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2024 NBA Draft
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Bob_The_Cat
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At least from what I’ve seen, there should be a number of guys available at 20 who can play the 3/4 and are much better basketball players. Maybe if the Cavs get another pick in the 30-40 range.
MD13
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Here’s my hot take for this class… haven’t watched Dillon Jones beyond cutups and box score watching, but he has flashes of what I loved so much about Jalen Williams as a prospect.People keep mentioning Da Silva but my draft model really doesn't like him.
Final numbers are below.........I keep staring at two names: DaRon Holmes and Devin Carter.
Everything about their data screams they will be good NBA players....they both just have so few statistical weaknesses when looking at possession based production. In the world where we might trade Garland, I'm intrigued at just how good Carter's draft profile is......and how he's currently in that middle 1st range.
"Mock" column is the current consensus number rookiescale spits out, so subject to change. But you want guys above the PDIFF median (.79-.80) for success outcomes......and you see how many guys are sub 20 mock draft slot consensus, that are above that median line (18) and then a handful who are in the teens that could be maneuvered for (4-5).
So just a lot of middle-late 1st draft talent this year, which is great. The other 3 columns shown are PPFGA (scoring efficiency), 3P/PTS (good indicator of gravity) and HUSTLE (combination of steals, OREB, blocks, which has always been a great single stat that is sticky for prospects).
He just seems so multi-talented with some skill in dribbling, shooting, and finishing around the rim that I’ll be shocked if he busts. And based on his play making it seems he’s got pretty good processing speed as well.
Big weakness that I see right now is he’s not extremely mobile and a bit small to be a 4, but it looks to me like he can probably lose a bit of weight and level up the athleticism.
Also love what I’ve seen from DaRon Holmes. Seems like the perfect guy to either back up Mobley or play alongside him once he develops that 3 pt shot to the NBA line.
MirORich
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Not sure I can get too invested in this draft when I feel it’s highly likely whoever we pick will be dealt on draft night or shortly thereafter
I could imagine the Cavs trying to sell DET a Niang/Wade/20 package for Isaiah Stewart for example
LeVert/Wade/20 for Keldon Johnson
LeVert/Niang/20 for Jerami Grant
I could imagine the Cavs trying to sell DET a Niang/Wade/20 package for Isaiah Stewart for example
LeVert/Wade/20 for Keldon Johnson
LeVert/Niang/20 for Jerami Grant
cliffdawg
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I think any trade that happens with the Cavs, will come after they figure out what they going to do with Garland/ Mitchell situation…..Then I think a domino affect will come after that, I like the the Ideal of seeing could we steal Stewart from the Pistons, perfect 3rd big that could play with Allen and Mobley, another big I like that I think that would be perfect for our structure is Collin’s from Utah.
Adam
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I hate Collins. Reminds me of josh Smith. Just not a winner.
cliffdawg
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Don’t know much about Collins attitude, but I would love to have him right now……
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As of May 12 (liable to change), I say eff them wings and go get Filipowski…
With the current roster, it seems like any wing available at #20 is going to have their warts.. I’m not sure there’s a clean fit and any one of them is going to require some projection..
To me, Filipowski seems like such a seamless fit with Allen and Mobley and especially with Mobley in the starting lineup if they move on from Allen.. He’s not Kevin Love he has the same outline of skills that Love had which made him such a good fit next to the bigs.. In order to make the fit work, either two bigs or one, a guy like Filipowski is more valuable and harder to find than the myriad of wings who may be available..
Ask me in a month and I may change my mind but I’m on the Filipowski Freight to Cleveland..
With the current roster, it seems like any wing available at #20 is going to have their warts.. I’m not sure there’s a clean fit and any one of them is going to require some projection..
To me, Filipowski seems like such a seamless fit with Allen and Mobley and especially with Mobley in the starting lineup if they move on from Allen.. He’s not Kevin Love he has the same outline of skills that Love had which made him such a good fit next to the bigs.. In order to make the fit work, either two bigs or one, a guy like Filipowski is more valuable and harder to find than the myriad of wings who may be available..
