Lee
Hall-of-Famer
- Joined
- Apr 27, 2005
- Messages
- 41,297
- Reaction score
- 62,335
- Points
- 148
I dont think it matters, its hot out, everyone's balls are foul.
-
Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.
2024 Guardians Regular Season Thread
- Thread starter AZ_
- Start date
I dont think it matters, its hot out, everyone's balls are foul.
Criznit
Ack Ack
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2020
- Messages
- 11,742
- Reaction score
- 10,263
- Points
- 123
I have always been a huge Freeman fan, so I pick him. Injuries slowed him in the minors and some of the "issues" he expressed (the can't take a walk stuff) has worked itself out. He hits the ball hard enough and runs OK.
Once thoroughly in the grind I expect some of his bad luck to dissipate and he could "take off". He has the potential to bat in the top 3 of the lineup if he hits his marks.
There's more but I am at work.
Last edited:
What are you holding against Lorenzo Cedrola? Come on, you can admit it
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,347
- Reaction score
- 29,677
- Points
- 135
Will Brennan is hitting .345/.849 in May (9 games). For the season he's 8-for-21 (.381) with RISP. And with RISP and two out he's 5-for-13 (.385/1.077).
Compared to last year his ISO is up (.090 to .163) and also his slugging percentage (.356 to .413). His wRC+ is up from 81 to 96. His HR/FB is up from 4.5% to 11.8%. Last year he had five home runs; this year he already has four in less than 25% of the at-bats.
His hard hit percentage is up from 21% to 36% and his pull percentage is up from 35% to 46%. Incredibly, his average exit velo is up from 85.7 to 90.2. His barrel percentage has jumped from 2.4% to 6.7% and his average launch angle has improved slightly.
All this despite getting off to a slow start; he was hitting .213 at the end of April.
Last year Brennan chased a whopping 42% of pitches out of the zone; this year it's 41% so he's still making a lot of bad swing decisions. But he's making contact on 75% of pitches out of the zone, so he's fouling a lot of them off and keeping the at-bat alive.
If Will could cut down his chase rate to around 30% or so he would be one hell of a hitter. He has really good bat-to-ball ability. It's just a matter of him swinging at better pitches. He's pulling the ball more, hitting more balls hard, his average exit velo is way up, he's hitting more home runs, and barreling up more balls. Everything is going in the right direction and now he's locked in.
Can't wait to see if he can keep this up. He won't hit .345 the rest of the year, but can he hit .300 with 25 home runs, say next year?
Brennan had an interesting quote after last night's game.
"The goal of the pitcher is to move batter’s heads up and down and back and forth."
Sounds like Will has a good idea of what pitchers are trying to do.
Compared to last year his ISO is up (.090 to .163) and also his slugging percentage (.356 to .413). His wRC+ is up from 81 to 96. His HR/FB is up from 4.5% to 11.8%. Last year he had five home runs; this year he already has four in less than 25% of the at-bats.
His hard hit percentage is up from 21% to 36% and his pull percentage is up from 35% to 46%. Incredibly, his average exit velo is up from 85.7 to 90.2. His barrel percentage has jumped from 2.4% to 6.7% and his average launch angle has improved slightly.
All this despite getting off to a slow start; he was hitting .213 at the end of April.
Last year Brennan chased a whopping 42% of pitches out of the zone; this year it's 41% so he's still making a lot of bad swing decisions. But he's making contact on 75% of pitches out of the zone, so he's fouling a lot of them off and keeping the at-bat alive.
If Will could cut down his chase rate to around 30% or so he would be one hell of a hitter. He has really good bat-to-ball ability. It's just a matter of him swinging at better pitches. He's pulling the ball more, hitting more balls hard, his average exit velo is way up, he's hitting more home runs, and barreling up more balls. Everything is going in the right direction and now he's locked in.
Can't wait to see if he can keep this up. He won't hit .345 the rest of the year, but can he hit .300 with 25 home runs, say next year?
Brennan had an interesting quote after last night's game.
"The goal of the pitcher is to move batter’s heads up and down and back and forth."
Sounds like Will has a good idea of what pitchers are trying to do.
PocketMonger
Situational Stopper
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2020
- Messages
- 383
- Reaction score
- 428
- Points
- 63
So when are we going to start talking about Gimenez's batting this year? He's posted a 650OPS with a 291 BAIP. He's not hitting for power and only getting on base 31.6% of the time. After a torrid 14 game start he's hitting below the Mendoza line in the past 22 games. His K rate is only 15% for the year.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,347
- Reaction score
- 29,677
- Points
- 135
Here's a chunk of a column from The Athletic on whether the Guardians' winning is sustainable:
Jason [Lloyd]: Here are some OPS numbers for the season entering Thursday night: Steven Kwan .903 (yay!), Josh Naylor .900 (pow!) and José Ramírez .718 (meh). Now put on a hard hat and duck: Will Brennan .697, Estevan Florial .669, Andrés Giménez .668, Brayan Rocchio .620, Tyler Freeman .618, Gabriel Arias .609, Bo Naylor .558, Ramon Laureano .530.
