He needs to continue to improve his shot selection, shooting more threes and fewer long twos (this improved as the year went on, but it needs to go even further) and he needs to figure out how to draw free throws at a much higher rate than he did as a rookie. Considering he lived at the line in college, I’m optimistic he can make gains there as well.
If both of those things happen and his perimeter shooting is actually this good, he’ll have a 15 year career even if he never improves a lick as a passer or defender.
How big of an improvement he can make defensively will ultimately determine if he can remain a starter on a good team or if he’ll end up having to go to the bench as a third guard. He just can’t be a starter if he’s horrific defensively like he was last year. He doesn’t have to ever be great or even good, but there’s a wide gap between below average and bottom of the league bad.
Couple of things.
1. IIRC, wasn't Sooper Genius Larry Drew ordering Sexton to take long twos rather than stepping back for threes? I seem to recall hearing that some months back. If so, then I can't fault Sexton for the long twos he was taking, especially earlier in the season.
Imagine -- you're a 19-year-old kid, you're in your first professional year, and you're trying to make your coach happy. If he tells you to shoot long twos or else ride the bench, then you're probably not going to respond with, "I respectfully disagree, as cutting-edge analytics show that such shots are sub-optimal. Taking such shots will hurt both my Player Efficiency Rating and the team's overall scoring efficiency." Nope, you're going to say "yes sir" and shoot long twos.
2. I give the entire team a pass on defense for last season. For the most part, the coaching staff was like, "fuck it, just go out there and play." There was no semblance of a defense being run. To the extent there was, it was installed by Sooper Dooper Genius Mike Longabardi.
Both points lead to the same place: I suspect a lot of Sexton's shortcomings last year resulted from piss-poor coaching and schemes. No, I'm not saying that under a different coaching staff, Sexton will turn into Gary Payton. I am saying -- let's see how he fares under a real coaching staff before we draw too many conclusions about his abilities. A year from now, I think we may all be talking about how much improvement Sexton has shown, and it will simply be the result of better coaching and schemes.