Kawhi ?

[gourimoko]

What do think is the most likely scenario that this all plays out like, do the Cavs have a chance (assuming LeBron stays), and what would it most likely take as far a trade package for the Cavs to get Kawhi?


@InBoobieWeTrust , please do drop you opinion on this too.

I think it 100% depends on what is happening with Kawhi... his situation feels to me like someone who just doesn't want to be there anymore. Given his injury and Tony Parker's, comparatively, it seems like Kawhi is just sitting out but no one wants to call him out on it.

We also know that LaMarcus Aldridge requested a trade over the summer; so it's entirely possible both Aldridge and Kawhi did the same thing?

Given the Spurs franchise, their culture, and Pop's desire to protect his players from the media, it's possible this is all being kept under wraps -- but that Pop knows Kawhi is reluctant to play.

With all that being said, Kawhi is getting additional medical treatment / rehab in New York, so, it's not like he isn't actually hurt.

So bottom line is that, if Kawhi comss out and demands a trade, the Cavs do have some ability to make that work, but so do many other teams. Thus, the only way I can see Kawhi getting to Cleveland is if he angles his way here. Otherwise, he'll get to another team with better assets (like Boston, Philly, etc). I could also see him leaving for Los Angeles in free agency when the time comes, as he is from here -- and that would be the biggest market available and in a basketball town.

So yeah, the Cavs could make an offer, but it would be up to Kawhi and LeBron to make this work; and given Kawhi's already missed season, many teams might be reluctant to trade so much value for a guy saying he doesn't know if and when he'll play.

 

[czvo]

I think it 100% depends on what is happening with Kawhi... his situation feels to me like someone who just doesn't want to be there anymore. Given his injury and Tony Parker's, comparatively, it seems like Kawhi is just sitting out but no one wants to call him out on it.

We also know that LaMarcus Aldridge requested a trade over the summer; so it's entirely possible both Aldridge and Kawhi did the same thing?

Given the Spurs franchise, their culture, and Pop's desire to protect his players from the media, it's possible this is all being kept under wraps -- but that Pop knows Kawhi is reluctant to play.

With all that being said, Kawhi is getting additional medical treatment / rehab in New York, so, it's not like he isn't actually hurt.

So bottom line is that, if Kawhi comss out and demands a trade, the Cavs do have some ability to make that work, but so do many other teams. Thus, the only way I can see Kawhi getting to Cleveland is if he angles his way here. Otherwise, he'll get to another team with better assets (like Boston, Philly, etc). I could also see him leaving for Los Angeles in free agency when the time comes, as he is from here -- and that would be the biggest market available and in a basketball town.

So yeah, the Cavs could make an offer, but it would be up to Kawhi and LeBron to make this work; and given Kawhi's already missed season, many teams might be reluctant to trade so much value for a guy saying he doesn't know if and when he'll play.

You sure about that? Really feels like Pop, Manu and Parker have ALL done that through the media the last few weeks. Parker saying that his injury was 100x worse, and Manu saying that he's not coming back, plus Pop basically telling the media, "it's up to him, we're going to go about our business, he can come back if he wants," screams them calling him out.

Oh, and I think you're spot on with the LA angle. No one seems to want to consider that, for some reason, but it makes too much sense.

 

[RuanuLaw]

I think it 100% depends on what is happening with Kawhi... his situation feels to me like someone who just doesn't want to be there anymore. Given his injury and Tony Parker's, comparatively, it seems like Kawhi is just sitting out but no one wants to call him out on it.

We also know that LaMarcus Aldridge requested a trade over the summer; so it's entirely possible both Aldridge and Kawhi did the same thing?

Given the Spurs franchise, their culture, and Pop's desire to protect his players from the media, it's possible this is all being kept under wraps -- but that Pop knows Kawhi is reluctant to play.

With all that being said, Kawhi is getting additional medical treatment / rehab in New York, so, it's not like he isn't actually hurt.

So bottom line is that, if Kawhi comss out and demands a trade, the Cavs do have some ability to make that work, but so do many other teams. Thus, the only way I can see Kawhi getting to Cleveland is if he angles his way here. Otherwise, he'll get to another team with better assets (like Boston, Philly, etc). I could also see him leaving for Los Angeles in free agency when the time comes, as he is from here -- and that would be the biggest market available and in a basketball town.

So yeah, the Cavs could make an offer, but it would be up to Kawhi and LeBron to make this work; and given Kawhi's already missed season, many teams might be reluctant to trade so much value for a guy saying he doesn't know if and when he'll play.