Zack [Meisel]: And yet, the Guardians rank eighth in the sport in runs per game. Maybe it doesn’t have to make sense. This team confounds me.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they have a huge lead on the rest of the league in platoon advantage. They’re trying to win on the margins as much as they can. They’ve hit .293/.382/.460 with runners in scoring position, an OPS in those situations that rates 26 percent better than league average. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they rate 40 percent better than league average.
It will be fascinating to watch going forward - the Guardians have so many hitters producing below or well below expectations, yet they are 8th in scoring, mainly because they are so far above average with RISP.
I don't think the Guardians will continue to hit this well with RISP (they were 1-for-8 last night against the White Sox), but all those guys who are in the 600's in OPS should hit better, right? Bo Naylor won't continue at a .558 OPS, right? Jose won't continue to hit .238/.733, right?
But the Guardians have the 6th lowest strikeout percentage, so they put the ball in play more than all but five other teams. When the ball is in play it can find a hole, so teams that put more balls in play tend to drive in more runs than teams that strike out with runners on 3rd. The Guardians are tied for 4th in sacrifice flies.
Yes, they are "winning on the margins". They rank 5th in speed, 7th in stolen bases, and 8th in doubles. They lead the majors in getting hit by pitches. They're 4th in sacrifice flies. They are great at getting runners around the bases - stealing a bag, taking an extra base, and getting a sac fly or a clutch hit. All this stuff will continue, except maybe the clutch hitting will come back to the pack.
But we should see improved overall production from Jose, Gimenez, Bo Naylor, Freeman, Brennan, and Arias. I'm not sure about Florial and Laureano. Florial clearly can't even foul off a high fastball and Laureano is a mess.
Jason [Lloyd]: Here are some OPS numbers for the season entering Thursday night: Steven Kwan .903 (yay!), Josh Naylor .900 (pow!) and José Ramírez .718 (meh). Now put on a hard hat and duck: Will Brennan .697, Estevan Florial .669, Andrés Giménez .668, Brayan Rocchio .620, Tyler Freeman .618, Gabriel Arias .609, Bo Naylor .558, Ramon Laureano .530.
Zack [Meisel]: And yet, the Guardians rank eighth in the sport in runs per game. Maybe it doesn’t have to make sense. This team confounds me.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they have a huge lead on the rest of the league in platoon advantage. They’re trying to win on the margins as much as they can. They’ve hit .293/.382/.460 with runners in scoring position, an OPS in those situations that rates 26 percent better than league average. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they rate 40 percent better than league average.
It will be fascinating to watch going forward - the Guardians have so many hitters producing below or well below expectations, yet they are 8th in scoring, mainly because they are so far above average with RISP.
I don't think the Guardians will continue to hit this well with RISP (they were 1-for-8 last night against the White Sox), but all those guys who are in the 600's in OPS should hit better, right? Bo Naylor won't continue at a .558 OPS, right? Jose won't continue to hit .238/.733, right?
But the Guardians have the 6th lowest strikeout percentage, so they put the ball in play more than all but five other teams. When the ball is in play it can find a hole, so teams that put more balls in play tend to drive in more runs than teams that strike out with runners on 3rd. The Guardians are tied for 4th in sacrifice flies.
Yes, they are "winning on the margins". They rank 5th in speed, 7th in stolen bases, and 8th in doubles. They lead the majors in getting hit by pitches. They're 4th in sacrifice flies. They are great at getting runners around the bases - stealing a bag, taking an extra base, and getting a sac fly or a clutch hit. All this stuff will continue, except maybe the clutch hitting will come back to the pack.
But we should see improved overall production from Jose, Gimenez, Bo Naylor, Freeman, Brennan, and Arias. I'm not sure about Florial and Laureano. Florial clearly can't even foul off a high fastball and Laureano is a mess.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,347
- Reaction score
- 29,677
- Points
- 135
Andres has earned some grace with his clutch hitting. He's hitting an insane .400 with RISP (16-for-35) and .300 with RISP and two out. He's been the best hitter on the team in the most important at-bats.
However, he's only hitting .150 leading off an inning and .173 with nobody on. He started off the season taking a lot of bad pitches and getting ahead in the count. At the end of April he was hitting .280/.721, which is about where I hope he would be at the end of the season. But in May he's chasing lots of bad pitches and is hitting .147. He needs to get back to being patient, especially with nobody on base. He has 2 hits in his last 27 at-bats.
As long as he continues to play Gold Glove defense and drive in runs you're not going to hear many complaints.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,347
- Reaction score
- 29,677
- Points
- 135
And the conclusion to the Lloyd and Meisel column:
I think the main takeaway here is that this sizzling start could force the front office to act aggressively in upgrading the roster, something the organization hasn’t done since much of this roster was in high school. This isn’t like last summer, when the Guardians sat near the top of the division but never resembled a team that had plans to catch fire. It’s a lot better to be asking whether something’s sustainable than asking whether something can be jump-started. If the key characters return to their levels — Ramírez, Williams, Kwan, Giménez — then an addition or two in a couple of months might answer our prompt for us with a resounding yes.
