all right (.722). Glasnow is on a roll, having allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. In his last start he shut out the Yankees on one hit in six innings.
Cal Quantrill is making his return after missing two months with an injury. He sucked before the injury with a 6.45 ERA. I don’t think there’s any way that Cal keeps up with Glasnow. This game could be over by the 3rd or 4th inning. Yesterday was an off day so if Tito needs to use the bullpen early he will have pitchers available, including the two we just picked up from the Angels.
Getting to Glasnow will be very difficult. Combine that with Quantrill making his first start in quite a while and I don’t see the Guardians hanging with the Rays very long in the opener. The Guardians abused the Rays bullpen in the first series. Their bullpen had a 5.14 ERA in those three games. If the Guardians can run up the starters’ pitch counts and get to the bullpen after 5-6 innings they have a shot. They’ve been winning some games in the late innings recently.
Game 2 features Logan Allen against Zack Littel (3-4, 4.45) who is mainly a reliever. This looks like a semi-bullpen game for the Rays.
Game 3 has Aaron Civale, who has a 3.55 ERA since being traded, against either Curry or Giolito. The Rays have won each of Civale’s last four starts.
Despite being easily the inferior team, the Guardians have some things going for them. They are at home, they have some momentum, and they scored 22 runs in three games against this team in their park. In addition, the Rays have lost Franco which will leave a hole in their batting order. The Rays will be starting three right-handers, which is great for the Guardians. There’s a chance to win a game or even two in this series while we are scoreboard watching the Twins-Rangers scores.
With the calendar turning over it’s time for Jose Ramirez to get going. He hit .208 in August with 8 RBI’s in 25 games and had some bad at-bats with RISP. He needs to rebound with a vengeance in September and hit like he’s capable of. It all starts with patience, plate discipline, and swinging at good pitches to hit without chasing bad pitches and making easy outs or putting himself in a hole. I’m hoping that with Calhoun raking and Josh Naylor back soon Jose won’t feel like he has to drive in every run and will be more selective at the plate.
With the addition of Giolito the late September rotation is looking very formidable with some combination of Bieber, McKenzie, Williams, Bibee and Allen or Quantrill, with the odd man out augmenting the bullpen. The question is whether we can keep up with the Twins until then or even cut into their lead so we can make a run when we’re at full strength. The other question is whether Bieber and McKenzie will be back at all. It's September now and there's no word on when they would even start rehab assignments.
But the immediate problem is the Rays. The Twins are playing in Texas this weekend so with a series win we have a chance to take another game off their lead ahead of the big series in Cleveland next week, assuming Texas wins two of three.
On paper this is a mismatch - the Rays are 30 games over .500 while the Guardians are 64-70 - a 36-game difference. The Rays have outscored their opponents by a whopping 186 runs, most in the A.L. and second only to Atlanta in the majors. But when these teams played in Tampa three weeks ago the Rays won 2-1 but the Guardians outscored them 22-17. The Guardians won game 3 by a 9-2 score and could easily have won the other two. In Game 1 Clase blew a 5-3 lead in the 9th, allowing three runs, and Wander Franco hit a walk-off solo HR off Nick Sandlin to win game 2.
The Guardians hit .330/.882 against Tampa in that series and averaged over 7 runs per game. I don’t expect that kind of run production this weekend. Last series we missed Tyler Glasnow but we face him tonight. We also get Aaron Civale again and a bullpen game. Quantrill, Allen, and Curry are the listed staters for the G’s, but I expect Lucas Giolito will start for Curry on Sunday.
The Rays are an offensive juggernaut, ranking 4th in the majors in runs per game (5.4) and 4th in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs per game. They are only 20th in walks - these guys like to swing the bat. Their pitching staff ranks 4th in ERA.
In the first series Yandy Diaz was the star, going 6-for-12 with a walk and three doubles. Wander Franco was 3-for-9 with 3 RBIs but he is on administrative lead after allegations of sexual misconduct. That’s a break because it takes a big bat out of their lineup. As a team they hit .260/.779 against the G’s. Former Indian Harold Ramirez was 3-for-8, all singles.
So the Rays are very strong in both hitting and pitching but the Guardians looked to be their match in Tampa and came close to sweeping. Only an uncharacteristic meltdown by Clase prevented a series win on the road.
This series the Guardians will not face Zach Elfin, who they rocked for six runs. They get Glasnow instead. Glasnow (7-4, 3.12 in 15 starts) is a 6’8”, 30-year-old right-hander. He has not faced the Guardians this year. Current Guardians are 6-for-36 against him. Jose is 0-for-9. Glasnow is death to right-handed hitters (.470 OPS) but lefties have done all right (.722). Glasnow is on a roll, having allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. In his last start he shut out the Yankees on one hit in six innings.
Cal Quantrill is making his return after missing two months with an injury. He sucked before the injury with a 6.45 ERA. I don’t think there’s any way that Cal keeps up with Glasnow. This game could be over by the 3rd or 4th inning. Yesterday was an off day so if Tito needs to use the bullpen early he will have pitchers available, including the two we just picked up from the Angels.
Getting to Glasnow will be very difficult. Combine that with Quantrill making his first start in quite a while and I don’t see the Guardians hanging with the Rays very long in the opener. The Guardians abused the Rays bullpen in the first series. Their bullpen had a 5.14 ERA in those three games. If the Guardians can run up the starters’ pitch counts and get to the bullpen after 5-6 innings they have a shot. They’ve been winning some games in the late innings recently.
Game 2 features Logan Allen against Zack Littel (3-4, 4.45) who is mainly a reliever. This looks like a semi-bullpen game for the Rays.
Game 3 has Aaron Civale, who has a 3.55 ERA since being traded, against either Curry or Giolito. The Rays have won each of Civale’s last four starts.
Despite being easily the inferior team, the Guardians have some things going for them. They are at home, they have some momentum, and they scored 22 runs in three games against this team in their park. In addition, the Rays have lost Franco which will leave a hole in their batting order. The Rays will be starting three right-handers, which is great for the Guardians. There’s a chance to win a game or even two in this series while we are scoreboard watching the Twins-Rangers scores.
With the calendar turning over it’s time for Jose Ramirez to get going. He hit .208 in August with 8 RBI’s in 25 games and had some bad at-bats with RISP. He needs to rebound with a vengeance in September and hit like he’s capable of. It all starts with patience, plate discipline, and swinging at good pitches to hit without chasing bad pitches and making easy outs or putting himself in a hole. I’m hoping that with Calhoun raking and Josh Naylor back soon Jose won’t feel like he has to drive in every run and will be more selective at the plate.
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