At The Quarter Turn

[Montgo]

I'm not going to suggest that you're right or wrong, only that if preparing for next year and beyond is the mantra then I don't want to half ass it. That means adios to Eddie and Cesar by the break and dealing a certain individual by no later than the start of the 22 season.

Because I think this team can compete now with an addition or 2, I'd prefer to go that route. We're headed for a roster crunch and some difficult decisions anyway.

I agree with this. The Indians are trying to thread the needle between now and the future. No issue with that approach in theory, but their execution is not the greatest. This isn’t totally surprising given how they hoard fringe players and methodically prioritize who gets a shot based on reasons other than being the best option.

I think it would serve them best to pick a lane and go with it. Both for this season and for the future, because it’s possible what they’re doing now could prove detrimental to both. Worst case scenario for this season would be treading water to 85-88 wins on the cusp of contention and doing nothing to clear up the pending logjam on the 40 man roster. This organization does a lot well, but analysis paralysis does seem to hold them back in regards to roster decision making. They either need to open up LF/2B to audition youngsters with an eye on the future or show an urgency to fix the current roster. I prefer they do the latter, whether that be a trade similar to 2016 season or making a move like Tampa just did yesterday.

I appreciate the FO mentality of not wanting to let controllable talent go. But that line of thinking doesn’t always align with trying to win. They cannot put off making decisions on guys forever. The pending roster crunch will not allow them to continue the cycle of waiting until guys are out of options to give them a shot simply out of fear. They are really good at acquiring puzzle pieces. I think they could be better putting the puzzle together.

 

[CDAV45]

I agree with this. The Indians are trying to thread the needle between now and the future. No issue with that approach in theory, but their execution is not the greatest. This isn’t totally surprising given how they hoard fringe players and methodically prioritize who gets a shot based on reasons other than being the best option.

I think it would serve them best to pick a lane and go with it. Both for this season and for the future, because it’s possible what they’re doing now could prove detrimental to both. Worst case scenario for this season would be treading water to 85-88 wins on the cusp of contention and doing nothing to clear up the pending logjam on the 40 man roster. This organization does a lot well, but analysis paralysis does seem to hold them back in regards to roster decision making. They either need to open up LF/2B to audition youngsters with an eye on the future or show an urgency to fix the current roster. I prefer they do the latter, whether that be a trade similar to 2016 season or making a move like Tampa just did yesterday.

I appreciate the FO mentality of not wanting to let controllable talent go. But that line of thinking doesn’t always align with trying to win. They cannot put off making decisions on guys forever. The pending roster crunch will not allow them to continue the cycle of waiting until guys are out of options to give them a shot simply out of fear. They are really good at acquiring puzzle pieces. I think they could be better putting the puzzle together.

Not a single thing you said do I disagree with. As it is in its present state, this team is probably not a real contender this season, but I don't believe it would take much to make it one. "On the cusp" describes this team for me.

I'm aggressive by nature. I don't mind being wrong, but doing nothing should not be an option. The one path that I don't want them to take(and they very well may do so) is the wait and see. I'd be happy with being aggressive to improve this team's chances this year or being aggressive stockpiling some ready talent for next year and beyond.

What these guys have done while never tanking a season is amazing. I'd go as far to say that it should be the industry standard. Having said that, I think they spend too much time trying to fit the puzzle pieces together. My ADD doesn't afford me that kind of patience. I'm grabbing a piece and if it doesn't fit I'm throwing the damn thing down and grabbing another one. As usual, the best way is probably somewhere in between.

 

[CATS44]

I agree somewhat with Montgo.

My biggest criticism, although its nit picking when you look at the overall results, is that the org simply won't make tough decisions when looking at their prospects.

The team wouldn't have lost a single game over the last several years if we had cut ties with kids like Zimmer and Chang. And it might have won a few more if we had traded them when they had real value.

The few times that the organization was decisive with their prospects in terms of trades they have been ultra successful.

*********

On a previous note, you can't compare slash lines of players from different eras.

Using football as an example, the most dominant QB in NFL history was Otto Graham, but his stat line wouldn't even get him a college scholarship today.

 

[CATS44]

To carry this a bit farther, this years offensive production is so skewed as to make it almost impossible to judge players. In just two seasons, offense, which was already down two years ago, has fallen of a cliff.

Josh Naylors OPS in 2019 was .719. This year so far it is .718.

But in 2019 his OPS+, a measurement as to how well he did in comparison to all batters at the time, was 91. He was 9% under the average. This season he is at 98, merely 2% below average.

Thats a big difference.

In 1996 Eddie Murray had an OPS of .728 for us. His OPS+ was 84.

In terms of how productive a player is within his era, Naylors .718 is far more productive than Murray's .728 was.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Naylor has been amazing from the 7th inning on. They showed the stats last night during the game. He's coming along nicely.

 

[CDAV45]

At the quarter turn...........we definitely need a SP and a 1B/RF/DH. I hope Reyes' injury doesn't land him on the 60-day.

Cherny, if you read this just call Colorado already, and then let us know what they want for Gray and Cron or Marquez and Cron. We'll let you know if you should pull the trigger.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The Indians 4th and 5th starters (Allen, McKenzie, and Hentges) have combined for a 8.52 ERA in the 13 games they've started. Another game was started by Maton with Hentges coming in with one out in the second inning. The Indians won that one. Counting that game, the Indians are 5-9 in games started by their 4th and 5th starters and 19-10 in games started by Bieber, Plesac, and Civale.

The Indians do not have the offense to come back and win very often when their starter puts them in an early 3-4 run hole. When one of their Big Three doesn't start they have a winning percentage of .357 which would be second worst in the A.L. Obviously a 19-10 winning percentage makes them easily the best team in the league. The Indians are either the best team in the league or the second worst depending on who is starting.

