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After a brilliant 5-2 start on the west coast the Guardians conclude this road trip with three day games against the Twins. The Guards took the season series 7-6 last year. The Guardians will face the top three pitchers in the Twins’ rotation while the Twins will face 3-5 in the Guardians’ rotation.
Some preseason observations on the Twins from the media:
The Twins are not “better,” if that’s what you’re wondering. But they’re still the team to beat in the AL Central. Their ability to repeat as division champs, sans Sonny Gray and Jorge Polanco, hinges on a series of familiar ifs. If Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are healthy. If Carlos Correa’s bat returns. If the Pablo López-led rotation turns in numbers like it did in 2023. The Twins have a balanced lineup, an experienced rotation and a shutdown bullpen (when healthy, which it very much isn’t at this hour). But while they may have all they need to win the division, it’s all still less than they had last year. - The Athletic (which has the Twins 13th in their preseason power poll)
The Twins followed their postseason win with a fairly low-key offseason. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray left as a free agent, as did Kenta Maeda, and stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco was traded for pitching depth. Payroll was slashed from $153.7 million last Opening Day to a projected $126.8 million in 2024 (per FanGraphs) in part due to the uncertainty of the Bally Sports situation.
Projected rotation:
RHP Pablo López
RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Bailey Ober
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Anthony DeSclafani
RHP Louie Varland
López has developed into an ace, otherwise everyone in the rotation is maybe a rung higher than you'd like. Things would look a bit better with Ryan at No. 3, Ober at No. 4, and Paddack at No. 5. As things stand, DeSclafani is favored to get the No. 5 spot over Varland, though he was slowed by an elbow issue early in camp. Varland impressed as a reliever late last season and would step into the rotation should DeSclafani miss time. Paddack returned from his second Tommy John surgery as a reliever in September and will now transition back into the rotation, and may require careful handling….Relievers are unpredictable, but, on paper, the Twins have one of the better bullpens in the sport. - CBS Sports
The Twins won the AL Central last season despite getting a combined 2.2 WAR in 220 games from Buxton and Correa. Buxton had knee trouble that limited him to DH duty -- he slashed .207/.294/.438 and that's not going to cut it as a DH -- and Correa was hampered by injuries all year, most notably plantar fasciitis.
Buxton had knee surgery in October and feels good enough now that he'll return to center field this season. He did not play a single inning in the field last year….As for Correa, who is still only 29, the plantar fasciitis subsided over the winter, and he changed some things with his swing after the worst 162-game season of his career a year ago…
The difference between the Twins being a good team that gets steamrolled in the postseason and a very good team with a chance to win the pennant is these two players. If Buxton and Correa stay healthy and perform as expected, the offense and defense will be among the best in the sport. What are the odds that happens? History says not great, particularly with Buxton, but that's what it will take for the Twins to be at their best. These two leading the charge along with Lewis, Kepler, et al. - CBS Sports
The Twins got off to a rough start as they lost their expected #5 starter, Anthony DeSclafani, for the season. Then Royce Lewis suffered a quad strain in the first game and could be out up to two months. Lewis is an outstanding talent who hit .309/.921 with 15 homers and 52 RBI’s in just 58 games last year. Project those numbers to 150 games and he would have been a 6.2 WAR player.
They also lost their closer, Jhoan Duran, until at least April 27. Duran had 27 saves last year.
The Twins are 3-2 and averaging 3.6 runs per game so far. Their run differential is -1 against +28 for the Guardians. They are hitting .211 as a team with 3 home runs, one of which was hit by Royce Lewis, who is out.
The Twins ranked 11th in scoring last year at 4.74 runs per game.
The Guardians appear to be catching them at a good time with Lewis and Duran out. That’s their best hitter and their closer. Willi Castro, who took over at third base for Lewis, is 2-for-16 with 7 K’s.
Pablo Lopez, the Twins’ ace, starts the opener. Lopez was 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA last year. He went 7 innings allowing 1 run in this year’s opener against the Royals. He faced Cleveland three times last year, once getting lit up and the other two times allowing 1 and 2 runs over 6 innings. Current Guardians players are hitting .375/.927 against him. Gimenez and Kwan are both 5-for-11 while Jose is 4-for-13.
Tanner Bibee goes for the Guards. Bibee struggled in his first start, giving up 6 hits and 5 walks in 4 innings to Oakland, but he escaped with just 3 runs allowed. Current Twins players hit .194 against him last year. He had three five-inning starts against the Twins last year, allowing 2, 2, and 3 runs.
Through their first four games the Twins are hitting .161 against right-handed pitching (15-for-93) with 3 RBI’s. They’ve done substantially better against lefties.
Joe Ryan faces Carlos Carrasco on Saturday and Bailey Ober goes against Tristan McKenzie on Sunday. After eight straight days of baseball the Guardians finally get a break on Friday.