I think the main takeaway here is that this sizzling start could force the front office to act aggressively in upgrading the roster, something the organization hasn’t done since much of this roster was in high school. This isn’t like last summer, when the Guardians sat near the top of the division but never resembled a team that had plans to catch fire. It’s a lot better to be asking whether something’s sustainable than asking whether something can be jump-started. If the key characters return to their levels — Ramírez, Williams, Kwan, Giménez — then an addition or two in a couple of months might answer our prompt for us with a resounding yes.
Meatwad
formerly shake
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2007
- Messages
- 2,005
- Reaction score
- 2,054
- Points
- 113
As a non normal fan I would like the FO to not deal future talent for today talent this year. We need health and another year in the oven.
But I'm not gonna complain if they pull a rabbit trick.
And I'm sure as hell gonna enjoy the development and the continued success as we ride it.
If it were up to me first and second priority is locking up dudes like Naylor and Bieber (team/surgery friendly)
But I'm not gonna complain if they pull a rabbit trick.
And I'm sure as hell gonna enjoy the development and the continued success as we ride it.
If it were up to me first and second priority is locking up dudes like Naylor and Bieber (team/surgery friendly)
sportscoach
RD's Guardians PR Man!
- Joined
- Dec 8, 2016
- Messages
- 21,125
- Reaction score
- 9,743
- Points
- 113
Like I wouldn't be against a Jay Bruce (Aka lower prospect for a veteran MLB player) but I wouldn't want to trade a Chourio type for a short term asset for sure...
PocketMonger
Situational Stopper
- Joined
- Oct 24, 2020
- Messages
- 383
- Reaction score
- 428
- Points
- 63
Yeah rental bats are pretty cheap but rental SP’s that are worth a damn are still pretty spendy. Tough spot for Cleveland.
KluberSociety
NBA Starter
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2018
- Messages
- 4,391
- Reaction score
- 3,941
- Points
- 113
BOR rental SPs are generally in line with rental bats, it's more teams competing to bolster their playoff rotations that will overpay for the top of the line SP. BOR can help us get into the playoffs, if they can eat some innings.
- Joined
- Oct 3, 2019
- Messages
- 10,347
- Reaction score
- 29,677
- Points
- 135
Fangraphs has a column on "Small Sample Superstars". Ben Lively is the first one featured.
For a pitcher who works in the air as much as Lively does (38.9% fly ball rate last year; 44.4 this year), moving out of Great American Ball Park can only be a good thing. And Lively has thrived since his arrival at the other end of Ohio. His repertoire is a six-pitch smorgasbord, as right-handers who throw 90 mph have to get by through whatever means necessary. But his four-seamer and sinker are playing off each other much better this year; the four-seamer’s added a couple inches of movement in both axes, and he’s shed nearly 140 points of opponent batting average on that pitch. Lively’s strikeout rate is up to 28.6% from 20.6%, and his HR/FB% is back down in the single digits.
It’s only been four starts, so I don’t expect him to continue to be such a perfect Shane Bieber replacement all year. But Lively wasn’t awful last year — homers notwithstanding — and if he can keep the ball in the yard, he ought to remain a useful starter.
For a pitcher who works in the air as much as Lively does (38.9% fly ball rate last year; 44.4 this year), moving out of Great American Ball Park can only be a good thing. And Lively has thrived since his arrival at the other end of Ohio. His repertoire is a six-pitch smorgasbord, as right-handers who throw 90 mph have to get by through whatever means necessary. But his four-seamer and sinker are playing off each other much better this year; the four-seamer’s added a couple inches of movement in both axes, and he’s shed nearly 140 points of opponent batting average on that pitch. Lively’s strikeout rate is up to 28.6% from 20.6%, and his HR/FB% is back down in the single digits.
It’s only been four starts, so I don’t expect him to continue to be such a perfect Shane Bieber replacement all year. But Lively wasn’t awful last year — homers notwithstanding — and if he can keep the ball in the yard, he ought to remain a useful starter.
KluberSociety
NBA Starter
- Joined
- Apr 10, 2018
- Messages
- 4,391
- Reaction score
- 3,941
- Points
- 113
If the K rate was to be the hope for him being drastically improved then he's lost most of that already in his stats (I updated that your quote), but he still looks like a solid enough BOR type. I'll take anything I can get from him.
rich/buffalo
Rookie
- Joined
- Mar 29, 2020
- Messages
- 13
- Reaction score
- 25
- Points
- 13
I agree 100%.Give Bieber a 3 year deal for 60 mil.Then watch our future rotation of Bieber,Espino,Williams,Bibee,Cantillo,Nikhazy,T-Mac,Clemmy,Campbell,Webb,Humphries,and Wilkinson,backed by a bullpen of Clase,Herrin,Smith,Walters,Aleman,Stephan,Torres,Hentges,Ellerts,Messick,Miko,Zibin,Leftwich,Hankins,and Enright.Is??? that enough depth?