So I'd say the key to the season is finding a couple of starters who can give the Tribe a 50/50 chance of winning. If the Indians were 7-7 instead of 5-9 in games started by their last two starters they would be in first place with the best record in the A.L. except for Boston. This season may come down to whether Mejia, Hentges, or Quantrill can consistently throw 5-6 innings while holding the opponent to three runs, or if we can rehabilitate Allen or McKenzie. Five candidates for two spots.

Right now the difference between the White Sox and Indians is the Sox were willing to gamble $3 million on Carlos Rodon. The Sox are 5-2 in games started by Rodon. One loss was by a score of 2-1. His ERA is 1.27 and he has 62 K's in 43 innings. If he keeps this up he'll have one of the best seasons of all time by a starting pitcher. He's an UFA after this season and is making himself a lot of money at age 28. The Sox were smart to bet $3 million on him. Maybe the Indians would have if they had the budget.

 

[sportscoach]

The Indians 4th and 5th starters (Allen, McKenzie, and Hentges) have combined for a 8.52 ERA in the 13 games they've started. Another game was started by Maton with Hentges coming in with one out in the second inning. The Indians won that one. Counting that game, the Indians are 5-9 in games started by their 4th and 5th starters and 19-10 in games started by Bieber, Plesac, and Civale.

The Indians do not have the offense to come back and win very often when their starter puts them in an early 3-4 run hole. When one of their Big Three doesn't start they have a winning percentage of .357 which would be second worst in the A.L. Obviously a 19-10 winning percentage makes them easily the best team in the league. The Indians are either the best team in the league or the second worst depending on who is starting.

So I'd say the key to the season is finding a couple of starters who can give the Tribe a 50/50 chance of winning. If the Indians were 7-7 instead of 5-9 in games started by their last two starters they would be in first place with the best record in the A.L. except for Boston. This season may come down to whether Mejia, Hentges, or Quantrill can consistently throw 5-6 innings while holding the opponent to three runs, or if we can rehabilitate Allen or McKenzie. Five candidates for two spots.

Right now the difference between the White Sox and Indians is the Sox were willing to gamble $3 million on Carlos Rodon. The Sox are 5-2 in games started by Rodon. One loss was by a score of 2-1. His ERA is 1.27 and he has 62 K's in 43 innings. If he keeps this up he'll have one of the best seasons of all time by a starting pitcher. He's an UFA after this season and is making himself a lot of money at age 28. The Sox were smart to bet $3 million on him. Maybe the Indians would have if they had the budget.

We don't have to get two starters just one veteran with MLB experience honestly... I think we will find someone from the AA/AAA group to step up but we need someone else in there to help stabilize the 4th spot.

 

[Derek]

I wish the team would stop trying to use traditional starters in the 4/5 spots when it’s abundantly clear we just don’t have the horses for that this year.

 

[sportscoach]

I wish the team would stop trying to use traditional starters in the 4/5 spots when it’s abundantly clear we just don’t have the horses for that this year.

I'm not against having two openers and two followers honestly.. but I don't think I would like that if we make the playoffs. I'd like a 4th starter eventually

 

[DJTJ]

I'm not against having two openers and two followers honestly.. but I don't think I would like that if we make the playoffs. I'd like a 4th starter eventually

I’d pray in a playoff series that we’d never see anyone outside of Bieber, Civale, and Plesac touch a ball in the first.

 

[sportscoach]

I’d pray in a playoff series that we’d never see anyone outside of Bieber, Civale, and Plesac touch a ball in the first.

But you cannot bet on that one... In a 7 game series you may see a 4th starter to give guys closer to the 5 day rest... I'd rather have a veteran but who knows, maybe a guy like Morgan can step up and be that 4th, but on paper getting a veteran SP soon would be nice...

 

[MadThinker88]

I'm not against having two openers and two followers honestly.. but I don't think I would like that if we make the playoffs. I'd like a 4th starter eventually

I don't think we will find that this season in large part due to the inning limits on guys that were barely or not playing competitively last season. Many have suggested that TMac has a limit of @ 125 IP this year. Well what is the limit for Moss/ Morgan/ Logan S Allen/ Hentges/ JC Mejia/ Cal Q??
My best guess is its in the same neighborhood (@120 to 130 IP).

The opener/ follower route might become the route followed out of necessity.
The key is not having those games be back to back (in case of bad turn).

As for playoffs, I feel it would help. The main guys (Beiber/ Plesac/ Civale) would be getting ALL the starts but going shorter stints (only 5 or 6 IP).
Tribe could have a group of 4 bridge guys to give 2 innings if needed before using the main bullpen pieces (Shaw/ James K/ Clase)

 

[DJTJ]

But you cannot bet on that one... In a 7 game series you may see a 4th starter to give guys closer to the 5 day rest... I'd rather have a veteran but who knows, maybe a guy like Morgan can step up and be that 4th, but on paper getting a veteran SP soon would be nice...

Tito’s track record says otherwise. In 2016, the only pitcher to start outside of Bauer, Tomlin, and Kluber was Ryan Merritt, who only pitched because Bauer was hurt.

In the WS, 3 starters. You don’t go 4 deep in the playoffs under any circumstance outside of injury.

 

[Derek]

Tito’s track record says otherwise. In 2016, the only pitcher to start outside of Bauer, Tomlin, and Kluber was Ryan Merritt, who only pitched because Bauer was hurt.

In the WS, 3 starters. You don’t go 4 deep in the playoffs under any circumstance outside of injury.

2016 was out of necessity.

You need to have a 4-man rotation in the playoffs (the 4th can even be a bullpen day).