2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread

[CDAV45]

But at catcher, IF you don't have at least average defense it does matter and Naylor isn't doing either right now...

Just stop with this dumb shit. Bo is our C and sending him down at this point is silliness. His development isn't finished and it needs to finish in Cleveland.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

So should we speculate on who gets the open spot on the 40 man? I'll start...

Daniel Schneemann.

I'm about ready to bring up Schneemann and put him at shortstop. He's hitting .275/1.023 in Columbus. That and put Fry behind the dish five times a week and Brennan in center and Florial in right every day.

Arias saw three straight sliders tonight, all in the zone. He swung and missed all three. Soriano didn't bother to change speeds, locations, or try and get him to chase something. It was just three sliders in the zone, we know you can't hit them. Just like Florial with the fastballs against the Astros. One, two, three strikes you're out. Even knowing what was coming Florial and Arias couldn't even foul it off.

Rocchio doesn't seem to be able to transfer the ball from his glove to his hand without fumbling it. Happened twice in the opener against the Angels and it's happened before. I don't think either of these guys is the long term answer at SS. When is Angel Martinez going to be able to play?

 

[MattyFos.]

I'm about ready to bring up Schneemann and put him at shortstop. He's hitting .275/1.023 in Columbus. That and put Fry behind the dish five times a week and Brennan in center and Florial in right every day.

Arias saw three straight sliders tonight, all in the zone. He swung and missed all three. Soriano didn't bother to change speeds, locations, or try and get him to chase something. It was just three sliders in the zone, we know you can't hit them. Just like Florial with the fastballs against the Astros. One, two, three strikes you're out. Even knowing what was coming Florial and Arias couldn't even foul it off.

Rocchio doesn't seem to be able to transfer the ball from his glove to his hand without fumbling it. Happened twice in the opener against the Angels and it's happened before. I don't think either of these guys is the long term answer at SS. When is Angel Martinez going to be able to play?

Arias and Rocchio are competing for most incompetent player. Neck and neck race.

 

[Tondo]

Arias and Rocchio are competing for most incompetent player. Neck and neck race.

I don't know how you can watch their ABs and come to that conclusion. Just look at their first one's yesterday, night and day.

Arias' second AB that resulted in a "hit" was as bad as his first one swinging at a 2-0 pitch below the zone and then getting a home scorers single off a high throw by the pitcher. I don't want to see him for a few days after those games. He's looking more and more like Erik Gonzalez 2.0, another "potential" player we wasted way too much time on

 

[Tondo]

And when it comes to KC and DET, these guys have been pretty lucky with injuries (lack thereof). As soon as inevitably a couple of key players drop there, they'll fade again. Detroit has only Urshela missing, KC a couple of arms that have been down since last year, while Guards...

Bieber, Williams, Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, Morgan...thats half their pitching staff on the 26 roster down. Plus Espino, Cantillo, other 40 roster top prospects like DeLauter, Valera, Martinez...and even good depth hit with Z. Kent and Enright out. It's been blow after blow.

A quarter of our 40 roster is/was injured, that's crazy. Cross the equivalent of those off the Tigers and Royals roster and they'd suck

 

[petes999]

And when it comes to KC and DET, these guys have been pretty lucky with injuries (lack thereof). As soon as inevitably a couple of key players drop there, they'll fade again.

Cross the equivalent of those off the Tigers and Royals roster and they'd suck

The issue though is, what is ... is what is. And, what will become is equally likely .... the probability that Witt gets injured is the same as Ramirez getting injured before the end of the year (actually Ramirez being older, he can be more likely). Same as Singer getting injured is as likely as Bibee.

Yes, things tend to even out over the long-road (5 years let's say). But, over the next few months, the probability that our players go down even more is just as likely as KC losing the equivalent. And, yes, KC has more better players now than we do (due to our injuries). But, Williams could suffer a different injury in rehab just as likely as a Singer/Ragans going down in their next start.

We just can't hope that KC and Det lose due to future injuries that may or may not happen. We have seen this FO stick with their rookies battles Arias/Rocchio and the guys signed in Laureano (at least till deadline). These guys just have to play better or we will lose this lead. With Minni injuries coming back before ours, they (and KC) can be in first within a week (only 1.5 back now with .5 game back for KC).

What felt like a helium balloon is starting to fade. This is from MLB (surprise teams -- KC first w 13 mlb FO/exec votes and Cle second w 7 votes)...
“I still don’t fully trust it, but they make contact and do a lot of little things well,” an AL executive said. “I saw them closer to a .500 or slightly better team, but given their pitching injuries, I’m surprised they’ve been this good.”

But, let's be honest, .... do we really believe Lively is our Cy Young candidate???? Hopefully, for at least one more game tonight

 

[PIP]

Starting to lose faith, boys!!

