Sports Coach ... Thought this deserves a thread on its own so that it doesn't get lost. I am willing to be patient but in trying to justify what BHC is saying, I like to look at the evidence (being a math/stat/science guy -- create a hypothesis but back it up with numbers)
SC Said --
@BimboColesHair has said it a few times they are being conservative with the pitching the first part of the year...
When it comes to the starters, don't worry about them until the second part of the year. Take their current numbers with a grain of salt since they weren't fully stretched in spring and will go through a low period cause of getting built up (kind of normal to have a dead arm period in spring, which they will deal with a bit in the season). We are so down on the starters right now and in my mind you are being impatient idiots (don't mean any offense, just being candid) because of the fact, they held them back a bit and you aren't going to get their best production if they are behind ya know?
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In this, there are two things to consider ....
1) Yes pitchers usually have a schedule that starts in Jan/Feb before they report to spring training to build back their arm strength. And, there is sometimes an issue with cold weather starts where a starter doesn't want to go 100% too early or too fast. However, on average velocity, there is usually .5 mph difference from April to July for the league.
This year is different in that starters did not know when to ramp up. They almost went from thinking the season would start in May to starting just a week late -- if they players took revenge on owners delaying the start for a week or two to press the players (with service time issues and a non-full season of games) to the players delaying it further to make the owners hurt in the TV pocketbook. Thus, they reported in late March vs mid February. So, I can see the slow ramp up for a month ... yet the differences like I said in Bieber should start to get back to normal starting now (as it is a month+ into the season now).
2) I can understand the Guardians point-of-view of rather be 1-2 mph slower and reduce the risk of needing TJ surgery as the health of the player is key importance. And, it is not just Bieber, but all our starters and key relievers are down in velocity except for McK....And, when you compare year to year velocity, our pitchers lead the league in this issue. Some of it maybe cold ... but that would affect 1/3 of the teams who all play in cold weather including Pitt, Det, Chi, etc... and for some this is the case but not to the extent as Cleveland ...
So for right now on 5/17 .... out of 244 pitchers tracked, our pitchers rank on FB velocity change 2021 to 2022
59. McK +.2 mph
142. Clase -.6 mph
227. Civale -1.7 mph
231. Plesac -1.8 mph
241. Quant -2.6 mph
242. Shaw -2.7 mph
243. Bieber -2.8 mph
Leader is
244. Rassmuesen -3.5 mph
So, we may be impatient ... but over next few weeks, these #s should start to slowly improve (as I pointed out the other day with Bieber's last start) but the reaction is due to justified #s and concerns and these are the facts that if we are just being too impatient should improve in next few weeks and revert to somewhat normal (yet will always be low as April/May #s do not go away in averages).
SC Said --
@BimboColesHair has said it a few times they are being conservative with the pitching the first part of the year...
When it comes to the starters, don't worry about them until the second part of the year. Take their current numbers with a grain of salt since they weren't fully stretched in spring and will go through a low period cause of getting built up (kind of normal to have a dead arm period in spring, which they will deal with a bit in the season). We are so down on the starters right now and in my mind you are being impatient idiots (don't mean any offense, just being candid) because of the fact, they held them back a bit and you aren't going to get their best production if they are behind ya know?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this, there are two things to consider ....
1) Yes pitchers usually have a schedule that starts in Jan/Feb before they report to spring training to build back their arm strength. And, there is sometimes an issue with cold weather starts where a starter doesn't want to go 100% too early or too fast. However, on average velocity, there is usually .5 mph difference from April to July for the league.
Fastball Velocities Are Already Up
In the early going, pitchers are throwing hard.
blogs.fangraphs.com
This year is different in that starters did not know when to ramp up. They almost went from thinking the season would start in May to starting just a week late -- if they players took revenge on owners delaying the start for a week or two to press the players (with service time issues and a non-full season of games) to the players delaying it further to make the owners hurt in the TV pocketbook. Thus, they reported in late March vs mid February. So, I can see the slow ramp up for a month ... yet the differences like I said in Bieber should start to get back to normal starting now (as it is a month+ into the season now).
2) I can understand the Guardians point-of-view of rather be 1-2 mph slower and reduce the risk of needing TJ surgery as the health of the player is key importance. And, it is not just Bieber, but all our starters and key relievers are down in velocity except for McK....And, when you compare year to year velocity, our pitchers lead the league in this issue. Some of it maybe cold ... but that would affect 1/3 of the teams who all play in cold weather including Pitt, Det, Chi, etc... and for some this is the case but not to the extent as Cleveland ...
So for right now on 5/17 .... out of 244 pitchers tracked, our pitchers rank on FB velocity change 2021 to 2022
59. McK +.2 mph
142. Clase -.6 mph
227. Civale -1.7 mph
231. Plesac -1.8 mph
241. Quant -2.6 mph
242. Shaw -2.7 mph
243. Bieber -2.8 mph
Leader is
244. Rassmuesen -3.5 mph
So, we may be impatient ... but over next few weeks, these #s should start to slowly improve (as I pointed out the other day with Bieber's last start) but the reaction is due to justified #s and concerns and these are the facts that if we are just being too impatient should improve in next few weeks and revert to somewhat normal (yet will always be low as April/May #s do not go away in averages).