There is this tool which supposedly provides optimal lineups. I am not sure how it works, it's not very transparent but it only requires OBP and SLG as inputs and so I tried 3 different 2023 projections from Fangraphs and got 3 different optimal lineups. You can click on the links below to mess around with the projections and see other lineups other than the top one for a given projection, as well as the worst lineups (not surprisingly they have Zunino leading off, Straw at cleanup, and Ramirez hitting 8th).
ZiPS
Steven Kwan | Josh Naylor | Andres Gimenez | Jose Ramirez | Josh Bell | Mike Zunino | Oscar Gonzalez | Amed Rosario | Myles Straw |
Steamer
Steven Kwan | Jose Ramirez | Oscar Gonzalez | Josh Bell | Josh Naylor | Amed Rosario | Andres Gimenez | Mike Zunino | Myles Straw |
ATC
Steven Kwan | Jose Ramirez | Andres Gimenez | Josh Naylor | Josh Bell | Oscar Gonzalez | Amed Rosario | Mike Zunino | Myles Straw |
The Bat X
Steven Kwan | Josh Naylor | Andres Gimenez | Jose Ramirez | Josh Bell | Mike Zunino | Oscar Gonzalez | Amed Rosario | Myles Straw |
Could do others (edit:
The Bat X link) but there are some pretty basic things that can be observed.
- Kwan is always #1, Straw is always #9. Apparently OBP plays better in the 9 hole and SLG plays better in the 8 hole. Kwan's high OBP / lowish SLG is tailor-made for leading off (this is common sense but confirmed in results).
- Jose, Naylor, and Bell are in the #2, #4, and #5 holes in some order. This makes sense given that these are the optimal power slots in a lineup.
- Gimenez, OGonz, Rosario, and Zunino are in the #3, #6, and #7, and #8 holes in some order.
So the composite lineup would be basically the lineup that I suggested which itself was based off everything that I've read about optimal lineup construction (something which really entered the discussion around Tom Tango's The Book).
Kwan
Ramirez/Naylor (preferred due to being switch hitter to break up lefties)
Gimenez
Naylor (I prefer Bell and swapping Naylor to #5 due to L-S-L-S-L-R-R-R-R being superior to L-S-L-L-S-R-R-R-R due to less bunching of lefties)
Bell
Zunino/Rosario (I have more faith in Rosario here but Zunino is projected for high SLG)
OGonz
Rosario
Straw
Most strikingly, Amed is the #6-8 hitter rather than the #2 hitter... quite a big difference.
But, Amed is hitting 2nd. DEAL WITH IT.