 

[Tondo]

Rocchio is garbage and you should let go of his nutsack.

Dude, you're certified fade material, so this is good news for Rocchio.

He just had the best AB by any Guards player yesterday, right after Arias swung and missed at 3 sliders and got ridiculed by Undermanning repeatedly throughout the broadcast because he kept doing this shit in his next PAs.

Arias is Erik Gonzalez 2.0

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

And when it comes to KC and DET, these guys have been pretty lucky with injuries (lack thereof). As soon as inevitably a couple of key players drop there, they'll fade again. Detroit has only Urshela missing, KC a couple of arms that have been down since last year, while Guards...

Bieber, Williams, Stephan, Karinchak, Hentges, Morgan...thats half their pitching staff on the 26 roster down. Plus Espino, Cantillo, other 40 roster top prospects like DeLauter, Valera, Martinez...and even good depth hit with Z. Kent and Enright out. It's been blow after blow.

A quarter of our 40 roster is/was injured, that's crazy. Cross the equivalent of those off the Tigers and Royals roster and they'd suck

I would point out that although we have indeed had bullpen injuries, the performances of the guys who replaced Stephan, Karinchak, and Hentges have been very good. In fact, I think we upgraded.

Stephan had a 4.06 ERA last year and a 1.30 WHIP. I consider that below average for a relief pitcher. Same with Karinchak; he had a 4.15 ERA. Hentges was good except for a couple of really bad outings, but Herrin is pitching better this year than Sam did last year.

The Guardians' bullpen is tied for the major leage lead in WAR. They're first in FIP and tied for third in saves. I can't say that the bullpen injuries have hurt the team. If anything they made the bullpen better. Last year the bullpen FIP was 4.02; this year it's 2.69.

Obviously Bieber and Williams have been huge losses. That's 40% of our starts going down. We've had no injuries to position players. I heard the other day that the Guardians are the only team left that has the same position players they had on Opening Day.

As for the injuries to Cantillo, Espino, Martinez, and Delauter, those guys are in the minors so those injuries haven't affected the Guardians' record.

The Bieber injury was a massive hit because it's forcing us to trot Carrasco and his 6.89 ERA out there every fifth game.

Getting Hentges back will help a lot, IMO, because we'll have two lefties and they can alternate days, or even use both of them in the same game if it goes to extras and the opponent has a couple of badass left-handed hitters in the middle of their order.

Replacing Carrasco with Williams will be another big upgrade, if Williams can make it back this year.

If Bo and Freeman start hitting and Jose gets going - look out. This team has a lot of upside both in terms of pitching and hitting.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I thought I'd take a look at how Rocchio is doing compared to last year, being careful to steer clear of the Rocchio vs. Arias debate. It's looking to me like the Guardians' have plans for both of them with Rocchio getting a legitimate shot at the every day shortstop job and Arias being a guy they can play almost everywhere to give various starters a DH day.

First thing I noticed was Rocchio's walk percentage has dramatically improved from 4.7% last year to 11.4% this year. By the way, Rocchio had 86 PA's last year against 105 so far this year, so the sample sizes are similar (although very small).

Rocchio's strikeout percentage has declined from 31.4% to 18.1%, so both his strikeouts and walks are going strongly in the right direction. In fact, his walk percentage is the third highest on the team behind Fry and Josh Naylor, which is impressive. You'd think a rookie #9 hitter with no power would NEVER get walked with Kwan et al coming up next.

His out-of-zone swing percentage has dropped from 44% last year to 31%, a huge improvement which explains the surge in walks and decline in strikeouts.

His WAR has improved from -0.4 last year to 0.2. His wRC+ has gone from 65 to 89. His defense has gone from -2.2 to 0.0.

His expected slugging percentage has gone from .237 to .327. His xBA has gone from .184 to .233. His Statcast hard hit percentage has improved from 16.4% to 26.0%. His launch angle has improved from 1.5 to 4.9 degrees and his barrel percentage has gone from 0.0 to 4.9%. His ground ball percentage has gone from 60% to 48% while his line drive percentage jumped from 18% to 24%.

So I'm seeing signficant progress in every area; offense, defense, and base running. Now I can already hear Bimbo saying that Rocchio has gone from being an extremely bad player to a below average one, and no argument there. A shortstop with a 0.0 defensive rating and a wRC+ of 89 is not helping you win games. If this is his peak then he will eventually be replaced.

The key for Rocchio is whether he can keep these positive trends going, and if so, how far can he take them. I'd love to have another Francisco Lindor at shortstop but there's no chance Rocchio ever turns into a 30-HR, 100-RBI guy. His future may be as a utility infielder. But he's got his OBP up to .317 and if he can push it up a little higher I think he will be a more than adequate #9 hitter.

