MLB 30 Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds

[AZ_]

Manager:

Bryan Price (1st Season)

Last Season:

90-72, 3rd in NL Central, lost to Pittsburgh in the NL Wild Card Game

-Hit just .249 as a team, but ranked second in the league in OBP and led the league in walks by more than 40.
-Had a winning record in all but one month (June: 12-15) during the regular season
-Posted a .613 winning percentage at home, 18 games over .500

Key Additions:
UTIL - Skip Schumaker (injured)
C - Brayan Pena
RHP - David Homberg


Key Departures:
C - Ryan Hanigan
OF - Shin Soo Choo
RHP - Bronson Arroyo

Projected Lineup:

(ZIPS PROJECTIONS: AVG/OBP/SLG)
CF Billy Hamilton (.242/.305/.343)
2B Brandon Phillips (.277/.329/.414)
1B Joey Votto (.292/.427/.488)
RF Jay Bruce (.265/.340/.496)
LF Ryan Ludwick (.249/.317/.412)
3B Todd Frazier (.256/.334/.445)
C Devin Mesoraco (.268/.322/.403)
SS Zack Cozart (.270/.306/.404)


Projected Rotation:

(ZIPS PROJECTIONS: W-L, ERA)
Johnny Cueto (9-6, 3.60)
Homer Bailey (13-8, 3.47)
Mike Leake (11-10, 3.99)
Tony Cingrani (11-8, 3.60)
Matt Latos (11-7, 3.39)

Projected Bullpen:

(ZIPS PROJECTIONS: W-L, ERA, WHIP)
CL Aroldis Chapman (2-2, 2.31, 1.00, 21 saves)
CL JJ Hoover (2-2, 3.27, 1.09, 7 saves)
RP Sean Marshall (2-2, 3.60, 1.16)
RP Sam LeCure (3-3, 3.32, 1.20)
LP Manny Parra (3-3, 3.60, 1.32)
RP Jonathan Broxton (2-2, 4.40, 1.33)
RP Logan Ondrusek (2-2, 4.05, 1.30)

Best Case:

They get healthy and continue being one of the best teams in the National League, Hamilton proves he can hit and if he posts an OBP anywhere near average he's going to steal a ton of bases. Mat Latos returns and continues to grow into a capable front end guy. Aroldis Chapman returns and proves he can continue to dominate in the 9th.

Worst Case:

Injuries already killing them, so many guys are already banged up and more have a history of getting banged up. Latos is down, Cueto coming off his worst season, Schumaker down. Has not been a good spring, and if that carries into the regular season they could fall behind early in the best division in the NL.

Prediction:

The Reds just aren't able to overcome their injuries and limp to a third place finish with no playoffs. They just don't have the horses this season.