IF Kawhi did angle to come here, what kind of package do you think it would take?

 

[gourimoko]

IF Kawhi did angle to come here, what kind of package do you think it would take?

That would largely depend on Popovich. He knows he's trading an MVP-caliber player, to a team with LeBron James, and one with another year on his contract.

So you're talking, a starting point of, Kevin Love, Cedi Osman and one of either Zizic or Nance (they'd prefer Nance, obviously) and the BKN pick. I would think Pop would also demand we take back additional salary in the form of Pau Gasol. That checks the boxes:

1) Get back an All-Star caliber player in return: Kevin Love;
2) Get back one or two young prospects: Cedi Osman and either Zizic or Nance;
3) A draft pick (BKN);
4) Salary-relief for the future; Pau Gasol

For the Spurs, that's a decent return. It's not ideal, though. Love only has one year left before free agency, Osman isn't a sure-fire thing (hence a preference for Nance, who probably is), the BKN pick is a lottery pick but not a top pick, it's in the latter-half of the lottery in fact; and that's why adding in salary relief for the Spurs is very likely required.

I think we might lobby Danny Green to opt-in and include himself in such a deal as well. If that were the case, the trade would likely look something like:

CLE out:
Kevin Love
George Hill (salary)
Cedi Osman
Ante Zizic
BKN pick
------
$46.9M

CLE in:
Kawhi Leonard
Pau Gasol
Danny Green
-------
$44.9M

And just a few points of negotiation for the Cavs:

1) Swap out Hill for JR Smith; their guaranteed salaries over the next two years are almost identical $20M for Hill vs $18.59 vs Smith (guaranteed). The Cavs could include up to $5.1M in cash considerations for the Spurs if they take Smith, making the difference here $6.51M.

2) If the Spurs demand Nance, we need additional players, and they must take Smith.

But I'm not so sure Aldridge is the Spurs future -- especially without Kawhi, and no clear path to move forward. He might be on the trading block as well, which could add a great deal of volatility to this discussion.

Shame the BKN pick isn't more valuable though... it would really alter the dynamic here in our favor, massively, if it was in the Top 5.

 

[Stark]

That would largely depend on Popovich. He knows he's trading an MVP-caliber player, to a team with LeBron James, and one with another year on his contract.

So you're talking, a starting point of, Kevin Love, Cedi Osman and one of either Zizic or Nance (they'd prefer Nance, obviously) and the BKN pick. I would think Pop would also demand we take back additional salary in the form of Pau Gasol. That checks the boxes:

1) Get back an All-Star caliber player in return: Kevin Love;
2) Get back one or two young prospects: Cedi Osman and either Zizic or Nance;
3) A draft pick (BKN);
4) Salary-relief for the future; Pau Gasol

For the Spurs, that's a decent return. It's not ideal, though. Love only has one year left before free agency, Osman isn't a sure-fire thing (hence a preference for Nance, who probably is), the BKN pick is a lottery pick but not a top pick, it's in the latter-half of the lottery in fact; and that's why adding in salary relief for the Spurs is very likely required.

I think we might lobby Danny Green to opt-in and include himself in such a deal as well. If that were the case, the trade would likely look something like:

CLE out:
Kevin Love
George Hill (salary)
Cedi Osman
Ante Zizic
BKN pick
------
$46.9M

CLE in:
Kawhi Leonard
Pau Gasol
Danny Green
-------
$44.9M

And just a few points of negotiation for the Cavs:

1) Swap out Hill for JR Smith; their guaranteed salaries over the next two years are almost identical $20M for Hill vs $18.59 vs Smith (guaranteed). The Cavs could include up to $5.1M in cash considerations for the Spurs if they take Smith, making the difference here $6.51M.

2) If the Spurs demand Nance, we need additional players, and they must take Smith.

But I'm not so sure Aldridge is the Spurs future -- especially without Kawhi, and no clear path to move forward. He might be on the trading block as well, which could add a great deal of volatility to this discussion.

Shame the BKN pick isn't more valuable though... it would really alter the dynamic here in our favor, massively, if it was in the Top 5.

Am I crazy for thinking that deal isn't worth it for the Cavaliers? I get Kawhi is an MVP caliber guy and all that, but we'd be giving up our second best player who is a reliable 20/10 threat and a perfect big man compliment to LeBron, Cedi & Zizic, two guys who I personally believe have the potential to be high-end starters in this league. Maybe not all-stars, but very good starters. Our starting PG, which would only really leave us with Clarkson since Calderon is older than dirt, and our pick which would allow us to fill in some of those holes.

