How long should a rebuild realistically take?

[Cavatt]

I keep seeing people on twitter and on here talk about the rebuild as if it has been a failure. Personally, I feel like we are in a better position than year 4 of the Kyrie rebuild because the we have more talent at this point, even if Mobley isn't on Kyrie's level. We don't have the #1 pick in a highly coveted draft the same way, but top to bottom I think the roster is better and the talent level is higher.

Hawks were a year ahead of the Cavs and drafted their franchise player 3 years before us. They made it back to the playoffs in 4 years, which seems to me to be about the fastest rebuild possible. They had not sold the farm to the degree the Cavs had with Lebron strip-mining picks especially 2nds way out.

So, the question is, is this taking too long in year 4? I really don't think it is. We are beginning to see the team fit better and Koby making fit moves instead of just talent ones. The Rubio and Markannen trades increased the talent level on the team IMO.

My issues with the rebuild have amounted more to how Koby has done things at times more than what he has done.

So, what is a fair amount of time to allow for a rebuild when assets are limited and you are coming off losing the best player in the league?

 

[mds]

Well, it took the Browns like 25 years...

 

[Man Called X]

I keep seeing people on twitter and on here talk about the rebuild as if it has been a failure. Personally, I feel like we are in a better position than year 4 of the Kyrie rebuild because the we have more talent at this point, even if Mobley isn't on Kyrie's level. We don't have the #1 pick in a highly coveted draft the same way, but top to bottom I think the roster is better and the talent level is higher.

Hawks were a year ahead of the Cavs and drafted their franchise player 3 years before us. They made it back to the playoffs in 4 years, which seems to me to be about the fastest rebuild possible. They had not sold the farm to the degree the Cavs had with Lebron strip-mining picks especially 2nds way out.

So, the question is, is this taking too long in year 4? I really don't think it is. We are beginning to see the team fit better and Koby making fit moves instead of just talent ones. The Rubio and Markannen trades increased the talent level on the team IMO.

My issues with the rebuild have amounted more to how Koby has done things at times more than what he has done.

So, what is a fair amount of time to allow for a rebuild when assets are limited and you are coming off losing the best player in the league?

I'm not a fan of the teardown rebuild. Always been more then content with being a dreaded treadmill team. Gathering a bunch of young players just leads to a bunch of losses, not necessarily growth and development. Seen it from way too many shitty franchises to think it's the only way to win.

At this point, if you consider Mobley the franchise, you use this season to find his best fit on the floor, and dump whoever doesn't fit. Our biggest problem is once again not using any draft capital on the wing. Until Windler can be healthy for a season, he's a bust as much as that pains me. If he could be fully healthy, I see no reason he couldn't be exactly what we need on the wing to make sense of our lineups.

I'm perfectly fine with dumping everybody but Mobley and starting over again too.

 

[Cassity14]

I don't think there can ever be a set amount of time in the NBA because teams are so dependent on star power.

In the meantime, teams are tasked with making the best of their circumstances until they can get their hands on star players. The Cavs have done fairly well in this regard solely when speaking about draft picks, imo.

Rebuilds are generally sped up by a strong organizational culture (don't have that), great coaching (certainly haven't had that), and the ability to sign quality free agents when the timing is right (won't have that either).

Thus, much like the Browns, we're going to be waiting around for draft picks and classes to start hitting consistently over a period of time.

 

[Cavatt]

I'm not a fan of the teardown rebuild. Always been more then content with being a dreaded treadmill team. Gathering a bunch of young players just leads to a bunch of losses, not necessarily growth and development. Seen it from way too many shitty franchises to think it's the only way to win.

At this point, if you consider Mobley the franchise, you use this season to find his best fit on the floor, and dump whoever doesn't fit. Our biggest problem is once again not using any draft capital on the wing. Until Windler can be healthy for a season, he's a bust as much as that pains me. If he could be fully healthy, I see no reason he couldn't be exactly what we need on the wing to make sense of our lineups.

I'm perfectly fine with dumping everybody but Mobley and starting over again too.

They spent 3 draft picks on wings, 2 on guards, and one on bigs. That's the problem. 1 was utouchable after his rookie year only to be traded for a 2nd that won't convey, the other had his leg broken by a very old coach who worked the young man too hard, the 3rd is our starting SF but he doesn't have ideal size.

