Projecting the Deadline Trades (Some guy's take)

[Grayson]

Buyers and Sellers
Projecting the Trade Deadline

by Kevin Pelton

With just over a month until the Feb. 18 NBA trade deadline, several teams have important decisions to make. Will they be buyers, looking to add veteran talent for a run at the postseason? Or will they be sellers, shedding long-term contracts in favor of expiring deals designed to clear space under the cap? Add in the complexities of the luxury tax and the difficulty of predicting which superstars, if any, will be on the move this summer and we have the recipe for one of the most fascinating deadlines ever. Let's take a look at what teams are--or at least should be--thinking as Feb. 18 approaches.

Buyers

Boston - With an open roster spot after waiving rookie Lester Hudson, the Celtics are sure to add a veteran to the bench for their stretch run. The more likely scenario would seem to be Boston pursuing a buyout candidate, but with some expiring contracts (Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine), the Celtics have options depending on how quickly Marquis Daniels and Kevin Garnett get healthy and make those two expendable.

Cleveland - The Cavaliers have a big expiring contract in Zydrunas Ilgauskas to dangle and as much incentive as anyone in the league to win now and secure LeBron James' future. Antawn Jamison's name has been connected to Cleveland for years, and that talk will likely only get stronger. One interesting possible development the last two games: Could Jawad Williams be a useful contributor for the Cavaliers as a stretch four off the bench?

Dallas - Part of a group of four teams in the West that is currently virtually indistinguishable statistically (Denver, Phoenix and Utah being the others), the Mavericks have a chance to separate from this pack with a well-timed move. However, their lone big expiring contract (Erick Dampier) becomes more valuable July 1 because Dampier actually has a non-guaranteed salary for 2010-11 that could be an instant expiring this summer.

Denver - The Nuggets have made it clear they would love to add another big man to the existing trio of Kenyon Martin, Nenê and Chris Andersen. If Denver is willing to add more to its luxury-tax bill, the $3.7 million trade exception created by trading Steven Hunter to Memphis could work to bring in a low-cost post player.

Houston - Though they have slipped to ninth in the West in schedule-adjusted point differential, the Rockets still have a chance to get better in a hurry by using Tracy McGrady's enormous expiring contract to add talent. I don't see Daryl Morey making a move for the sake of making a move, but if the right player comes available (Chris Bosh?), Houston is in great position to act.

Memphis - Maybe not on a significant scale, but with the Grizzlies above .500 at this late date you'd have to think they'd consider adding a piece to the bench that has been their weakness throughout the season. Nate Robinson was reportedly nearly sent to Memphis, while other reports indicated the Grizzlies asked about Travis Outlaw before his injury. Hunter's expiring contract and the team's limited remaining cap space offer some options.

Miami - The Heat is actually probably somewhere in between. With Miami currently fifth in the East, there's some incentive to upgrade, especially should Rafer Alston prove inadequate at the point. At the same time, the Heat's massive trove of cap space this summer means the team is probably looking at dealing one expiring contract (most likely Udonis Haslem) for another.

Oklahoma City - While the Thunder isn't exactly loading up for a playoff run--Oklahoma City's vision is much longer-term than that--Sam Presti does have two large expiring contracts at his disposal in Matt Harpring and Etan Thomas. Harpring could be especially valuable to a team with financial woes, as insurance will start covering 80 percent of his contract within the next couple of weeks. The Thunder could give up that extra cash to effectively buy another pick or prospect even after getting Eric Maynor from Utah with Harpring last month.

San Antonio - In a turn of events that was unthinkable as recently as Christmas Eve, the Spurs moved atop the Western Conference in schedule-adjusted point differential with yesterday's 20-point smackdown of the Lakers at the AT&T Center. All of a sudden, the preseason projections that San Antonio would be the Lakers' biggest threat in the West are looking legitimate. The Spurs have plenty of expiring contracts with which to tinker, including Matt Bonner, Michael Finley and Roger Mason, though they would have to sacrifice depth if they traded multiple players from that group. Another quality wing player could make a deal worth it.

Sellers

Detroit - The Pistons are still just 4.5 games out of the playoffs, but a 13-game losing streak doesn't exactly scream postseason. As Joe Dumars continues to sort out what the next great Detroit team will look like, Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince could well be on the move.

Indiana - T.J. Ford has fallen out of both favor and the rotation, making him a likely trade candidate by the deadline, while Jeff Foster could be moved as well without much impact on the Pacers' short- or long-term fortunes.

Philadelphia - A good couple of weeks could still convince the 76ers to keep this group together, and they are 10th in the East in schedule-adjusted point differential. So while Elton Brand (owner of arguably the NBA's worst contract at the moment) is certainly very, very available and Samuel Dalembert could be on the move, things would probably have to get somewhat worse to make Andre Iguodala legitimately in play.

Sacramento - Despite their surprising success this season, the Kings aren't ready to compete in the West, so balancing their books for the long term should be the primary goal. To that end, the most attractive trade candidate is Andres Nocioni, but does anyone want to take on the last two seasons of Nocioni's contract? Unlikely. Sacramento will probably wait until at least the offseason to evaluate the viability of a Tyreke Evans-Kevin Martin backcourt and act accordingly.

Washington - If the Wizards were a rug company, they would be running a commercial advertising that "No reasonable offer will be refused!" and "All players must go now!" Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison are the prizes, obviously. The final year of DeShawn Stevenson's contract will be much more challenging to move, while Andray Blatche could be in play too.

