2024 Minor League Thread

[CATS44]

• Guardians are currently middle of the pack with HR's (22), tied with Texas and the Yankees
• 3rd in 2B
• 5th in SLG
• 5th in Hits
• 5th in Batted Balls
• 6th in BA
• 7th best in SO but 4th worst in BB
• 8th in WOBA

Advanced:

• 2nd worst in Barrel %
• 3rd worst in Hard Hit %
• 6th worst in Exit Velo

For the nerds out there, what does this data tell you?

The Guards are on pace to win 118 games. Obviously, that is unsustainable.

There is a lot of unsustainability going on here, beginning with the pitching. The pen is on pace to throw 700 IP. It is on pace for 8.7 fWAR. That is unsustainable, and has never been done. But at the moment it is the main reason for the teams success.

The teams wRC+ is 25% higher than last year. While you can reasonably expect a natural progression for a young team full of youngsters with some upward trends, 25% is unreasonably high, and unsustainable over 162 games.

Out of 22 games, we have played 12 vs teams that can reasonably be considered contenders. We have won 7 of those games. (.583) Depending upon which teams you consider contenders at the moment, almost two thirds of our remaining games are vs contenders.

.583, or a 95 game win rate, vs contenders is unsustainable for just about any team, let alone this one.

Batting .327 w/RISP (#2) is unsustainable.

Holding opposition batters to a .171 BA with w/RISP (#1) is unsustainable.

Teams on hot streaks are not as good as their records. Teams in slumps are not as bad as their records.

The Pirates began last year at 20-8. 24 games later they were 26-26. They finished 76-86.

The Guards aren't as good as the record. Its gonna take a couple months to find out just how good they are.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Look at Eli Morgan...

5'10 and 190... 90 MPH fastball (as a starter) with a plus changeup and other pitches

Will Dion...

5'10 and 180... 90 MPH fastball with a plus changeup with other pitches...

Dion is a left handed version of Morgan in my mind... He mimics Kershaw, but I feel his comparable is a left handed Morgan... Hence why in my mind, I am replacing Morgan with Dion for 25...

Morgan's fastball this year averages 92.4 mph according to Statcast. Last year 92.7.

 

[Damage]

The Guards are on pace to win 118 games. Obviously, that is unsustainable.

There is a lot of unsustainability going on here, beginning with the pitching. The pen is on pace to throw 700 IP. It is on pace for 8.7 fWAR. That is unsustainable, and has never been done. But at the moment it is the main reason for the teams success.

The teams wRC+ is 25% higher than last year. While you can reasonably expect a natural progression for a young team full of youngsters with some upward trends, 25% is unreasonably high, and unsustainable over 162 games.

Out of 22 games, we have played 12 vs teams that can reasonably be considered contenders. We have won 7 of those games. (.583) Depending upon which teams you consider contenders at the moment, almost two thirds of our remaining games are vs contenders.

.583, or a 95 game win rate, vs contenders is unsustainable for just about any team, let alone this one.

Batting .327 w/RISP (#2) is unsustainable.

Holding opposition batters to a .171 BA with w/RISP (#1) is unsustainable.

Teams on hot streaks are not as good as their records. Teams in slumps are not as bad as their records.

The Pirates began last year at 20-8. 24 games later they were 26-26. They finished 76-86.

The Guards aren't as good as the record. Its gonna take a couple months to find out just how good they are.

Fantastic as always and fair. Thanks!

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

• Guardians are currently middle of the pack with HR's (22), tied with Texas and the Yankees
• 3rd in 2B
• 5th in SLG
• 5th in Hits
• 5th in Batted Balls
• 6th in BA
• 7th best in SO but 4th worst in BB
• 8th in WOBA

Advanced:

• 2nd worst in Barrel %
• 3rd worst in Hard Hit %
• 6th worst in Exit Velo

For the nerds out there, what does this data tell you?

That you can have the 5th best slugging percentage without many barreled or hard hit balls. Lots of soft line drives down the lines that turn into doubles. We're 3rd in doubles.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Guards are on pace to win 118 games. Obviously, that is unsustainable.

There is a lot of unsustainability going on here, beginning with the pitching. The pen is on pace to throw 700 IP. It is on pace for 8.7 fWAR. That is unsustainable, and has never been done. But at the moment it is the main reason for the teams success.

The teams wRC+ is 25% higher than last year. While you can reasonably expect a natural progression for a young team full of youngsters with some upward trends, 25% is unreasonably high, and unsustainable over 162 games.

Out of 22 games, we have played 12 vs teams that can reasonably be considered contenders. We have won 7 of those games. (.583) Depending upon which teams you consider contenders at the moment, almost two thirds of our remaining games are vs contenders.

.583, or a 95 game win rate, vs contenders is unsustainable for just about any team, let alone this one.

Batting .327 w/RISP (#2) is unsustainable.

Holding opposition batters to a .171 BA with w/RISP (#1) is unsustainable.

Teams on hot streaks are not as good as their records. Teams in slumps are not as bad as their records.

The Pirates began last year at 20-8. 24 games later they were 26-26. They finished 76-86.

The Guards aren't as good as the record. Its gonna take a couple months to find out just how good they are.

Being the devil's advocate...

Gavin Williams and Sam Hentges pitching no innings this year isn't sustainable.