They even traded for Cedi before Lebron even left. I don't think they are ignoring the wing, I think they had some serious bad luck on guys who were actually talented.

I agree with you that a larger wing should be the target going forward. The good news is that even though everyone wants a wing, it can be difficult to identify good ones and they show up later in the draft all the time.

 

[KilgoreTrout]

Depends somewhat on luck, I suppose. But also intelligent hires. Milwaukee got lucky with Giannis and they made a smart hire, in Budenholzer.

Our coaching hires have been questionable for years, and we didn’t get as much as we could have for Kyrie, and we also screwed ourselves/had some bad luck. Our rebuild goes a lot faster, if we are building around Doncić than if we are building around Sexton.

 

[LeQuit]

In Cavaliers case,with abysmal management and wasted picks and trades it may take an eternity , unless they draft someone like James again.

 

[Ohioplayer00]

Well, it took the Browns like 25 years...

I think the Browns rebuild was slowed because of the poor QB signing and drafting…..everything else was in place! I dare say that in past years our defenses were light years better than ones we have had in the last 2-3 years.

 

[2 For The Brew]

I don't think there can ever be a set amount of time in the NBA because teams are so dependent on star power.

In the meantime, teams are tasked with making the best of their circumstances until they can get their hands on star players. The Cavs have done fairly well in this regard solely when speaking about draft picks, imo.

Rebuilds are generally sped up by a strong organizational culture (don't have that), great coaching (certainly haven't had that), and the ability to sign quality free agents when the timing is right (won't have that either).

Thus, much like the Browns, we're going to be waiting around for draft picks and classes to start hitting consistently over a period of time.

There’s so much randomness in the draft. How long would the Cavaliers rebuild have take; if we didn’t get LeBron for example? There is too much variability in talent available to apply a time schedule to an achievement level.

 

[AllforOne]

Maybe the real question is -- how many teams have lost a superstar player and ever returned to a championship level? (Other than the Lakers and Celtics, the NBA's two iconic franchises.)

Cavs lose LeBron (twice) ... we know what happened both times.

Miami lost LeBron (and Bosh) (and Wade) ... they've reloaded to some degree thanks to free agency, but unless there are any more bubble playoffs on the horizon, they're probably not returning to the mountaintop.

Jordan retired from the Bulls (then un-retired with Washington for a while, but that's neither here nor there). The Bulls did have a couple of years of prominence with D-Rose, but they've never been back to the Finals, much less won. That's a quarter-century we're talking about.

The Spurs had a nice run with Robinson and then Duncan ... now they're probably looking at a long, cold stretch. They'll still squeak out some playoff appearances under Pops, but their days as a contender are over, probably for a long time.

Dirk retired from Dallas. They got lucky with Doncic, but they're still a long, long way from contending. And thanks to trading for Kristaps and strip-mining their future picks, they'll probably never get there.

Besides, as Cassity and Brew pointed out above, there's just too much randomness in acquiring top-level talent for there to be any accepted path to a rebuild. You have to get the picks, sure ... but you also have to get them in a draft where there's a potential superstar available. The Cavs getting the top pick in 2013 was almost a curse rather than a blessing, as there was nobody in that draft worth a top pick (unless you want to claim 20-20 hindsight and say they should have taken Giannis ... if so, please point me to your post before the draft making that suggestion). Of course, they took that curse and multiplied it by using the pick on Bennett ... but none of the top dogs in that draft (Oladipo, Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex MFing Len) were worth a #1 pick. So it's stupid to say (although many fans willingly jump into this stupidity) "they had the #1 pick! they should have gotten a superstar!" You can't just make them appear when you have a high pick.

This Cavs' rebuild has been pretty good, all things considered. They've had shitty lottery luck until this year. They didn't have any chance to draft future superstars (again, until this year). They took pretty much the best players that they could have gotten at the slots where they did draft.

(Don't believe me? Then look at the players taken immediately after the Cavs' selection. How would you like a young "core" of Kevin Knox, Jarrett Culver, and Onyeka Okongwu right now?

Sure, some fans will be impatient and expect the rebuild to be done in a month. Realistically, it takes many years, and that's if you luck into a future superstar. If not ... welcome to Sacramento. Hopefully Mobley will be that star for the Cavs, a guy they can build around.

 

[mds]

Maybe the real question is -- how many teams have lost a superstar player and ever returned to a championship level? (Other than the Lakers and Celtics, the NBA's two iconic franchises.)