Uncertain

Chicago - This is the most interesting group--teams that need an accurate read on their own chances prior to the deadline. The Bulls, as Bradford Doolittle wrote yesterday, are ridiculously enigmatic. If the season ended today, they'd claim the eighth playoff spot in the East. However, their schedule-adjusted point differential ranks 12th in the conference. The results of the next couple of weeks will determine whether Chicago is shopping Kirk Hinrich, though adding long-term deals is very unlikely either way as the Bulls look to protect their cap space.

Golden State - If only because nothing is ever certain in Oakland. If you can figure out what the Warriors do next, you are a smarter individual than I.

L.A. Clippers - Winners of four in a row before last night's strange interrupted loss in Memphis, the Clippers have a chance to get in the picture for the eighth spot in the West if Blake Griffin returns relatively quickly. On the other hand, a poor spell could quickly knock them out of contention and make Marcus Camby available to teams looking to load up.

Minnesota - The Timberwolves are still in asset acquisition mode, and that could mean trades or it might not. (How is that for an open-ended conclusion?) If the right deal comes up for Al Jefferson, it's hardly unthinkable that Minnesota might move him, and I would expect David Kahn to shop Ramon Sessions.

New Jersey - In the wake of Monday's deal adding Kris Humphries and Shawne Williams in exchange for Eduardo Najera, it's been suggested by Marc Stein that the Nets are looking to remake their bench to improve attitudes and add youthful enthusiasm for the second half of the season. New Jersey has some strong motivation, certainly, to at least hit double-figure wins.

Orlando - The Magic's up-and-down play could lead to exploring a move before the deadline. If Orlando wanted to move a big man, both Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat--one of whom is certainly expendable--could fetch some solid value.

Portland - The Blazers will presumably look to move Andre Miller by the deadline, and could also explore deals for a center with an expiring contract. As John Hollinger notes, Brendan Haywood would be a perfect fit if Portland is willing to part with Steve Blake (another expiring) or is able to get creative by involving other teams.

Toronto - The recent surge of Bosh talk is kind of odd considering the Raptors have won eight of their last 11 games to move into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Toronto has been so much better since Jarrett Jack moved into the starting lineup that it's plausible to see the Raptors emerging as the only legitimate threat to the top four teams in the East. If Toronto could somehow pull off an upset, would that keep Bosh around? And is that chance worth taking rather than exploring a pre-deadline deal with Bosh? We'll know more a month from now.

Utah - Here's the biggest disconnect between the standings and point differential. If the season ended today, the Jazz would be tied for the eighth spot in the West with Houston, but their point differential is fourth in the conference, which slips only to fifth taking schedule into account. By those measures, Utah is a contender, which would make trading Carlos Boozer much more painful. Still, the luxury-tax pressure on the Jazz is not inconsiderable, making Utah a major wild card between now and the deadline.

Neither

Atlanta - While the Hawks have surprised the league by putting themselves in the thick of the race for the Eastern Conference title, it's hard to see Atlanta being especially active by the deadline. The Hawks' only expiring contract of any significance belongs to star shooting guard Joe Johnson, so the Hawks would have to move a core piece in order to bring someone back.

Charlotte - Larry Brown would love to add a backup power forward, but the Bobcats already cashed in their trade chips in dealing for Stephen Jackson, so for better or worse this looks like Charlotte's team going forward. The Bobcats are currently fifth in the East in schedule-adjusted point differential.

L.A. Lakers - The recent scuttle of a Chris Bosh-for-Andrew Bynum deal aside, the Lakers don't seem particularly inclined to make a move. However, at some point the weakness of the L.A. bench might force Mitch Kupchak to act, and he does have a sizeable expiring contract in forward Adam Morrison to use.

Milwaukee - Honestly, can you remember hearing a trade rumor about the Bucks? Think about it. I'll wait. Nothing? I thought so. Milwaukee seems to be content to let its youngsters sort themselves out and hope for the playoffs (the Bucks' schedule-adjusted differential is eighth in the East).

New Orleans - Even while playing their way back into the playoff picture, the Hornets are trying desperately to avoid the luxury tax. Monday's trade sending Hilton Armstrong to Sacramento got New Orleans nearly all the way there, but the Hornets still need to dump $500,000 to get under the tax threshold. That should be fairly easily achieved by dealing someone from the end of the bench, so it looks like the teams hoping to get their hands on David West will have to wait.

New York - There's the potential for some minor deals swapping expiring contracts for the Knicks, but with the current group playing well and the cap in good shape, it's hard to see much motivation for New York to go beyond that unless someone gets really excited about the way Jared Jeffries has been playing the last month and a half.

Phoenix - The Suns are certainly in a position where they could help themselves with the right deal, but it's tough to see anything that makes sense. Phoenix's largest expiring contract belongs to Jarron Collins, making the veteran minimum, and the Suns are over the tax, so it's unlikely they will use the small trade exception they created in the Shaquille O'Neal trade. Barring something creative, Phoenix will stand pat.

Highlighted the teams that matter, at least the teams that matter a little.

I don't think that the Hawks are going to make a move. They're 3-0 versus the Celtics (best team in the east?) So the Hawks are going to hang their hats on that. Which is good. I want the media to keep pushing that the Celtics are the team to beat. Keep ignoring that the Cavs have a better record VS winning teams, i like that.

The Laker's can make a move, will they? No one knows what the Dali Lama, I mean Phil Jackson, is going to do. But a hurt Gasol & Kobe makes people re-evaluate their situation.

Orlando, for Orlando's sake, needs to make a move. Because what they did in the past off-season, FAIL.

Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland. I pose the question again, especially in light of recent play. Could Jawad Williams be a useful contributor for the Cavaliers as a stretch four off the bench?