The End of an Era: Case Keenum Traded to Buffalo

[chrisrich91]

I think Keenum is serviceable but he needs everything to go right to pick up a win against a good team. I don't trust our defense to make a stop. Do we think Keenum can drive down the field on every possession?

Trotting Keenum out there this week against Pittsburgh would be an unmitigated disaster.

I know Pittsburgh has underwhelmed this yea, but they are not the Denver Broncos…especially in a divisional matchup against us.

As mediocre and banged up as Baker has been, he needs to be back this week or we’re going to get tossed.

 

[Douglar]

Trotting Keenum out there this week against Pittsburgh would be an unmitigated disaster.

I know Pittsburgh has underwhelmed this yea, but they are not the Denver Broncos…especially in a divisional matchup against us.

As mediocre and banged up as Baker has been, he needs to be back this week or we’re going to get tossed.

I'd take a healthy Keenum over a jittery Mayfield with a broken arm.

Why?

• Baker with the first shoulder injury was jittery in the pocket, had nervous feet that make overthrow more likely, and it's probably not a coincidence that the team stopped calling the play action boot leg that made Baker so dangerous last year.
• Baker's bad stretch of games happend before the humerus fracture. Shoulder is worse now. Seems likely that broken arm Baker would underperform the season low point set in the Chicago game. Baker needs needs 3-6 weeks off.
• Do you really want to play Baker against TJ Watt ? One more hit on that shoulder and Baker could go out for the year.
• Keenum isn't as bad as people make him out to be. He won't stretch the field, but he won't turn it over either. He also knows how to read a blitz at least as well as Baker and you know Pittsburgh is going to blitz.

I think it's time to just get used to see Keenum starting. Maybe he's back for the Raven's game.

 

[Vee-Rex]

Don’t kid yourself… Keenum isn’t a stranger to turnovers.

 

[Lee]

Don’t kid yourself… Keenum isn’t a stranger to turnovers.

Exactly, in his career Keenum was turnedover to a new roster almost every year, lol

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Keenum playing as “well” as he did was 100% on Stefanski and scheme. He has the single worst arm of any starting QB and can’t threaten defenses at all. He hamstrings what the offense can do to only the most basic aspects

it worked against Denver because we have a great coach and the rest of the team was sharp, but starting him against the Yinzers in ketchup field is a disaster waiting to happen

 

[shoes22]

Keenum playing as “well” as he did was 100% on Stefanski and scheme. He has the single worst arm of any starting QB and can’t threaten defenses at all. He hamstrings what the offense can do to only the most basic aspects

it worked against Denver because we have a great coach and the rest of the team was sharp, but starting him against the Yinzers in ketchup field is a disaster waiting to happen

Good news then because the next game is at home, again

 

[Douglar]

Case Keenum - Aggresive QB?

Most/least aggressive QBs (using NFL Next Gen Stats)​

(NFL Next Gen’s “aggressiveness” rate “tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.”)

Most aggressive in Week 7

PLAYER	AGG%
Joe Burrow	34.2
Tom Brady	27.8
Case Keenum	27.3
Carson Wentz	26.9

 

[CBBI]

Case Keenum - Aggresive QB?

Most/least aggressive QBs (using NFL Next Gen Stats)​

(NFL Next Gen’s “aggressiveness” rate “tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion.”)

Most aggressive in Week 7

PLAYER	AGG%
Joe Burrow	34.2
Tom Brady	27.8
Case Keenum	27.3
Carson Wentz	26.9

More likely his arm is so weak that the guys he sees who are wide open become tightly covered by the time his flutter balls actually reach them

 

[I'mWithDan]

The problem isn't that Case can't produce sort of average QB play......he can. The problem is that it is his ceiling at this point.

The median QBR on the season is 56.3, for starting QB's. Case's QBR, in what was a pretty flawless performance on his part, was 46.6.

If you look at records below median QBR performance this season, the Browns are VASTLY out performing this league mark:

W/L under median QBR performance:

League: 41-82 (0.333)
Browns: 4-2 (.667)

We ironically managed to lose our only above median QBR performance of the year...Mayfeld's 57.3 in week 1.

So the scheme is carrying us for sure.......but the schedule is about to get ALOT harder, in terms of quality of opponent.....and unless we are facing a QB who is as equally bad as Case, it is going to be hard to scratch out wins with him.

