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Cleveland Browns Quarterback Position

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Plenty of guys are even given a few weeks to wait and still prove to be not at all ready.

Quarterbacks since 2003, drafted #52 or higher, who started 9+ games as a rookie:

Week 1 starters in italics

Winners (10)

  • Jameis Winston - probably?
  • Marcus Mariota - probably?
  • Derek Carr
  • Andrew Luck
  • Andy Dalton - Meh
  • Cam Newton
  • Matt Stafford - 3rd rate starter
  • Matt Ryan
  • Joe Flacco -3rd rate starter
  • Ben Roethlisberger
Questionable (4)
  • Carson Wentz - jury out
  • Teddy Bridgewater - Injured
  • Ryan Tannehill - mediocre at best?
  • Sam Bradford - Borderline starter
Losers (12)
  • Blake Bortles - fraud
  • Geno Smith - backup material
  • EJ Manuel - backup material
  • Robert Griffin III - Unemployed
  • Brandon Weeden - 3rd string garbage
  • Blaine Gabbert - nope
  • Christian Ponder - nope
  • Jimmy Claussen - gone
  • Josh Freeman - out of the league
  • Mark Sanchez - Garbage
  • Vince Young - Out of the league
  • Matt Leinart - Out of the league
Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2003 Who Were Held Back as Rookies:

Winners (3)
  • Aaron Rodgers (0 rookie starts)
  • Eli Manning (7 rookie starts)
  • Philip Rivers (0 rookie starts)

Questionable (3)

  • Alex Smith (7 rookie starts, 136 career starts)
  • Jay Cutler (6 rookie starts, 139 career starts)
  • Jared Goff (7 rookie starts)
  • Paxton Lynch (2 rookie starts)
Losers (11)
  • Johnny Manziel (2 rookie starts, 8 career starts, out of the league)
  • Jake Locker (0 rookie starts, 23 career starts, retired due to injuries)
  • Colin Kaepernick (0 rookie starts, 58 career starts, it's complicated)
  • Tim Tebow (3 rookie starts, 16 career starts, out of the league)
  • JaMarcus Russell (1 rookie start, 25 career starts, out of the league)
  • Brady Quinn (0 rookie starts, 20 career starts, out of the league)
  • Kevin Kolb (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
  • Drew Stanton (0 rookie starts, 14 career starts)
  • Kellen Clemens (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
  • Jason Campbell (7 rookie starts, 79 career starts)
  • JP Losman (0 rookie starts, 33 career starts)
Guys Who Are Still Being Held Back
  • Christian Hackenburg (has been unable to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, and Bryce Petty)
Guys Who Never Made It (<8 career starts)
  • Pat White
  • John Beck

What we see here is that since 2006 there isn't been a single successful quarterback who was held back significantly during his rookie year. You have to go back over 10 years to find an instance of this turning out well for a high pick. This strongly suggests that quarterbacks who aren't deemed ready as rookies are highly unlikely to ever break through. I'll note that the 3 who DID achieve this all did so behind Hall of Fame level quarterbacks (Favre, Brees, Warner), and the vast majority of the failures had no such high level quarterback.

There's also this: Even among quarterbacks who start a significant number of games as a rookie, there are more failures than successes. We will never know if starting as rookies "before they were ready" stopped them from realizing their potential.

Other notes: DeShone Kizer is only 21. The only 2nd rounders to start in Week 1 among the players I looked at were Andy Dalton and Derek Carr who were both 23 years old when drafted. Winston and Mariota were 21 and have found early success as immediate starters, but they were #1 and #2 overall picks. There haven't been many 21 year old quarterbacks. Rodgers and Alex Smith were 21 year olds who were not thrust immediately into the starting job and ended up alright. Gabbert and Freeman were made starters as rookies, and it turned out badly for them. Jared Goff will be an interesting case.

I sincerely hope to see Kizer by Week 5, ideally not earlier than week 3.
Did not see Garippolo in this..
 

Plenty of guys are even given a few weeks to wait and still prove to be not at all ready.

Quarterbacks since 2003, drafted #52 or higher, who started 9+ games as a rookie:

Week 1 starters in italics

Winners (10)

  • Jameis Winston - probably?
  • Marcus Mariota - probably?
  • Derek Carr
  • Andrew Luck
  • Andy Dalton - Meh
  • Cam Newton
  • Matt Stafford - 3rd rate starter
  • Matt Ryan
  • Joe Flacco -3rd rate starter
  • Ben Roethlisberger
Questionable (4)
  • Carson Wentz - jury out
  • Teddy Bridgewater - Injured
  • Ryan Tannehill - mediocre at best?
  • Sam Bradford - Borderline starter
Losers (12)
  • Blake Bortles - fraud
  • Geno Smith - backup material
  • EJ Manuel - backup material
  • Robert Griffin III - Unemployed
  • Brandon Weeden - 3rd string garbage
  • Blaine Gabbert - nope
  • Christian Ponder - nope
  • Jimmy Claussen - gone
  • Josh Freeman - out of the league
  • Mark Sanchez - Garbage
  • Vince Young - Out of the league
  • Matt Leinart - Out of the league
Quarterbacks Drafted Since 2003 Who Were Held Back as Rookies:

