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First day of fall (it's so depressing to see the end of another summer) and the Guardians return home for a four-game set against the mighty Baltimore Orioles, who at 95-57 have the second best winning percentage in baseball. The O’s are 38 games over .500; +15 at home and +23 on the road.
This will be a major challenge, especially with Gaddis starting Thursday and Bieber and McKenzie making their first starts since early in the season. We could see a lot of Orioles crossing home plate, especially the way our bullpen has performed recently. The pen should be pitching a lot of innings this weekend with Beebs and Stix on pitch counts and Gaddis unable to get into the middle innings.
The Guardians have been yo-yoing between sweeping the Rangers by a combined score of 23-6 followed by getting swept by the 102-loss Royals. Maybe they bounce back and play better at home. The Guardians took two of three against the Birds in Baltimore in late May, scoring 22 runs in the series.
The Guardians are now just one-half game ahead of the Tigers. They could easily find themselves in 3rd place by the end of the weekend. The Tigers have four games in Oakland.
The O’s are fourth in runs per game on the road at 5.6. They rank 21st in walks per game - these guys are free swingers. They’re 10th in on-base percentage and 5th in slugging percentage on the road. They’re 7th in road ERA so they have a nice balance of offense and pitching. Defensively they only ranked 23rd (Fangraphs) so maybe they gift us a few runs.
The O’s are led by 22-year-old rookie sensation Gunnar Henderson, who is hitting .260/.828 with 27 home runs and a 6.1 WAR. Henderson, who hits left-handed, has struck out 149 times against 51 walks, so you have to make him chase marginal pitches. Of his 27 home runs, 24 have come against RHP’s. He’s hitting .303/.918 in September.
1B Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .310/.854 while former Indian Anthony Santander is hitting .255/.800 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI’s. The Orioles have 12 players with an OPS north of .700, although Ryan Mountcastle will miss this series with an injury. They have capable hitters all the way through the order.
In the first series the O’s hit .272/.751 against the Guardians and scored 16 runs in three games. C Adley Rutschman was 5-for-7 and Santander was 7-for-13. However, the O’s only hit one home run and that was key.
The Guardians raked the O’s staff for a .327 average in that series. However, none of the four Orioles starters this weekend pitched an inning in that series, so it’s a new ballgame. The Guardians hammered the O’s bullpen that series for 16 earned runs in 15.1 innings. The Guardians’ bullpen allowed one run in 11.2 innings and that was the difference.
That was probably a fluke because the O’s bullpen ranks 2nd in WAR and xFIP and 5th in ERA (3.60) this season. Maybe we just caught them at a bad time.
In tonight’s opener, Hunter Gaddis comes up from the minors to fill in for the injured Tanner Bibee. In 39 major league innings this year Gaddis has an ERA of 4.85, but that’s mainly due to one horrible start against the Yankees in April where he allowed 8 runs in 3 innings. In his other 36 innings his ERA is 3.25.
The first time through the order opponents are hitting .194 against Gaddis. He usually starts strong, but once they’ve seen his pitches he’s in trouble. The second and third time through the order his BAA is .283 and .474. At this point he’s probably a three-inning pitcher. He does compete, however. With two out and RISP batters are just 3-for-20 against him.
Hunter’s problem is pitching from the windup. With nobody on base batters are hitting .300 with an on-base percentage of .391. It’s like there needs to be a scoring threat to get him to bear down. Gaddis has not faced the O’s this year.
The Orioles are going with RHP Grayson Rodriguez (6-4, 4.53). Rodriguez, age 23, has made 21 starts in his rookie season. In his last start he shut out the Rays for 8 dominant innings, allowing 5 hits and no walks. In his first 11 starts his ERA was 7.33 but in his last 10 starts it’s 2.65. He’s been very impressive after that adjustment period.
The results of this series don’t matter to the Guardians but the Orioles are just 2.5 games ahead of the Rays and don’t want to lose the division title and a first round bye. After seeing the Guardians annihilate the Rangers in their last home series they will not be complacent.
For the Guardians all eyes will be on Shane Bieber and Tristan McKenzie as they finally return to the rotation, albeit on limited pitch counts. Bieber starts Friday and McKenzie Sunday. It would be a huge boost going into the off-season if both of them pitched well and proved their arms were sound and fully recovered with no need for surgery. If both of them pitch 3-4 solid innings with no setbacks this weekend will be a huge success regardless of the final scores.
The O’s also have a starter returning from injury. John Means, a 30-year-old lefty, pitched only two games last year before going down. He will be making his third start this season on Saturday against Cal Quantrill.
Other than Means the O’s will be using three right-handed starters this series. Their ERA’s are 4.53 (Rodriguez), 4.17 (Kremer), and 5.00 (Gibson). The Guardians are +2 against right-handers and -11 against lefties, so we could see the Guardians put some runs on the board this weekend like they did against Baltimore in May.
Josh Naylor was 6-for-12 with 8 RBI’s in that series, so the O’s staff is probably already planning to intentionally walk him when possible. Jose was 5-for-15, Gimenez 6-for-13, and Will Brennan 5-for-8. Even Cam Gallagher went 3-for-8. The only Guardian who didn’t hit was Amed Rosario (1-for-13) and he’s no longer around.
This could be an entertaining series with a lot of baserunners on both sides. The key is to keep the Birds' hitters in the yard and for the Guardians to hit like they did against the Rangers last week and against the O’s at Camden Yards in May. And is getting a few two-out hits with RISP too much to ask?