Jose hitting .263/.655 isn't sustainable.

Bo hitting .185, Laureano .178, Brennan .222, and Freeman .217 isn't sustainable.

The Guardians having an on-base percentage of .284 with no runners on isn't sustainable (it was .307 last year).

How do you know they're on a hot streak? They've only played 7 of 22 games against teams over .500. Maybe they're an above average team beating bad teams.

 

[sportscoach]

Morgan's fastball this year averages 92.4 mph according to Statcast. Last year 92.7.

It was 90 in 21 when he had 18 starts... Pitchers can usually get 2-3 MPH on their fastballs between starting and the pen, which is what Morgan and Gaddis both have done.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Getting back to the farm, I was looking at the Fangraphs power rankings of every minor league player, all 3,749 of them. They rank them on "year-to-date production" in several categories while considering the age and level of the prospect. Apparently they don't factor in reputation or scouting reports - just how well they are producing this year with respect to their age and level.

Here are the top Guardians:

13 Matt Wilkinson RP, A (2nd highest ranked player in A ball)
42 Kyle Manzardo, AAA
46 Jaison Chourio, A
51 Ralphy Velasquez, A
71 Nic Enright, AAA (age 27)
73 Jonathan Rodriguez, AAA
84 Andrew Walters, AA
101 Daniel Schneeman, AAA
105 Angel Genao, A
144 Parker Messick, A+
253 Juan Brito, AAA
259 Jack Jasiak, A
264 Doug Nikhazy, AA
293 Austin Peterson, A+
307 Ryan Webb, AA
308 Petey Halpin, AA

So we have one guy performing in the top 1% (Wilkinson), and five more in the top 2% (through #75) . Then three more in the top 3% (through #112). The rest are in the top 10%, through #375.

Nine players performing in the top 3% and seven more in the top 3-10%. Five are at AAA, four at AA, two at high A, and five at A, giving us a nice distribution.

So who the heck is Matt Wilkinson? He was our 10th round pick last year out of Central Arizona College. He's a left-handed relief pitcher. He's listed at 6'1", 270 pounds. I thought that must be a misprint, but several sources agree. He's 21.

So far he's pitched 14.2 innings for Lynchburg, allowing one run, six hits, five walks, and striking out 26. Interesting prospect.

 

[Benway]

So who the heck is Matt Wilkinson? He was our 10th round pick last year out of Central Arizona College. He's a left-handed relief pitcher. He's listed at 6'1", 270 pounds. I thought that must be a misprint, but several sources agree. He's 21.

Tugboat Wilkinson!

 

[macbdog]

That the Guardians are playing above their heads and due for a regression?

I disagree I think they just might be the '15-'16 Warriors of MLB. Thank goodness there is no LBJ in baseball.

 

[Damage]

Tugboat Wilkinson!

OMFG he's perfect. Tomato face does it for me

 

[MirORich]

Getting back to the farm, I was looking at the Fangraphs power rankings of every minor league player, all 3,749 of them. They rank them on "year-to-date production" in several categories while considering the age and level of the prospect. Apparently they don't factor in reputation or scouting reports - just how well they are producing this year with respect to their age and level.

Here are the top Guardians:

13 Matt Wilkinson RP, A (2nd highest ranked player in A ball)
42 Kyle Manzardo, AAA
46 Jaison Chourio, A
51 Ralphy Velasquez, A
71 Nic Enright, AAA (age 27)
73 Jonathan Rodriguez, AAA
84 Andrew Walters, AA
101 Daniel Schneeman, AAA
105 Angel Genao, A
144 Parker Messick, A+
253 Juan Brito, AAA
259 Jack Jasiak, A
264 Doug Nikhazy, AA
293 Austin Peterson, A+
307 Ryan Webb, AA
308 Petey Halpin, AA

So we have one guy performing in the top 1% (Wilkinson), and five more in the top 2% (through #75) . Then three more in the top 3% (through #112). The rest are in the top 10%, through #375.

Nine players performing in the top 3% and seven more in the top 3-10%. Five are at AAA, four at AA, two at high A, and five at A, giving us a nice distribution.

So who the heck is Matt Wilkinson? He was our 10th round pick last year out of Central Arizona College. He's a left-handed relief pitcher. He's listed at 6'1", 270 pounds. I thought that must be a misprint, but several sources agree. He's 21.

So far he's pitched 14.2 innings for Lynchburg, allowing one run, six hits, five walks, and striking out 26. Interesting prospect.

Good stuff. Thought he was a starter though. I could certainly be wrong

 

[Benway]

OMFG he's perfect. Tomato face does it for me

Worked for Mickey Lolich!

 

[jmilo]

OMFG he's perfect. Tomato face does it for me

Holy moly, what a specimen!

If he ever gets called up, we might not be able to bring him with us when we play the Orioles.

Baltimore might still fear for their bridges.

 

[cliffdawg]

That the Guardians are playing above their heads and due for a regression?

Actually the starting pitchers outside of Bieber who’s lost for the season have been Avg to bad…..,..

 

[KluberSociety]

Good stuff. Thought he was a starter though. I could certainly be wrong

He has been starting. Fangraphs does this thing sometimes where they label players as where they think they'll end up, not sure if that's what has been going on here. 3 starts for 14.2 innings in A ball.