 

[Douglar]

Here's an old writeup from 2018 on Keenum-- That curiously compares him with Mayfield

Broncos Film Room: Case Keenum is not who you think he is - DNVR Sports

With the Denver Broncos signing their quarterback of the 2018 free agency in Case Keenum we dug in deep on the film to tell you all you need to know about the new signal-caller in town.

thednvr.com

Strengths

• the first thing that stands out is Keenum’s eye manipulation. ... He regularly netted chunk plays with the Minnesota Vikings on deep rainbows to his two talented outside receivers, while looking off the safety before letting it rip.
• Keenum excelled ... throwing on the run. Whether it be on designed bootlegs or on scrambles with pressure bearing down, the QB was able to get outside and make good throws.
• Keenum’s shown himself to be clutch on third down, too, where he was the fifth most accurate QB in the NFL, converting 45 percent of his throws for first downs.
• He was also fantastic in the red zone, where his 17-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio was really impressive

Weaknesses

• His arm strength is average at best per NFL standards, as he doesn’t show the zip or power to squeeze throws in traffic.
• He’s also a small-framed QB at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds and is an average athlete who won’t be able to escape pressure the way elite players at the position like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers can.
• these limitations show up is when Keenum is caught off balance under pressure, where he’ll force throws and get himself in trouble.
• His footwork can be inconsistent, and he needs to be more conservative picking his spots and knowing when to throw the ball away
• His limited zip shows itself in the red zone ... he also “only” completed 51 percent of his passes ... succeeding more thanks to his ability to process information quickly and throw with touch rather than power.

In conclusion

• he’s not a franchise quarterback with elite talent ... Keenum’s a system QB
• While similar to Baker Mayfield in style and stature, Mayfield has superior arm strength and athletic tools

 

[Douglar]

The problem isn't that Case can't produce sort of average QB play......he can. The problem is that it is his ceiling at this point.

.....

So the scheme is carrying us for sure.......but the schedule is about to get ALOT harder, in terms of quality of opponent.....and unless we are facing a QB who is as equally bad as Case, it is going to be hard to scratch out wins with him.

Yes, Browns definitely need Keenum to play his best until Mayfield comes back, for sure.

But I'm not so sure it's going to get any harder than back to back Chargers & Cardinals.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Yes, Browns definitely need Keenum to play his best until Mayfield comes back, for sure.

But I'm not so sure it's going to get any harder than back to back Chargers & Cardinals.

DVOA defensive ranks:

Steelers - 9
Bengals - 5
Patriots - 11
Lions - 27
Ravens - 14
Ravens - 14
Raiders - 15
Packers - 23
Steelers - 9
Bengals - 5

So the Browns are facing 3 straight defenses in the top 1/3rd of the league.

Arizona's D was tough.......but the Chargers are currently 19th in Def-DVOA.

This next stretch is definitely the toughest of the season for the offense, considering personnel, injuries, etc.

We really need to hope we get bad QB play from Ben and Mac.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Next 3 maybe look more ominous when you consider:

Rush DVOA ranks:

Steelers - #7
Bengals - #4
Patriots - #9

3 top 9 rush defenses are likely to put even more pressure on Case.

Arizona was #8 in Rush DVOA as a comparison.

The other 6 teams we have played thus far, in Rush DVOA:

Broncos - #20
Bears - #23
Vikings - #28
Texans - #29
Chiefs - #31
Chargers - #32

 

[MattyFos.]

Next 3 maybe look more ominous when you consider:

Rush DVOA ranks:

Steelers - #7
Bengals - #4
Patriots - #9

3 top 9 rush defenses are likely to put even more pressure on Case.

Arizona was #8 in Rush DVOA as a comparison.

The other 6 teams we have played thus far, in Rush DVOA:

Broncos - #20
Bears - #23
Vikings - #28
Texans - #29
Chiefs - #31
Chargers - #32

From my perspective the only thing that can hamper our run game is ourselves. We can get what we want when we want it on the ground unless we go down a few scores.

 

[I'mWithDan]

From my perspective the only thing that can hamper our run game is ourselves. We can get what we want when we want it on the ground unless we go down a few scores.

My concern would more be that we are facing teams that are already good against the run......just with typical box numbers......and those teams are likely to do something similar to what AZ did and commit an additional defender.

Unless we are 100% healthy across the board, I don't see us having much success against good run defenses that commit 8 box defenders. So that inevitably means Case will need to throw more. The more Case throws, the worse the results are generally going to be.

Will be interested to see how Stefanski tries to combat this.