Winners (3)
  • Aaron Rodgers (0 rookie starts)
  • Eli Manning (7 rookie starts)
  • Philip Rivers (0 rookie starts)

Questionable (3)

  • Alex Smith (7 rookie starts, 136 career starts)
  • Jay Cutler (6 rookie starts, 139 career starts)
  • Jared Goff (7 rookie starts)
  • Paxton Lynch (2 rookie starts)
Losers (11)
  • Johnny Manziel (2 rookie starts, 8 career starts, out of the league)
  • Jake Locker (0 rookie starts, 23 career starts, retired due to injuries)
  • Colin Kaepernick (0 rookie starts, 58 career starts, it's complicated)
  • Tim Tebow (3 rookie starts, 16 career starts, out of the league)
  • JaMarcus Russell (1 rookie start, 25 career starts, out of the league)
  • Brady Quinn (0 rookie starts, 20 career starts, out of the league)
  • Kevin Kolb (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
  • Drew Stanton (0 rookie starts, 14 career starts)
  • Kellen Clemens (0 rookie starts, 21 career starts)
  • Jason Campbell (7 rookie starts, 79 career starts)
  • JP Losman (0 rookie starts, 33 career starts)
Guys Who Are Still Being Held Back
  • Christian Hackenburg (has been unable to beat out Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, and Bryce Petty)
Guys Who Never Made It (<8 career starts)
  • Pat White
  • John Beck

What we see here is that since 2006 there isn't been a single successful quarterback who was held back significantly during his rookie year. You have to go back over 10 years to find an instance of this turning out well for a high pick. This strongly suggests that quarterbacks who aren't deemed ready as rookies are highly unlikely to ever break through. I'll note that the 3 who DID achieve this all did so behind Hall of Fame level quarterbacks (Favre, Brees, Warner), and the vast majority of the failures had no such high level quarterback.

There's also this: Even among quarterbacks who start a significant number of games as a rookie, there are more failures than successes. We will never know if starting as rookies "before they were ready" stopped them from realizing their potential.

Other notes: DeShone Kizer is only 21. The only 2nd rounders to start in Week 1 among the players I looked at were Andy Dalton and Derek Carr who were both 23 years old when drafted. Winston and Mariota were 21 and have found early success as immediate starters, but they were #1 and #2 overall picks. There haven't been many 21 year old quarterbacks. Rodgers and Alex Smith were 21 year olds who were not thrust immediately into the starting job and ended up alright. Gabbert and Freeman were made starters as rookies, and it turned out badly for them. Jared Goff will be an interesting case.

I sincerely hope to see Kizer by Week 5, ideally not earlier than week 3.

I can't tell if you agree with what I said or not, or if you're just adding to the discussion, because it seems you touch on both sides of the coin. But I'm fine with Kizer sitting a couple weeks; no more than that. Do I think starting him from day 1 is somehow going to hinder him if he's actually good? No, but he is very young. I'm not going to act like waiting a couple weeks is somehow the difference between him being successful and not being successful. He will probably struggle for a bit regardless, but by the end of the year you will see signs if he can be the future or not.

Wasting our time with Osweiler is a terrible idea, sooner we jettison him the better.
 
I can't tell if you agree with what I said or not, or if you're just adding to the discussion, because it seems you touch on both sides of the coin. But I'm fine with Kizer sitting a couple weeks; no more than that. Do I think starting him from day 1 is somehow going to hinder him if he's actually good? No, but he is very young. I'm not going to act like waiting a couple weeks is somehow the difference between him being successful and not being successful. He will probably struggle for a bit regardless, but by the end of the year you will see signs if he can be the future or not.

Wasting our time with Osweiler is a terrible idea, sooner we jettison him the better.
To be honest my gut reaction is to disagree with you, but then I went down a 90 minute rabbit hole of figuring out just what happened to these guys. And the result was only very special quarterbacks who were held back significantly as rookies ended up being worth a damn.

Now the big question to me is, how many of the successful quarterbacks who started as rookies were truly good as rookies? It is obvious that Browns fans are impatient with quarterbacks, possibly with good cause since nearly all of the ones we've had have been terrible. But between the fan base's itchy trigger finger, and the front office having the draft capital to invest in a new rookie next year, and the general lack of weapons on offense, Kizer has very little margin for error.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk
 
To be honest my gut reaction is to disagree with you, but then I went down a 90 minute rabbit hole of figuring out just what happened to these guys. And the result was only very special quarterbacks who were held back significantly as rookies ended up being worth a damn.

Now the big question to me is, how many of the successful quarterbacks who started as rookies were truly good as rookies? It is obvious that Browns fans are impatient with quarterbacks, possibly with good cause since nearly all of the ones we've had have been terrible. But between the fan base's itchy trigger finger, and the front office having the draft capital to invest in a new rookie next year, and the general lack of weapons on offense, Kizer has very little margin for error.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G930A using Tapatalk

Well, I'm glad you had the willpower to do the actual research because I didn't. :chuckle: But I went over it in my head quickly and it just seems like this whole "The quarterback must sit until we have a Pro Bowl line, weapons, and defense!" logic is flawed. Let the guy get in and take his lumps.