He has also stolen five bases in seven attempts (after stealing none last year) so he's on pace to steal 25. If our #9 hitter can get on base at about a .340 clip and steal 25 bases I'd be OK with that.

In his last five games he has five hits, five walks, and three stolen bases. Let's see if he can keep it going. After the first eight games he was hitting .310/.858, then he tailed off until the last five games when he got on base 10 times in 19 PA's. I think young players are more prone to ups and downs as opposed to consistent production.

Whether he's better than Arias as the every day shortstop I don't know. I hope he has not reached his peak at age 23 years and 3 months. I'm pretty sure he hasn't - how many players are maxed out at 23 with 171 major league at-bats?

 

[Soar]

I really truly don't think Arias or Rocchio are the answer at SS. I don't think either can be every day guys at a premium position where you have guys like Bobby Witt and De La Cruz and many others.

Arias is just beyond frustrating to me at times.... because when he's bad.... its outrageously awful. That AB last night... I flipped it on during the Cavs game. I see Arias get the same pitch, same spot, 3 times in a row, and he swings like a 6 year old with a whiffle ball bat. That's just lack of focus or care, at least in that moment.

Rocchio just screams meh to me.

I think at one time, you could project Arias as a Jhonny Peralta type guy and Rocchio as an Asdrubal Cabrera type guy... Neither guy is or seems to be developing in that way.

And I'm not sure that level of player (Peralta or Cabrera) is even worth waiting around for anyways.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Looking at Arias' trends since last year is interesting but he only has 69 PA's against 345 last year so we should give him at least another 250 PA's before coming to any hard conclusions. But here's what it looks like in the early going.

His walk percentage has declined dramatically from 8.1% last year to 1.4% this year. He's clearly not as patient. He's swinging at 49% of the pitches outside the strike zone, by far the highest on the team. Last year he chased 38%, so we're seeing a major regression in plate discipline.

The rest of his offensive game is a mixed bag. On the positive side his BA is up from .210 to .254 and his slugging percentage is up from .352 to .388. His wRC+ has improved from 74 to 90. His BABIP is up from .290 to .348 so there may be some luck helping him out this year.

But his average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage are all down. He's just not hitting the ball as hard or as consistently as last year and his strike zone recognition as really gone to hell. I don't think that .348 BABIP is sustainable so if his swing selection doesn't improve I suspect his numbers will be dropping across the board.

The enticing part of his game was how hard he hit the ball when he made contact. But his hard hit percentage is down from 46% to 34%.

Arias is not good at making contact on pitches outside the zone; only Florial is worse on this year's team and last year Gabe ranked 17 of 18 in outside zone contact percentage. So he cannot afford to continue chasing almost half of the pitches he sees out of the zone. Kwan can get away with it - his contact rate is 84% on those pitches. Arias as at 49%.

Bimbo pointed out that young players who are in and out of the lineup and moved around to various positions have a hard time producing. It's a lot easier to play every day at the same position. So this needs to be taken into consideration when looking at Arias, along with the small sample of 69 PA's.

But I'm concerned about the significant regression in his strike zone recognition. I don't see any way he can be a successful major league player unless that improves dramatically. He's consistently getting himself out or putting himself in two-strike counts by chasing bad pitches.

It's very possible that because he's only playing about three times a week he feels pressure to do something impressive when he gets a chance so he's overly aggressive. Valaika needs to talk to him about that and about waiting for a pitch he can drive.

 

[BimboColesHair]

I thought I'd take a look at how Rocchio is doing compared to last year, being careful to steer clear of the Rocchio vs. Arias debate. It's looking to me like the Guardians' have plans for both of them with Rocchio getting a legitimate shot at the every day shortstop job and Arias being a guy they can play almost everywhere to give various starters a DH day.

First thing I noticed was Rocchio's walk percentage has dramatically improved from 4.7% last year to 11.4% this year. By the way, Rocchio had 86 PA's last year against 105 so far this year, so the sample sizes are similar (although very small).

Rocchio's strikeout percentage has declined from 31.4% to 18.1%, so both his strikeouts and walks are going strongly in the right direction. In fact, his walk percentage is the third highest on the team behind Fry and Josh Naylor, which is impressive. You'd think a rookie #9 hitter with no power would NEVER get walked with Kwan et al coming up next.

His out-of-zone swing percentage has dropped from 44% last year to 31%, a huge improvement which explains the surge in walks and decline in strikeouts.

His WAR has improved from -0.4 last year to 0.2. His wRC+ has gone from 65 to 89. His defense has gone from -2.2 to 0.0.

