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The Gabriel Arias Thread

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jmilo

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Hey guys, I didn't see an Arias thread. If I shouldn't have made this, let me know.

I really like Arias's potential and profile. He looks electric in the field, and his power is awesome.

But, does anyone else just get a weird feeling when he swings this year? It seems like his bat is moving really slowly, and he's sort of muscling pitches rather than them naturally moving from the impact of the ball on the bat.

I know it sounds crazy and I'm not sure I'm describing it correctly, but it just looks unnatural to me and I can't help shake the feeling that it's unsustainable.
 
jmilo said:
Hey guys, I didn't see an Arias thread. If I shouldn't have made this, let me know.

I really like Arias's potential and profile. He looks electric in the field, and his power is awesome.

But, does anyone else just get a weird feeling when he swings this year? It seems like his bat is moving really slowly, and he's sort of muscling pitches rather than them naturally moving from the impact of the ball on the bat.

I know it sounds crazy and I'm not sure I'm describing it correctly, but it just looks unnatural to me and I can't help shake the feeling that it's unsustainable.
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IMO, what you (and I) are seeing to my untrained eye is an extremely concentrated effort to make make sure the ball goes into the air, not whacked into the ground.
 
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Criznit said:
IMO, what you (and I) are seeing to my untrained eye is an extremely concentrated attempt to make make sure the ball goes into the air, not whacked into the ground.
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That makes sense.

I was thinking it might be more of a "keep your hands back" sort of thing.
 
Not surprisingly, his EV is down and his LA is up. xwOBA (.303) is almost exactly equal to last year (.304). A lot of this has to do with way less walks, which match with his peripheral aggressiveness (way higher chase%).

But if this is him just getting started with mechanical adjustments then there can be some room for building off that.

Re: the chase%, is there some sort of "Cleveland method" that Valaika teaches? Never let a hittable pitch go by, dammit! It feels like every year hitters stay in Cleveland they become more aggressive, from Arias to Jose to Kwan. Gimenez hasn't seen an uptrend but he is more aggressive than he was with the Mets.
 
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In 40 PAs Arias has looked good, no doubt.

282/787 slash...128 OPS+...30% K.

But we've seen this before.

Aug 22 - Sep 8 last year...

65 PA...286/784...28% K

May 18 - Jun 3rd last year....

49 PA...293/994...16% K

Sep 2022....

37 PA...250/881....22% K

Its the in between that doesn't get considered, which has led to career numbers...

442 PA...214/645...80 OPS+...32% K.

Ride him while he is hot.
 
#teamrocchio

Love that Arias has been doing some hitting.

Rocchio looks like the better defender to me (at SS), even though I wish he had Arias' arm and some of his bat power.

#sniffthejock
 
Otsego Mar said:
In your opinion....in my opinion, he is.

Good day, sir.
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A few years ago, Rocchio was known as an elite prospect defensively. The last couple years, the scouting reports have been more negative about his defense.

Too early to know about his defense this year, but advanced stats don’t like him so far. Hopefully that changes.

Arias was rated as elite defender at SS last year.
 
Arias with .978 fld% and 4 errors compared to Rocchio's .967 fld% with 4 errors. Arias' 4 errors come in 179 chances to Rocchio's 56. The difference in arm strength was already mentioned. There's more, but that's enough to support what I said.

I think it's pretty obvious that Rocchio is also a good defensive SS and if Arias' versatility is beneficial then by all means let it continue. It's just my opinion that Rocchio should not be getting more AB than Arias and Arias would not be sitting the bench regularly while Rocchio is playing.
 
There's a 130 point BABIP gap between the two right now and they still they have the same OBP.

Arias won't survive with a sub 300 OBP, it's as easy as that. It's bad enough he'll struggle to hit 220, but every low BA/power bat at least takes his walks to have a decent OBP. I can't think of a good ML player who has a sub 300 OBP.

It's still an approach problem with Arias. I just don't see any plan or development. And when he tries to implement a plan, he obviously is hampered by it and reverts back to see ball hit ball.

With Rocchio, you can see selectivity. He's not passive, he swings and misses too, but you can see he has a plan at the plate. He works counts, takes his walks. The Statcast data is much improved too. In terms of development, he's taking the right steps.

I don't see much development with Arias, he's still the guy he was last year, alternating ice cold with scorching hot. His best ABs was when he ambushed a pitch early in the count left in the zone. On one hand, it's good he crushed those, otoh it's not a sustainable approach.
My favorite Arias AB was the walk he worked after he hit two XBH in that game in Boston. He was comfortable in the box and didn't chase. He needs to get there more consistently.
 
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