Cavs lose LeBron (twice) ... we know what happened both times.

Miami lost LeBron (and Bosh) (and Wade) ... they've reloaded to some degree thanks to free agency, but unless there are any more bubble playoffs on the horizon, they're probably not returning to the mountaintop.

Jordan retired from the Bulls (then un-retired with Washington for a while, but that's neither here nor there). The Bulls did have a couple of years of prominence with D-Rose, but they've never been back to the Finals, much less won. That's a quarter-century we're talking about.

The Spurs had a nice run with Robinson and then Duncan ... now they're probably looking at a long, cold stretch. They'll still squeak out some playoff appearances under Pops, but their days as a contender are over, probably for a long time.

Dirk retired from Dallas. They got lucky with Doncic, but they're still a long, long way from contending. And thanks to trading for Kristaps and strip-mining their future picks, they'll probably never get there.

Besides, as Cassity and Brew pointed out above, there's just too much randomness in acquiring top-level talent for there to be any accepted path to a rebuild. You have to get the picks, sure ... but you also have to get them in a draft where there's a potential superstar available. The Cavs getting the top pick in 2013 was almost a curse rather than a blessing, as there was nobody in that draft worth a top pick (unless you want to claim 20-20 hindsight and say they should have taken Giannis ... if so, please point me to your post before the draft making that suggestion). Of course, they took that curse and multiplied it by using the pick on Bennett ... but none of the top dogs in that draft (Oladipo, Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex MFing Len) were worth a #1 pick. So it's stupid to say (although many fans willingly jump into this stupidity) "they had the #1 pick! they should have gotten a superstar!" You can't just make them appear when you have a high pick.

This Cavs' rebuild has been pretty good, all things considered. They've had shitty lottery luck until this year. They didn't have any chance to draft future superstars (again, until this year). They took pretty much the best players that they could have gotten at the slots where they did draft.

(Don't believe me? Then look at the players taken immediately after the Cavs' selection. How would you like a young "core" of Kevin Knox, Jarrett Culver, and Onyeka Okongwu right now?

Sure, some fans will be impatient and expect the rebuild to be done in a month. Realistically, it takes many years, and that's if you luck into a future superstar. If not ... welcome to Sacramento. Hopefully Mobley will be that star for the Cavs, a guy they can build around.

Solid take.

 

[Cavatt]

Depends somewhat on luck, I suppose. But also intelligent hires. Milwaukee got lucky with Giannis and they made a smart hire, in Budenholzer.

Our coaching hires have been questionable for years, and we didn’t get as much as we could have for Kyrie, and we also screwed ourselves/had some bad luck. Our rebuild goes a lot faster, if we are building around Doncić than if we are building around Sexton.

Mavs went in on Doncic and then KP. Used up all their draft capital and now they are in a position where they could lose him. Things change quickly, and like Lebron, Doncic being too good too fast has cost them any other high picks

 

[2 For The Brew]

Maybe the real question is -- how many teams have lost a superstar player and ever returned to a championship level? (Other than the Lakers and Celtics, the NBA's two iconic franchises.)

Cavs lose LeBron (twice) ... we know what happened both times.

Miami lost LeBron (and Bosh) (and Wade) ... they've reloaded to some degree thanks to free agency, but unless there are any more bubble playoffs on the horizon, they're probably not returning to the mountaintop.

Jordan retired from the Bulls (then un-retired with Washington for a while, but that's neither here nor there). The Bulls did have a couple of years of prominence with D-Rose, but they've never been back to the Finals, much less won. That's a quarter-century we're talking about.

The Spurs had a nice run with Robinson and then Duncan ... now they're probably looking at a long, cold stretch. They'll still squeak out some playoff appearances under Pops, but their days as a contender are over, probably for a long time.

Dirk retired from Dallas. They got lucky with Doncic, but they're still a long, long way from contending. And thanks to trading for Kristaps and strip-mining their future picks, they'll probably never get there.