You do bring up another good point about how good were these guys in their first year anyway, and the truth is most were likely inconsistent and not that good. I do think you can see things that will tell you if Kizer can be the guy moving forward though, as long as he gets ample playing time. This is why I prefer he gets all 16 games, but if we have to sit him for one or two, fine...
 
You can watch all the preseason football you want, audibles aren't going to be a big part of anyone's game plan.

Tagging a rookie QB for not calling them during the preseason is just a terrible take.

Additionally, using the fact that Osweiler "knows a lot more of the playbook" and yet still overthrows his receivers routinely just goes to show that Osweiler sucks that much more.

I am glad that after four years in the league, Osweiler knows how to call an audible. He should start polishing his trophy case.

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So the only reasoning for people to say Kizer needs to sit is that he tripped over an O-Lineman in practice and "you can just see it"?

Yeah, not buying it. He was making line calls, telling his RB who to pickup in blitz pickup. He may not have it all down 100% but jesus, he is worlds more talented than Brock.

The biggest thing for a rookie QB to have to be successful is a good O-Line, particularly up the middle. Kizer would have that. There is no basis for Kizer to sit other than antiquated thinking about not playing a rookie. As if he would somehow break if he makes a mistake.
 
Additionally, using the fact that Osweiler "knows a lot more of the playbook" and yet still overthrows his receivers routinely just goes to show that Osweiler sucks that much more.

I am glad that after four years in the league, Osweiler knows how to call an audible. He should start polishing his trophy case.

You're definitely correct, after four years in the league Osweiler should obviously have more freedom to do that and would in a regular season game scenario.

But what annoys me is the fact that he's just brazenly lying about "seeing it on the game film" as he tries to continue this jerk off discussion about wanting him to start.

It's not a productive conversation.
 
So the only reasoning for people to say Kizer needs to sit is that he tripped over an O-Lineman in practice and "you can just see it"?

Yeah, not buying it. He was making line calls, telling his RB who to pickup in blitz pickup. He may not have it all down 100% but jesus, he is worlds more talented than Brock.

The biggest thing for a rookie QB to have to be successful is a good O-Line, particularly up the middle. Kizer would have that. There is no basis for Kizer to sit other than antiquated thinking about not playing a rookie. As if he would somehow break if he makes a mistake.

3 new starters on this OL. Might not be a terrible idea to give them a few games to gel. I suspect there will be some extra blown/missed assignments until those guys learn how to play together.

I'm not in favor of sitting Kizer on principle just because he's a rookie. But if it is close, I'd like to get that OL warmed up first.
 
With Bitonio already going down and him starting the season in jeopardy, could be another fun year.
 
http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/...-deshone-kizer-make-case-for-starting-qb-jobs

Cleveland Browns reporter Pat McManamon on Kizer:

Brock Osweiler was announced as the starter against the Saints, Cody Kessler called it part of the process. Kizer bristled, saying he's a competitor and wants to play. But he never second-guessed his coach or questioned the decision. He simply went out and played better.

What's the biggest concern with your rookie QB at this point?

The leap from the college spread system that is focused on pace and calling plays quickly to an NFL game that requires pre- and post-snap reads and protections and hot reads and all the other things that a quarterback has to decide in seconds is not easy. Jackson said there are "hidden" things Kizer must improve. The first is calling the play in the huddle, something he never did at Notre Dame and is learning in Cleveland. The second is the complex progressions and reads that the average fan or media member does not see. That growth might happen in practice but it might best happen in games.

Barring injury, when do you think your rookie QB will become the starter?
The safe guess is Kizer starts after the trip to London and the bye week, on Nov. 12 in Detroit. The bold guess is the season opener because neither Osweiler nor Kessler has seized the opportunity to win the starting job. But if Kizer keeps improving, it might be impossible to keep him off the field. That being said, he has yet to face a first-team defense, so the best situation for when he starts is Week 5. That would allow him to play his first game against the Jets, a game at home that should be winnable.

What is the head coach saying about your rookie QB this week?

That it's training camp and he's still learning. Quarterbacks coach David Lee, though, was more pointed; he flat-out said Kizer is not ready, that more time is needed on fundamentals, reads, progressions and calling plays. Jackson's actions, though, made a slightly different statement as he gave Kizer more reps with the starters. Where Kizer takes himself from this point is basically up to him. The opportunity to win the job is there, though the climb is uphill.
 
Yep. Can't really rely on a guy like that.
 
Yeah he and tretter are very unreliable. I doubt we'll see more than 5 games with the full oline healthy.

We may have him sitting out game 2 as a just in case type of scenario. At least his backup is Greco who is hopefully 100% and we all know actually should be a strong backup for us this season with his experience. They were saying he wasn't supposed to start the season on the PUP list so that is a good sign for us we have our backup at least.
 
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