I think we need either Bynum or Andy on the floor for 85% of the games to make the playoffs. Having both healthy would be a nice bonus.
Maybe need is too strong a word. I love our chances if we have Bynum or Andy healthy for 85% of the games. I still think we can get in to the playoffs in the weak Eastern conference with less. It will just be more of an uphill battle.
It's really hard to predict one way or another. How far do the young guys develop? How much do they improve on defense?
If they can't improve much on defense, hard to see them making the playoffs without Bynum and Andy healthy. But with Waiters working, Kyrie working, Tristan seriously putting a lot of effort into playing right handed (and having something great to show for it), Jack on the bench, Clark and others committed on D, I think there is a pretty high level of potential.
But that's what it is: potential. I'd like to see another add and the Orton reference a couple of posts above wouldn't be a bad idea.
Even so, we can be the third best team in our division. I automatically put Indy and Chicago ahead. But who else? I'm not convinced that Milwaukee or Detroit have the personnel to top out ahead of us if our guys can commit on D and even become average as a team. I think they can do that under Brown.
So who else in the Eastern Conference do we compete against? Miami is clearly better, so that's three definitely ahead of us.
Who else? Probably Brooklyn, but I'm less certain. New York should be, but they may have dropped down a bit. Not sure Atlanta is any better. Charlotte should still be bad. Orlando will be better, but they still have a ways to go. I believe we are farther along than the Wizards.
So we have a pretty wide range of possibilities from the 4th seed all the way out of the playoffs entirely. How will these guys mesh on defense? How healthy will they be? It looks like the team as a whole has a very high offensive ceiling, so how far will they reach?
Personally, I think a fairly healthy Bynum and Varejao coupled with a fairly healthy Irving could get us to 50+ wins. The talent is there, but is the development and the health? We need to let them play the games to find out.