Ask me in a month and I may change my mind but I’m on the Filipowski Freight to Cleveland..
I'mWithDan
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I feel like data continues to say the opposite again and again. We don't need a lotto ticket. We need a real rotational player that can get on the floor.
Assuming mocks are pretty accurate at this point that is Carter (probably need to trade up), Filipowski (ditto), Ware, Da Silva, Holmes, Jones, Kolek, Shannon Jr (pending cases) and Dunn.
That roughly seems like the pool of players we should be picking from. Given how much Koby seems to hate production, I would imagine it will be someone similar to Smith.
Seems like a an extremely poor homeless man’s version of Lauri Markkanen…making me nostalgic here
I'mWithDan
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Really curious how both measure, as their draft profiles are so strong. Jones seems to be getting the most recent buzz, so it appears like there is some juice there with NBA scouts, as they have dug in on the post NCAA season process.
I'm definitely interested to see how he tests and how he looks athletically in drills. He does so many impactful things on the court. Especially with his combination of defensive rebound / transition passing......he would be such a good wing to pair with Mobley specifically.
One of the big markers for wings out kicking their draft stock is per 100 rebounding (Jones lands in the top 15 of this metric all time, among wings). It seems to hint at a combination of anticipation, strength and athleticism at that spot. Just sorting by rebounding among wings gets you these guys in the top 15:
Kawhi, Roberson, Durant, Wemby, Jalen Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Tari Eason, Kyle Anderson, Tobias Harris, Jaquez.
It just appears to be a really sticky stat at that spot and not all those guys are hyper athletes. Kyle Anderson is probably who he reminds me of most of......just play speed wise, with hints of some more athletic upside. And if you get Kyle Anderson with a little more juice, that is a really good NBA player.
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I'mWithDan
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The fun thing about logging all this stuff in a database is you can quickly pull names like this.
I think your comments are a little disingenuous here. Lauri posted a better shooting season than Kyle, but Kyle did everything else better and by a VERY, VERY wide margin. When you are talking per 100 basis and seeing Fillipowski post +2.3 REB, +3.7 AST, +1.4 STL, +1.9 BLK.......those are enormous gaps.
And Fillipowski saw a marked improvement from 3 from a percentage basis, on higher volume. He seems like a guy that can continue to develop in to a lethal stretch 5. And, most uniquely to me, he's a stretch 5 who can still bang, rebound and create stocks. That is a pretty rare profile type, looking around the NBA.
Most stretch 5's are absolute stiffs athletically or too small to go inside and bang......I personally love his fit with Mobley, I just think he's probably a guy that is not there 1,000 times out of 1,000 given where we sit. We'll need to move up for him, just given his profile type is so hard to find.
MattyIce8
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The fun thing about logging all this stuff in a database is you can quickly pull names like this.
I think your comments are a little disingenuous here. Lauri posted a better shooting season than Kyle, but Kyle did everything else better and by a VERY, VERY wide margin. When you are talking per 100 basis and seeing Fillipowski post +2.3 REB, +3.7 AST, +1.4 STL, +1.9 BLK.......those are enormous gaps.
And Fillipowski saw a marked improvement from 3 from a percentage basis, on higher volume. He seems like a guy that can continue to develop in to a lethal stretch 5. And, most uniquely to me, he's a stretch 5 who can still bang, rebound and create stocks. That is a pretty rare profile type, looking around the NBA.
Most stretch 5's are absolute stiffs athletically or too small to go inside and bang......I personally love his fit with Mobley, I just think he's probably a guy that is not there 1,000 times out of 1,000 given where we sit. We'll need to move up for him, just given his profile type is so hard to find.
This is more of a curiosity post. I saw Akron’s Enrique Freeman got an official combine invite. What does your model say about him? He’s an interesting story if you read some articles about him. Also a local kid.