Plus Gasol is kind of garbage and doesn't fit an LBJ team at this point of his career. I like Danny Green, but I'm not sure.

 

[gourimoko]

Am I crazy for thinking that deal isn't worth it for the Cavaliers?

I mean, that's the underlying question, right? I don't think that's a crazy opinion, per se; but, I would do that deal though, even if it is technically an overpay. If the BKN pick wasn't slotted where it is, but instead Top 5, you could probably remove the additional players from the deal; but it'd still be Love+pick, no matter what.

Nonetheless, I think this is a reasonable ask from the Spurs... I don't think many Spurs fans would be terribly upset if they were in a no-win situation similar to our Kyrie debacle post trade demand. In this instance though, the Spurs are getting a substantially deal than we got for Irving.

So the weight of marginally healthy Irving compared to potentially broken Kawhi still favors Kawhi; but adding in all of the aforementioned assets and salary relief more than makes up for the difference, IMHO.

I get Kawhi is an MVP caliber guy and all that, but we'd be giving up our second best player who is a reliable 20/10 threat and a perfect big man compliment to LeBron, Cedi & Zizic, two guys who I personally believe have the potential to be high-end starters in this league. Maybe not all-stars, but very good starters. Our starting PG, which would only really leave us with Clarkson since Calderon is older than dirt, and our pick which would allow us to fill in some of those holes.

You're trading good players for a great one. We're talking about Kawhi Leonard, who, when healthy, is a Top 5 player in the NBA without question.

Plus Gasol is kind of garbage and doesn't fit an LBJ team at this point of his career. I like Danny Green, but I'm not sure.

We're not trading for Gasol because he's an asset; I'm assuming the Spurs would want to maximize a Kawhi deal by unloading Gasol -- so he's a negative asset in this deal that the Spurs would be getting rid of to open up cap space.

And yes, it'd be preferable to swap JR Smith in for Hill; I actually noted this in my previous post and that's why I suggested we could offer up the full $5.1M in cash considerations to help in that endeavor. If they were amenable to such a proposal, the Spurs could potentially just buyout Smith mid-season if he doesn't pan out at not much expense (at a 50% buyout, they would only pay JR Smith for half of the 2018 season, and then buy him out with the Cavs' cash contribution)...

With all that being said, I'd still do this trade if Kawhi indicated he would sign long-term for the Cavs..

 

[Stark]

With all that being said, I'd still do this trade if Kawhi indicated he would sign long-term for the Cavs..

Yeah, if he's given a clean bill of health, I'd do it too. Just would hate to lose a guy like K-Love.

You can't turn down a 1-2 combo of LeBron and Kawhi though. You get that and fill the pieces in around them the best you can. Top-end talent wins championships 95% of the time.

 

[gourimoko]

Yeah, if he's given a clean bill of health, I'd do it too. Just would hate to lose a guy like K-Love.

If Kawhi is given a clean bill of health, then the Spurs will start a bidding war that we would lose. I think the only way this deal is even possible for the Cavs is if Kawhi's health scares off other teams willing to trade a superior package. This is why Kawhi going to the doctor in New York, missing the playoffs, not wanting to return, etc, establishes a narrative that he might be damaged goods; thus lowering his value.

So for the Cavs, we would effectively need assurances from Kawhi that he was healthy and ready to play and that would mean that all of this was really just so he could get out of San Antonio. And... that would call a lot about his character into question....

You can't turn down a 1-2 combo of LeBron and Kawhi though. You get that and fill the pieces in around them the best you can. Top-end talent wins championships 95% of the time.

Precisely what I was thinking as well.

 

[Nathan S]

Just want to point out that because there's no consensus on the ordering of the top prospects in this draft, most teams, even down in the 8-10 range, will get players who are in the top-5 of their own big boards. For instance, using the big boards IBWT posted a while back


Cavs: Ayton, Bamba, Porter, Doncic, Jackson, Bagley, Young, Sexton, Carter, Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges

Philly: Jackson, Doncic, Young, Porter, Carter, Mikal, Sexton,Ayton, Bagley, Bamba, Musa

Hawks: Doncic, Jackson, Bagley, Ayton, Young, Bamba, Carter, Porter, Sexton, Walker, Mikal

Knicks: Doncic, Young, Porter, JJ,Ayton, Bamba, Sexton, Bagley, Mikal, Carter, Walker

Charlotte: Porter, Bagley, Ayton, Young, Doncic, Mikal, Bamba, Carter, Sexton, JJ, Knox

