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2024 Allstar Break Report Card

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Douglar

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I sorted the roster by PER in basketball reference and the entire rotational roster breaks down into convenient pairs.

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Group 1) The stars: Mitchell and Allen fit and it shows. They are both efficient scorers. One rebounds. The other runs the offense. A+ Applause!!!

Group 2) The Mobleys: The only player comparable to Evan on the roster is his brother and that's only because they got the same last name. Evan is otherwise a unicorn and his best days are still ahead of him. He'd get a B if the season ended now but I can hope to see this grow to an A before the team cleans out the lockets for the summer.

Group 3) The PG's: Craig! and Garland are way closer than they should be in everything except 3 point attempts. Craig is over achieving and Garland under. I don't know how to feel about this pair at all, but if we can keep this level of production from the PG position, the Cavs are OK. Grade: B. PG position looks solid.

Group 4) Bench scorers: Merrill and LeVert are both the offense off the bench but they do it in very different ways. Merrill does it by shooting lights out with the best TS% on the team. LeVert by being a secondary ball handler and tossing bricks that give him the worst TS% on the team. I'm still not a LeVert fan, but I acknowledge that the team thrives with that 10% extra ball movement. Merrill is a one trick pony but that trick is called "lotsa points" and you can't lose if you score more points. And his ability to space might open up the floor as effectively as LeVert's ball movement. Grade: B

Group 5) The backup Centers: Tristan Thompson and Damian Jones backups. Thompson was better, but Damian can shoot a bit. If things go right for the rest of the season, neither will be important.

Group 6) Wings: Okoro and Strus are what passes for SF's on the team. Max is a basketball player. Isaac is an athlete. They contribute in very different ways but so far the amount they have contributed has been about the same according to advanced stats. Both might be better as guards in many lineups. Cavs still need a bit more from the SF spot and Strus hasn't been outstanding. Yet while both of these guys are still negative producers, the SF position is just a small drag on the team instead of the infected bed sore that it was last year. Strus deserves some credit for stabilizing a position that was on life support. They get a C, and that's a giant improvement.

Group 7) Stretch 4's: Wade and Niang are the stretch 4's. Wade rebounds better and has a decent +/-. Niang passes better and has a terrible +/-. I hope Wade doesn't forget how to shoot in April again. I hope Niang remembers how to shoot again by April. They both get a C-, and that's only because Niang got in that guys face yesterday

Long term, the Cavs need to move past their quartet of almosts: LeVert, Okoro, Wade, Naing. I don't see the team making it out of the east with these guys combining for 48 minutes a night. Now if the team replaces 3 of those guys with a legit rotational NBA wing that deserves 30 minutes a night, this team makes it to the finals.
 
Allen actually has the highest TS% - everything else seems spot on.

What's your grade of COY candidate JBB? :chuckle:
 
I sorted the roster by PER in basketball reference and the entire rotational roster breaks down into convenient pairs.

View attachment 19014

Group 1) The stars: Mitchell and Allen fit and it shows. They are both efficient scorers. One rebounds. The other runs the offense. A+ Applause!!!

Group 2) The Mobleys: The only player comparable to Evan on the roster is his brother and that's only because they got the same last name. Evan is otherwise a unicorn and his best days are still ahead of him. He'd get a B if the season ended now but I can hope to see this grow to an A before the team cleans out the lockets for the summer.

Group 3) The PG's: Craig! and Garland are way closer than they should be in everything except 3 point attempts. Craig is over achieving and Garland under. I don't know how to feel about this pair at all, but if we can keep this level of production from the PG position, the Cavs are OK. Grade: B. PG position looks solid.

Group 4) Bench scorers: Merrill and LeVert are both the offense off the bench but they do it in very different ways. Merrill does it by shooting lights out with the best TS% on the team. LeVert by being a secondary ball handler and tossing bricks that give him the worst TS% on the team. I'm still not a LeVert fan, but I acknowledge that the team thrives with that 10% extra ball movement. Merrill is a one trick pony but that trick is called "lotsa points" and you can't lose if you score more points. And his ability to space might open up the floor as effectively as LeVert's ball movement. Grade: B

Group 5) The backup Centers: Tristan Thompson and Damian Jones backups. Thompson was better, but Damian can shoot a bit. If things go right for the rest of the season, neither will be important.