His expected slugging percentage has gone from .237 to .327. His xBA has gone from .184 to .233. His Statcast hard hit percentage has improved from 16.4% to 26.0%. His launch angle has improved from 1.5 to 4.9 degrees and his barrel percentage has gone from 0.0 to 4.9%. His ground ball percentage has gone from 60% to 48% while his line drive percentage jumped from 18% to 24%.

So I'm seeing signficant progress in every area; offense, defense, and base running. Now I can already hear Bimbo saying that Rocchio has gone from being an extremely bad player to a below average one, and no argument there. A shortstop with a 0.0 defensive rating and a wRC+ of 89 is not helping you win games. If this is his peak then he will eventually be replaced.

The key for Rocchio is whether he can keep these positive trends going, and if so, how far can he take them. I'd love to have another Francisco Lindor at shortstop but there's no chance Rocchio ever turns into a 30-HR, 100-RBI guy. His future may be as a utility infielder. But he's got his OBP up to .317 and if he can push it up a little higher I think he will be a more than adequate #9 hitter.

He has also stolen five bases in seven attempts (after stealing none last year) so he's on pace to steal 25. If our #9 hitter can get on base at about a .340 clip and steal 25 bases I'd be OK with that.

In his last five games he has five hits, five walks, and three stolen bases. Let's see if he can keep it going. After the first eight games he was hitting .310/.858, then he tailed off until the last five games when he got on base 10 times in 19 PA's. I think young players are more prone to ups and downs as opposed to consistent production.

Whether he's better than Arias as the every day shortstop I don't know. I hope he has not reached his peak at age 23 years and 3 months. I'm pretty sure he hasn't - how many players are maxed out at 23 with 171 major league at-bats?

It’s not that he’s gone from an “extremely bad player to a below average player”.

It’s that we are celebrating improvements in areas going from league worst to one of the leagues worst. That isn’t the good thing we are treating it as. Is an improvement up to a .327 xSLG better? Yes? Is it still bottom of the barrel in the MLB? Yes. Is an improvement to a 26% hard hit rate good? Yes. Is it still bottom of the barrel in the MLB? Yes. Is an improvement to a 48% GB rate better? Yes. Is it still one of the highest rates in baseball? Yes.

We are talking about a number of areas that don’t need improvements on them to lead to better results, but dramatic improvements. And you know how frequently that happens for players in the MLB? Not often.

Like guys like Brennan I’m sure will be brought up as softer hitting guys that Rocchio can be in the mold of as justification to think more may be coming, but in his first taste of MLB pitching Brennan flashed significantly louder batted ball metrics than Rocchio has. Brennan’s first 100 PAs between 2022 and 2023 his EVs, expected stats, hard hit rates, etc. looked a lot like this years figures in those areas. He had already flashed it before it became more consistent here in 2024.

We haven’t seen anything like that from Rocchio, and that’s the concern. Usually from guys who make it you see flashes of what could be coming and it just is there inconsistently. We saw that with Lindor when he first came up, a player people like comparing Rocchio to for some reason.

Trends up are good. The BB, K, and contact stuff being up to his more normal minors figures are nice to see, but it’s still hard to see how he is going to make dramatic improvements in the areas he lacks. For every Jose Ramirez, soft hitting high contact guy who develops more power, there are 100 Owen Millers and Myles Straws who put the ball in play a lot but never for any real impact in the MLB.

This has nothing to do with Gabriel Arias either, but I’m sure it will be turned into that for some dumb reason.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Arias is just beyond frustrating to me at times.... because when he's bad.... its outrageously awful. That AB last night... I flipped it on during the Cavs game. I see Arias get the same pitch, same spot, 3 times in a row, and he swings like a 6 year old with a whiffle ball bat. That's just lack of focus or care, at least in that moment.

That was a slider on the outside corner and down in the zone. On that pitch Arias needs to wait longer and take it to right field. He has tremendous power the other way and when he's getting breaking balls on the outside corner his eyes should light up.

It looked to my untrained eye that he was out in front and trying to pull those pitches. Anything away he needs to drive to right field.

Also, he stands farther away from home plate than any batter I've ever seen. It doesn't look like he can even hit a pitch on the outside corner, although I know he can. I wonder if he should move in a little.

 

[BimboColesHair]

Just because a few years ago it was a common question in “how many guys can be successful with a 25%+ K rate” and develop better contact rates, I wonder how many sub .350 slugging rookies have developed the pop and overall offensive profile necessary to be a productive big league hitter in modern baseball.

Just because I was curious on that, rookies with a sub .350 slugging that went on to be highly productive (over a career 100 wRC+) bats in the MLB since 2010 are the following:

Eugenio Suarez
Brian Dozier
Yandy Diaz
Michael Brantley
Justin Turner
Nolan Schanuel
Gio Urshela
Jonathan Lucroy

That’s the list right now. Out of 157 qualifying rookies to post a sub .350 slug since 2010.