All five Twins starters are right-handed which I think will give the Guardians an advantage this year as they can stack the order with eight left-handed hitters like they did successfully in Seattle against Gilbert and Castillo.
Some preseason observations on the Twins from the media:
The Twins are not “better,” if that’s what you’re wondering. But they’re still the team to beat in the AL Central. Their ability to repeat as division champs, sans Sonny Gray and Jorge Polanco, hinges on a series of familiar ifs. If Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are healthy. If Carlos Correa’s bat returns. If the Pablo López-led rotation turns in numbers like it did in 2023. The Twins have a balanced lineup, an experienced rotation and a shutdown bullpen (when healthy, which it very much isn’t at this hour). But while they may have all they need to win the division, it’s all still less than they had last year. - The Athletic (which has the Twins 13th in their preseason power poll)
The Twins followed their postseason win with a fairly low-key offseason. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray left as a free agent, as did Kenta Maeda, and stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco was traded for pitching depth. Payroll was slashed from $153.7 million last Opening Day to a projected $126.8 million in 2024 (per FanGraphs) in part due to the uncertainty of the Bally Sports situation.
Projected rotation:
RHP Pablo López
RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Bailey Ober
RHP Chris Paddack
RHP Anthony DeSclafani
RHP Louie Varland
López has developed into an ace, otherwise everyone in the rotation is maybe a rung higher than you'd like. Things would look a bit better with Ryan at No. 3, Ober at No. 4, and Paddack at No. 5. As things stand, DeSclafani is favored to get the No. 5 spot over Varland, though he was slowed by an elbow issue early in camp. Varland impressed as a reliever late last season and would step into the rotation should DeSclafani miss time. Paddack returned from his second Tommy John surgery as a reliever in September and will now transition back into the rotation, and may require careful handling….Relievers are unpredictable, but, on paper, the Twins have one of the better bullpens in the sport. - CBS Sports
The Twins won the AL Central last season despite getting a combined 2.2 WAR in 220 games from Buxton and Correa. Buxton had knee trouble that limited him to DH duty -- he slashed .207/.294/.438 and that's not going to cut it as a DH -- and Correa was hampered by injuries all year, most notably plantar fasciitis.
Buxton had knee surgery in October and feels good enough now that he'll return to center field this season. He did not play a single inning in the field last year….As for Correa, who is still only 29, the plantar fasciitis subsided over the winter, and he changed some things with his swing after the worst 162-game season of his career a year ago…
The difference between the Twins being a good team that gets steamrolled in the postseason and a very good team with a chance to win the pennant is these two players. If Buxton and Correa stay healthy and perform as expected, the offense and defense will be among the best in the sport. What are the odds that happens? History says not great, particularly with Buxton, but that's what it will take for the Twins to be at their best. These two leading the charge along with Lewis, Kepler, et al. - CBS Sports
The Twins got off to a rough start as they lost their expected #5 starter, Anthony DeSclafani, for the season. Then Royce Lewis suffered a quad strain in the first game and could be out up to two months. Lewis is an outstanding talent who hit .309/.921 with 15 homers and 52 RBI’s in just 58 games last year. Project those numbers to 150 games and he would have been a 6.2 WAR player.
They also lost their closer, Jhoan Duran, until at least April 27. Duran had 27 saves last year.
The Twins are 3-2 and averaging 3.6 runs per game so far. Their run differential is -1 against +28 for the Guardians. They are hitting .211 as a team with 3 home runs, one of which was hit by Royce Lewis, who is out.
The Twins ranked 11th in scoring last year at 4.74 runs per game.
The Guardians appear to be catching them at a good time with Lewis and Duran out. That’s their best hitter and their closer. Willi Castro, who took over at third base for Lewis, is 2-for-16 with 7 K’s.
Pablo Lopez, the Twins’ ace, starts the opener. Lopez was 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA last year. He went 7 innings allowing 1 run in this year’s opener against the Royals. He faced Cleveland three times last year, once getting lit up and the other two times allowing 1 and 2 runs over 6 innings. Current Guardians players are hitting .375/.927 against him. Gimenez and Kwan are both 5-for-11 while Jose is 4-for-13.
Tanner Bibee goes for the Guards. Bibee struggled in his first start, giving up 6 hits and 5 walks in 4 innings to Oakland, but he escaped with just 3 runs allowed. Current Twins players hit .194 against him last year. He had three five-inning starts against the Twins last year, allowing 2, 2, and 3 runs.
Through their first four games the Twins are hitting .161 against right-handed pitching (15-for-93) with 3 RBI’s. They’ve done substantially better against lefties.
Joe Ryan faces Carlos Carrasco on Saturday and Bailey Ober goes against Tristan McKenzie on Sunday. After eight straight days of baseball the Guardians finally get a break on Friday.
All five Twins starters are right-handed which I think will give the Guardians an advantage this year as they can stack the order with eight left-handed hitters like they did successfully in Seattle against Gilbert and Castillo.
