A new board means a new mock draft and here we are. Two months are in the books in college baseball and conference play is in full swing. A few guys are separating from the pack. This mock comes with some intel but it is still almost exclusively conjecture and hypotheticals. It does, however...
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1. Cleveland Guardians
Nick Kurtz, 1B — Wake Forest
HOMETOWN: Lancaster, PA
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 230
BAT/THROW: L-L
There’s some smoke here… We’re at the point in the 2024 draft cycle where bonus figures and hypothetical negotiations should be baked into the narrative. Realistically, there’s probably four guys that make sense for Cleveland here. Kurtz, Travis Bazzana, Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone and Braden Montgomery. Someone is almost certainly going to be strong-handed into an under-slot deal.
But what does that look like? Assuming Bazzana and Condon both expect their floor to be Colorado at 3, they should expect ~$9 million to be their base case take-home. The slot value of the No 1 overall pick is ~$10.6 million. Would Bazzana or Condon take $9.8 million to be the first overall pick? That saves Cleveland ~$800,000. If Caglianone thinks his floor is pick 4 (slot value of ~$8.4 million) would he take $9.2 million and save Cleveland $1.4 million of pool dollars? Would Montgomery take ~$8.8 million and save Cleveland ~$1.75 million? Kurtz is largely thought to be a guy who goes 4, 5 or 6. Would he take $8 million and save Cleveland ~$2.6 million to spend elsewhere? There’s some whispers that’s a possibility.
This pick could come down to which player gives the Guardians the best haircut and allows them to stretch their pool. Kurtz entered the year clearly one of the three-best players in the country, and he’s playing as such once again. Don’t be surprised if his name is called here in July with a boatload of savings.
36. Cleveland Guardians
Payton Tolle, LHP — TCU
HOMETOWN: Yukon, OK
HEIGHT: 6-6
WEIGHT: 225
BAT/THROW: L-L
Tolle is a metric darling with a devastating fastball up to 97 featuring elite extension and a unicorn vertical approach angle. He’s precisely the type of arm that’s found success in Cleveland over the years; an organization that makes hay developing pitching. Tolle will need to continue developing a third pitch and reining in his control, but for now the fastball-slider combo gets hitters out at extreme clips. It’s middle-of-the-rotation upside.