Suns: Doncic, Ayton, Bamba, Bagley, Young, Sexton, Miles, Walker, JJ, Porter, Carter

Mavs: Ayton, Doncic, Bamba, Bagley, Porter, Carter, JJ, Mikal, Miles, Young, Sexton,

Grizz: Doncic,JJ, Ayton, Porter, Carter, Bagley, Young, Mikal, Walker, Bamba, Hutchinson

Magic: Ayton, Doncic, Young, Bagley, Sexton, JJ, Bamba, Porter, Knox, Carter, Miles

Bulls: Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, Young, Mikal, Carter, Porter, JJ, Bamba, Sexton, Walker

Kings: Ayton, Young, Bagley, Mikal, JJ, Doncic, Walker, Miles, Knox, Carter, Bamba


and the current standings, teams would pick


Phoenix: Doncic, their #1 choice

Memphis: Jackson, their #2 choice

Atlanta: Bagley, their #3 choice

Dallas: Ayton, their #1 choice

Orlando: Young, their #3 choice

Chicago: Mikal, their #5 choice

Sacramento: Walker, their #7 choice

Cleveland: Bamba, their #2 choice

New York: Porter, their #3 choice

Philly: Carter, their #5 choice

Charlotte: Sexton, their #8 choice



So remarkably, in spite of picking 8th, the Cavs would get their #2 overall prospect in this scenario! Dallas, New York, and Philly similarly luck out, effectively moving up several slots simply due to differences in talent evaluation.

This is another layer of randomness in the draft that most people seem to be ignoring. There's a very real chance that a top 2-4 player on the Spurs' big board will still be around when we pick. And if that's the case, the pick would be massively valuable to them in a trade.

 

[czvo]

If the Kings take Lonnie Walker, I will laugh my fucking ass off.

 

[Nathan S]

If the Kings take Lonnie Walker, I will laugh my fucking ass off.

Would be a total Kings move, right??

I will note, though, that while some prospects like Walker faded down the stretch and may have dropped out of the top-10 on all big boards, others like Zhaire Smith and Jontay Porter who finished the season strong probably snuck into some top-10's. So it's still true that there could be a big surprise in the top 10; just probably won't be Walker.

 

[JMoneyYourHoney]

Am I crazy for thinking that deal isn't worth it for the Cavaliers?

Not at all. 34-year old LeBron, Kawhi Leonard and half our team isn't getting it done. You can say rather easily that our current team isn't getting it done, but that's when you either hope like hell we draft right or we can get another star without giving up the farm.

Spurs can kick rocks if they demand Love, that's too rich for my blood.

 

[czvo]

Would be a total Kings move, right??

I will note, though, that while some prospects like Walker faded down the stretch and may have dropped out of the top-10 on all big boards, others like Zhaire Smith and Jontay Porter who finished the season strong probably snuck into some top-10's. So it's still true that there could be a big surprise in the top 10; just probably won't be Walker.

I know it seems like I'm going out on a limb here, but there's no shot in hell Jontay Porter gets taken before 8. I don't care how much a couple of people here love him, it would be absurd for him to go that high.

I can see a 1% chance for Smith to skyrocket because of his athleticism, but I'd say it's extremely unlikely it happens.

 

[Nathan S]

I know it seems like I'm going out on a limb here, but there's no shot in hell Jontay Porter gets taken before 8. I don't care how much a couple of people here love him, it would be absurd for him to go that high.

I can see a 1% chance for Smith to skyrocket because of his athleticism, but I'd say it's extremely unlikely it happens.

Teams fall in love with all different guys for all different reasons. That's clear already just looking at the massive variations in where they have these prospects ranked. For some guys like Porter Jr, the range is (evidently) all the way from #1 to outside of the top-11. For guys like Jontay and Zhaire, the range may be from 7-8 to the mid second round. But I'd be surprised in particular if some team doesn't have Jontay in their top-10. He basically projects to be a better defensive version of Jokic. At least a team or two will recognize that possibility and have him very high.

 

[czvo]

Teams fall in love with all different guys for all different reasons. That's clear already just looking at the massive variations in where they have these prospects ranked. For some guys like Porter Jr, the range is (evidently) all the way from #1 to outside of the top-11. For guys like Jontay and Zhaire, the range may be from 7-8 to the mid second round. But I'd be surprised in particular if some team doesn't have Jontay in their top-10. He basically projects to be a better defensive version of Jokic. At least a team or two will recognize that possibility and have him very high.

Your model projects him as a Jokic type.

I'm not sure where that projection comes from just watching him play.