Besides, as Cassity and Brew pointed out above, there's just too much randomness in acquiring top-level talent for there to be any accepted path to a rebuild. You have to get the picks, sure ... but you also have to get them in a draft where there's a potential superstar available. The Cavs getting the top pick in 2013 was almost a curse rather than a blessing, as there was nobody in that draft worth a top pick (unless you want to claim 20-20 hindsight and say they should have taken Giannis ... if so, please point me to your post before the draft making that suggestion). Of course, they took that curse and multiplied it by using the pick on Bennett ... but none of the top dogs in that draft (Oladipo, Porter, Cody Zeller, Alex MFing Len) were worth a #1 pick. So it's stupid to say (although many fans willingly jump into this stupidity) "they had the #1 pick! they should have gotten a superstar!" You can't just make them appear when you have a high pick.

This Cavs' rebuild has been pretty good, all things considered. They've had shitty lottery luck until this year. They didn't have any chance to draft future superstars (again, until this year). They took pretty much the best players that they could have gotten at the slots where they did draft.

(Don't believe me? Then look at the players taken immediately after the Cavs' selection. How would you like a young "core" of Kevin Knox, Jarrett Culver, and Onyeka Okongwu right now?

Sure, some fans will be impatient and expect the rebuild to be done in a month. Realistically, it takes many years, and that's if you luck into a future superstar. If not ... welcome to Sacramento. Hopefully Mobley will be that star for the Cavs, a guy they can build around.

The main problem is that, on a practical basis, the players available when we pick in the draft, the players available in trades and the players available in free agency are a fraction of the total and severely limit what a GM can do.

“It’s Koby’s job to get a superstar” is easy to say but it’s a lot easier if you get that high pick in a loaded draft, get a #1 overall when Lew Alcindor or LeBron is there, are the GM of the Lakers, etc.

We get posts all the time demanding a “Plan.” What does that mean? “We need a wing” - no shit. I’m sure Koby would love to get a good wing, and if a stud wing was there at #3 no doubt he would have grabbed him, but Mobley was there and the wing will have to wait. External events change plans all the time.

Nobody had any idea we would be able to trade for Larry Nance Snr until it happened. We had no idea taking on Baron Davis would get us the #1 overall. One move makes such a difference in this league and we never know when the next move will happen. The Nets for example can’t sleep easily because Durant‘s Achilles is always a worry and Kyrie could go walkabout without warning. Who had the Suns and Bucks?

I for one am happy to run it out with what we have. Kids will learn, Love is done in two seasons, and if we can’t pick up our wins we’ll get another decent draft pick. Sure, I’d love to have an all star 3& D but we’ve done all right this offseason.

 

[Ozone]

in years it all rides on coaching imo. Sexton and Garland were not JBB picks but clearly Okoro and Mobley were as well as trading for and overpaying Allen.
Love is still a headache the team in itself is a collection of poorly fitting pieces that haven't proved themselves enough to get good value in trades.
Maybe the shuffle will happen sooner than in a couple seasons but I bet the same players that are the core now will be the core in 2 years from now provided they make the play in this season.
Example if Mobley is a beast the Cavs will get vets on 1 year deals next summer in FA

 

[foucault87]

Depends on what you count as the end of a rebuild. There is a really strong take that says you aren't finished until you are a contending team, of which there are ~ 5 per year. I think the barrier should be when you become a perennial playoff team like Indy or Portland. So a team like the Twolves, who were a one hit wonder in 2018, I would say are still rebuilding.

You also need to adjust some for the starting point of a rebuild. If Klay and Steph were to retire today and GSW had to start their build with Wiseman/Moody/Kuminga they have a fairly solid young core to begin with. We were in a much tougher position with Sexton and little else to start our rebuild.

The way you accelerate a rebuild is by getting those high upside pieces and them hitting. We only really had a great shot at one this year after 4 tries in the lottery. Otherwise we had to rely on Sexland, Brodric Thomas, Okoro, Dean Wade etc. We were in a really bad position compared to other teams like OKC who were able to flip their stars for picks. And since Griff was selling off our picks like a rent controlled apartment in SF, we were even more limited.

Realistically, with a decent amount of lottery luck, you can get to the low playoffs consistently in about 5-6 years I think. It is very easy to just keep screwing up and getting stuck as Sacto. You really need a lot to go right to make it to contender status: good GMing moves on the margins, lottery luck, smart drafting with late picks, good cap and asset management and some injury luck. I think you need a lot less to break the low playoffs.

I have faith in or young guys. I think a good comp for us is Atl about 2 years ago. I think we should be inching to ~ 30-35 wins in the next year or so and break 40 + low playoff seed in 2023.