Group 6) Wings: Okoro and Strus are what passes for SF's on the team. Max is a basketball player. Isaac is an athlete. They contribute in very different ways but so far the amount they have contributed has been about the same according to advanced stats. Both might be better as guards in many lineups. Cavs still need a bit more from the SF spot and Strus hasn't been outstanding. Yet while both of these guys are still negative producers, the SF position is just a small drag on the team instead of the infected bed sore that it was last year. Strus deserves some credit for stabilizing a position that was on life support. They get a C, and that's a giant improvement.

Group 7) Stretch 4's: Wade and Niang are the stretch 4's. Wade rebounds better and has a decent +/-. Niang passes better and has a terrible +/-. I hope Wade doesn't forget how to shoot in April again. I hope Niang remembers how to shoot again by April. They both get a C-, and that's only because Niang got in that guys face yesterday

Long term, the Cavs need to move past their quartet of almosts: LeVert, Okoro, Wade, Naing. I don't see the team making it out of the east with these guys combining for 48 minutes a night. Now if the team replaces 3 of those guys with a legit rotational NBA wing that deserves 30 minutes a night, this team makes it to the finals.
Any rating system that has Damian Jones, Tristan Thompson, and Isaiah Mobley ranked higher than Okoro and Strus isn't worth crap.

View attachment 19014


Group 7) Stretch 4's: Wade and Niang are the stretch 4's. Wade rebounds better and has a decent +/-. Niang passes better and has a terrible +/-. I hope Wade doesn't forget how to shoot in April again. I hope Niang remembers how to shoot again by April. They both get a C-, and that's only because Niang got in that guys face yesterday

Forget about PER, just look at the raw numbers. Wade blows Niang away in offensive and defensive rebound percentage, steal percentage, block percentage, wins shares, win shares per 48 minutes, and VORP. Wade even has the advantage in true shooting percentage, although Niang is supposed to be the shooter and Wade the rebounder/defender.

Niang has the edge in assist percentage only. And Wade's +/- is better than "decent" - it's +9.9, second only to Mitchell's +12.5, while Niang's -8.8 is by far the worst of any of the rotation players. The Cavs are 18.7 points better when Wade is on the court. There are reasons Niang has a "terrible +/-" as you pointed out. He's slow, unathletic, and sucks at most basketball skills. Giving both of them the same grade is ridiculous. Did you watch Niang stumble around, get abused defensively, and brick open 3's the last two games?

There's a reason he talks trash and picks fights on the court - firing up his teammates is his only way to contribute.

Here are the +/- numbers from the same source.

 
Any rating system that has Damian Jones, Tristan Thompson, and Isaiah Mobley ranked higher than Okoro and Strus isn't worth crap.



Forget about PER, just look at the raw numbers. Wade blows Niang away in offensive and defensive rebound percentage, steal percentage, block percentage, wins shares, win shares per 48 minutes, and VORP. Wade even has the advantage in true shooting percentage, although Niang is supposed to be the shooter and Wade the rebounder/defender.

Niang has the edge in assist percentage only. And Wade's +/- is better than "decent" - it's +9.9, second only to Mitchell's +12.5, while Niang's -8.8 is by far the worst of any of the rotation players. The Cavs are 18.7 points better when Wade is on the court. There are reasons Niang has a "terrible +/-" as you pointed out. He's slow, unathletic, and sucks at most basketball skills. Giving both of them the same grade is ridiculous. Did you watch Niang stumble around, get abused defensively, and brick open 3's the last two games?

There's a reason he talks trash and picks fights on the court - firing up his teammates is his only way to contribute.

Here are the +/- numbers from the same source.

Per is the best metric. Tim Duncan was always like 20th in the league jn his prime
 
Per is the best metric. Tim Duncan was always like 20th in the league jn his prime

I didn't mean to imply that PER tightly corresponds to player value. PER is primarily a usage metric first and scoring/rebound metric second. So it's not that big of a surprise that some of the players that play a similar role in JBB's system end up at a similar PER. But it is a little surprising that all of them do.
 
