People wonder how the Cavs would have done without the injuries. I went through the season game-by-game and compiled the W-L record based on what key players were available.
Garland/Mobley/Allen: 7-4 (projects to 52.2 wins over 82 games)
Garland/Mobley/Allen/Markkanen 19-10 (projects to 53.7 wins)
Mobley/Mark/Allen: 3-4
Garland/Mobley: 1-2
Garland only: 0-2
Garland/Allen/Mark: 2-2
Garland/Mark: 2-5
Mark/Mobley: 0-2
Mobley/Allen: 4-1
Garland/Mark/Mobley: 6-6
The Cavs' record when missing these players:
Garland 7-7
Allen 9-17
Mobley 4-9
Markkanen 12-9
Bottom line:
When all three of the Cavs' "core" players (Garland, Allen, Mobley) played the Cavs were 26-14, which projects to 53.3 wins. The Heat won the Eastern Conference with 53 wins.
The Cavs were 12-9 without Markkanen in the lineup, a winning percentage of 57%. With him they were 32-29 (52.5%), so it doesn't look like Markkanen contributed much to winning. He did have some impressive games, but they had a better winning percentage with him out of the lineup.
Allen and Mobley were the keys to winning. Without Allen the Cavs were 9-17, which means they were 35-21 with him in the lineup, which projects to 51 wins. With Mobley in the lineup they were 40-29 which projects to 47.5 wins. When they both played the Cavs were 33-19, which projects to 53 wins.
In games where Garland and Markkanen played without Mobley and Allen the team was 2-5.
Obviously this analysis isn't perfect because there were some throwaway games like the two huge wins over Milwaukee, one by 45 points when their whole team was down with COVID and the last game where they sat all their starters. But it does give us a pretty good idea of which players were the keys to winning and that appears to be Allen and Mobley.
I was surprised the Cavs were 7-7 when Garland did not play. I thought it would be worse.
When Rubio played the Cavs were 20-14 which projects to 47 wins, just three more than they actually won.