Cleveland Browns 2020 Regular Season: What a Ride!

[col63onel]

The averages for 4th down conversions:

Teams for the season averaged about 11.3 for 20.5 for 55.2% on 4th downs.

On offense, Browns went 8 for 24. That put them 11th in attempts, t23 in conversions and 30th in percentage.

On defense, Browns allowed 22 of 27. We had the 3rd most attempts against us, the most successful conversions, and the second worst percentage. This includes the fake FG pass to kick vs the Giants, otherwise we'd have the worst percentage, too.

Some more context: the Vikings allowed the second most conversions at 17. The difference between the Browns and Vikings (5) is the same difference as the Vikings (2nd most) and the Ravens/Chargers, who finished tied for 13th!

Even more context: As you might expect, teams who had more attempts against them tended to have their percentages near the league average (as trials go up, the observed value trends towards the mean). Of the teams who finished in the top half of most attempts against, only 3 teams were worse than 60% against, the Vikes at 70.8% and the Cards at 66.7%.

Couple that with how bad we were on offense on 4th down, and that's quite a handicap. Our opponents had 14 more conversions. They basically is an extra set of downs PER GAME deficit we had.

 

[Cement]

The averages for 4th down conversions:

Teams for the season averaged about 11.3 for 20.5 for 55.2% on 4th downs.

On offense, Browns went 8 for 24. That put them 11th in attempts, t23 in conversions and 30th in percentage.

On defense, Browns allowed 22 of 27. We had the 3rd most attempts against us, the most successful conversions, and the second worst percentage. This includes the fake FG pass to kick vs the Giants, otherwise we'd have the worst percentage, too.

Some more context: the Vikings allowed the second most conversions at 17. The difference between the Browns and Vikings (5) is the same difference as the Vikings (2nd most) and the Ravens/Chargers, who finished tied for 13th!

Even more context: As you might expect, teams who had more attempts against them tended to have their percentages near the league average (as trials go up, the observed value trends towards the mean). Of the teams who finished in the top half of most attempts against, only 3 teams were worse than 60% against, the Vikes at 70.8% and the Cards at 66.7%.

Couple that with how bad we were on offense on 4th down, and that's quite a handicap. Our opponents had 14 more conversions. They basically is an extra set of downs PER GAME deficit we had.

This just reinforces that we desperately need an influx of playmakers and talent on defense.

 

[Kbiz]

It still feels like we have enough average guys on defense that they shouldn't be performing at such a historically bad level. Woods should shoulder some blame here. If he doesn't get this defense turned around fast next year, his seat will get hot.

 

[FrontPageNews]

It still feels like we have enough average guys on defense that they shouldn't be performing at such a historically bad level. Woods should shoulder some blame here. If he doesn't get this defense turned around fast next year, his seat will get hot.

We have enough average guys when fully healthy. Which we haven’t been all year. But yeah still you can’t have a historically bad 3rd and 4th down d and not be on the hot seat.

 

[FrontPageNews]

Teams are 22/27 on 4th down against us. 81.5%. How the hell do teams not just go for it every shot

 

[Marcus]

Man... if this team had just closed out the games they SHOULD have won (Raiders, Jets, and the second game against the Ravens) they'd have won the division going away and locked up the #2 seed.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda, I know. This is a young team that isn't used to success, and they'll learn how to close out those kinds of games. But the future is bright for this team. Really, really excited to see what this team looks like with a rebuilt defense and a full offseason with the coaches and players to implement and improve upon systems.

 

[col63onel]

Man... if this team had just closed out the games they SHOULD have won (Raiders, Jets, and the second game against the Ravens) they'd have won the division going away and locked up the #2 seed.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda, I know. This is a young team that isn't used to success, and they'll learn how to close out those kinds of games. But the future is bright for this team. Really, really excited to see what this team looks like with a rebuilt defense and a full offseason with the coaches and players to implement and improve upon systems.

No team wins EVERY close game. We had our share of close wins. We outperformed out pythag % by quite a bit, although I'd argue a good chunk of that is not scoring in garbage time when we got blow out vs Pit and Balt and allowing garbage time points in about 4-5 games.

Only game that irks me is the Jets because we lost half our offense with no time to adjust our gameplan.

 

[Marcus]

No team wins EVERY close game. We had our share of close wins. We outperformed out pythag % by quite a bit, although I'd argue a good chunk of that is not scoring in garbage time when we got blow out vs Pit and Balt and allowing garbage time points in about 4-5 games.

Only game that irks me is the Jets because we lost half our offense with no time to adjust our gameplan.

Any given Sunday, I know. Any team is capable of beating any other team, and hindsight is a beautiful thing, but games don't occur in a vacuum. The Jets game was a fluke, and I imagine if they would have played them yesterday instead of Pittsburgh they'd have beaten them handily.

That being said, those are examples of three games that moving forward, I think this team will definitely close out with different results.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Man... if this team had just closed out the games they SHOULD have won (Raiders, Jets, and the second game against the Ravens) they'd have won the division going away and locked up the #2 seed.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda, I know. This is a young team that isn't used to success, and they'll learn how to close out those kinds of games. But the future is bright for this team. Really, really excited to see what this team looks like with a rebuilt defense and a full offseason with the coaches and players to implement and improve upon systems.

I think a function of it is the fact the browns have almost 0 experience in the playoffs versus the other 6 teams in the AFC that all have pretty experienced rosters, but for a team that could have very easily been playing for the division yesterday they are getting absolutely 0 respect.

 

[Marcus]

I think a function of it is the fact the browns have almost 0 experience in the playoffs versus the other 6 teams in the AFC that all have pretty experienced rosters, but for a team that could have very easily been playing for the division yesterday they are getting absolutely 0 respect.

Recency bias - lost to the 1-13 Jets last week, barely beat the Steelers playing a lot of backups yesterday, and of course the fact that they've been one of the worst franchises in North American sports for two decades, including an 0-16 season just three years ago.

The Browns will get there, and I honestly think Sunday night is going to be closer than some of these pundits think.

 

[Huber.]

Any black Monday victims you have you eyes on to replace Joe Woods if he's canned?

 

[Cement]

Any black Monday victims you have you eyes on to replace Joe Woods if he's canned?

Romeo Crennell.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Any black Monday victims you have you eyes on to replace Joe Woods if he's canned?

I'd bet pretty heavily against Woods getting fired.

But in the world where we needed a new DC, Dan Quinn and Matt Patricia would have to be the top two names. Quinn's scheme would be more similar to ours, but I think Patritica is a better DC.

 

[NorthCoastBias]

Uh, fuck.

 

[caf]

Homer pick, but Marcus Freeman will be a college DC that will get a lot of looks soon.