This will be a major challenge, especially with Gaddis starting Thursday and Bieber and McKenzie making their first starts since early in the season. We could see a lot of Orioles crossing home plate, especially the way our bullpen has performed recently. The pen should be pitching a lot of innings this weekend with Beebs and Stix on pitch counts and Gaddis unable to get into the middle innings.
The Guardians have been yo-yoing between sweeping the Rangers by a combined score of 23-6 followed by getting swept by the 102-loss Royals. Maybe they bounce back and play better at home. The Guardians took two of three against the Birds in Baltimore in late May, scoring 22 runs in the series.
The Guardians are now just one-half game ahead of the Tigers. They could easily find themselves in 3rd place by the end of the weekend. The Tigers have four games in Oakland.
The O’s are fourth in runs per game on the road at 5.6. They rank 21st in walks per game - these guys are free swingers. They’re 10th in on-base percentage and 5th in slugging percentage on the road. They’re 7th in road ERA so they have a nice balance of offense and pitching. Defensively they only ranked 23rd (Fangraphs) so maybe they gift us a few runs.
The O’s are led by 22-year-old rookie sensation Gunnar Henderson, who is hitting .260/.828 with 27 home runs and a 6.1 WAR. Henderson, who hits left-handed, has struck out 149 times against 51 walks, so you have to make him chase marginal pitches. Of his 27 home runs, 24 have come against RHP’s. He’s hitting .303/.918 in September.
1B Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .310/.854 while former Indian Anthony Santander is hitting .255/.800 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI’s. The Orioles have 12 players with an OPS north of .700, although Ryan Mountcastle will miss this series with an injury. They have capable hitters all the way through the order.
In the first series the O’s hit .272/.751 against the Guardians and scored 16 runs in three games. C Adley Rutschman was 5-for-7 and Santander was 7-for-13. However, the O’s only hit one home run and that was key.
The Guardians raked the O’s staff for a .327 average in that series. However, none of the four Orioles starters this weekend pitched an inning in that series, so it’s a new ballgame. The Guardians hammered the O’s bullpen that series for 16 earned runs in 15.1 innings. The Guardians’ bullpen allowed one run in 11.2 innings and that was the difference.
That was probably a fluke because the O’s bullpen ranks 2nd in WAR and xFIP and 5th in ERA (3.60) this season. Maybe we just caught them at a bad time.
In tonight’s opener, Hunter Gaddis comes up from the minors to fill in for the injured Tanner Bibee. In 39 major league innings this year Gaddis has an ERA of 4.85, but that’s mainly due to one horrible start against the Yankees in April where he allowed 8 runs in 3 innings. In his other 36 innings his ERA is 3.25.
The first time through the order opponents are hitting .194 against Gaddis. He usually starts strong, but once they’ve seen his pitches he’s in trouble. The second and third time through the order his BAA is .283 and .474. At this point he’s probably a three-inning pitcher. He does compete, however. With two out and RISP batters are just 3-for-20 against him.
Hunter’s problem is pitching from the windup. With nobody on base batters are hitting .300 with an on-base percentage of .391. It’s like there needs to be a scoring threat to get him to bear down. Gaddis has not faced the O’s this year.
The Orioles are going with RHP Grayson Rodriguez (6-4, 4.53). Rodriguez, age 23, has made 21 starts in his rookie season. In his last start he shut out the Rays for 8 dominant innings, allowing 5 hits and no walks. In his first 11 starts his ERA was 7.33 but in his last 10 starts it’s 2.65. He’s been very impressive after that adjustment period.
The results of this series don’t matter to the Guardians but the Orioles are just 2.5 games ahead of the Rays and don’t want to lose the division title and a first round bye. After seeing the Guardians annihilate the Rangers in their last home series they will not be complacent.
For the Guardians all eyes will be on Shane Bieber and Tristan McKenzie as they finally return to the rotation, albeit on limited pitch counts. Bieber starts Friday and McKenzie Sunday. It would be a huge boost going into the off-season if both of them pitched well and proved their arms were sound and fully recovered with no need for surgery. If both of them pitch 3-4 solid innings with no setbacks this weekend will be a huge success regardless of the final scores.
The O’s also have a starter returning from injury. John Means, a 30-year-old lefty, pitched only two games last year before going down. He will be making his third start this season on Saturday against Cal Quantrill.
Other than Means the O’s will be using three right-handed starters this series. Their ERA’s are 4.53 (Rodriguez), 4.17 (Kremer), and 5.00 (Gibson). The Guardians are +2 against right-handers and -11 against lefties, so we could see the Guardians put some runs on the board this weekend like they did against Baltimore in May.
Josh Naylor was 6-for-12 with 8 RBI’s in that series, so the O’s staff is probably already planning to intentionally walk him when possible. Jose was 5-for-15, Gimenez 6-for-13, and Will Brennan 5-for-8. Even Cam Gallagher went 3-for-8. The only Guardian who didn’t hit was Amed Rosario (1-for-13) and he’s no longer around.
This could be an entertaining series with a lot of baserunners on both sides. The key is to keep the Birds' hitters in the yard and for the Guardians to hit like they did against the Rangers last week and against the O’s at Camden Yards in May. And is getting a few two-out hits with RISP too much to ask?
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