Allen actually has the highest TS% - everything else seems spot on.

What's your grade of COY candidate JBB? :chuckle:

Thanks for catching that.

As for JBB?
  • I liked what JBB did a couple years ago when he had to combine 3 7 footers. That wasn't easy. Was it coaching or was it necessity? Sometimes there's not much difference.
  • I didn't like what he did with the team last year or at the beginning of this year. The parts were under performing the sum of the talent.
  • Then this season when he discovered the PG-3Out-C lineups, was it coaching or was it necessity? Once again, sometimes there's not much difference. JBB deserves some credit for keeping the defense going.
So maybe JBB is just a blind squirrel that finds a nut sometimes. Or maybe he's just better when he's got some roster adversity. I'm just a rec league coach. I don't know what is going on with the Cavs. I'm just happy that they've been doing well.
 
I didn't mean to imply that PER tightly corresponds to player value. PER is primarily a usage metric first and scoring/rebound metric second. So it's not that big of a surprise that some of the players that play a similar role in JBB's system end up at a similar PER. But it is a little surprising that all of them do.
Yeah you are totally right. I just like mocking PER because for a long time it was treated as the best advanced metric but we know it has some massive flaws and I think even casual fans don't take it super seriously anymore
 
Yeah you are totally right. I just like mocking PER because for a long time it was treated as the best advanced metric but we know it has some massive flaws and I think even casual fans don't take it super seriously anymore

PER is the California Roll of advanced metrics. Got a lot of people to look at them but it’s weak sushi.
 
What I really want to see from JBB is some ruthless playoff mojo. I want him to find the other team’s weak spot and punch it until they pee blood. And if the opponent adjusts, find another weak spot and bang on that. You know, just do what Thibbs did to the Cavs last year.
 
What I really want to see from JBB is some ruthless playoff mojo. I want him to find the other team’s weak spot and punch it until they pee blood. And if the opponent adjusts, find another weak spot and bang on that. You know, just do what Thibbs did to the Cavs last year.
They should steal the slick leonard and open all the windows and turn on the ac to max in the locker room. Thr other team is so cheap they are trying to freeze us
 
They should steal the slick leonard and open all the windows and turn on the ac to max in the locker room. Thr other team is so cheap they are trying to freeze us

Slick Leonard. Awesome reference. He was a little bit nuts which used to be an asset for a coach.
 
My grades:
Mitchell: A much like others, started slow thanks to overuse and look checked out. Came back with one of his best runs of his career.
Allen: A better year than last year. Looks at peace with Mitchell
Mobley: B first injury plagued season for Evan, but game is progressing.
Garland: F much like Allen last year, regressing after 2 years of progress.
Okoro: A finally getting consistent production
Niang: D overused and getting exposed
Wade: B recovered from shoulder injury,
 
So far as the report card, I have some disagreement. For one, Caris doesn't always move the ball that well. He often is a ball stopper and sometimes dribbles too much then takes a bad shot.

You way underrated Strus. Are you kidding me. He gives great effort and makes clutch plays, and is the best deep shooter on the team, though some may favor Merrill.

And Niang, while he has some poor stats, he plays his best in the clutch and many of his points come when they're most needed.

Oh, and some butthead gave Garland an F -- WTF?
 
My grades:
Mitchell: A much like others, started slow thanks to overuse and look checked out. Came back with one of his best runs of his career.
Allen: A better year than last year. Looks at peace with Mitchell
Mobley: B first injury plagued season for Evan, but game is progressing.
Garland: F much like Allen last year, regressing after 2 years of progress.
Okoro: A finally getting consistent production
Niang: D overused and getting exposed
Wade: B recovered from shoulder injury,
Pretty spot. If I had to critique. Wade B+ and Mobley B- and Garland incomplete even though he is the first one I would have traded. To me Im evaluating trend and fit and not sheer talent. Mobley could leap to an A if he can knock down 3s like he has of late
 

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