Tito’s farewell season

[Steve_424]

A lot of people won’t agree with this, but I don't think it’s out of line to suggest the 2022 Guardians won fewer games than they could have won based on some of Francona’s decisions, particularly when it came to the lineup.

Namely batting a 106 OPS+ guy 2nd and a 142 OPS+ guy 6th/7th all year and refusing to platoon or even pitch hit LHB who struggled badly against LHP last year.

Now I get that the latter had positive impacts in 2023 specifically for certain guys (Josh Naylor primarily), but the point is optimal decisions weren’t always made last year.

Just because they were expected to win like 82 and won 92 doesn’t mean Francona did the best possible job he could do. It’s possible to both overachieve and still not overachieve as much as you could have if that makes sense.

I was one of the one's angry that Josh Naylor kept facing LHP and it turned out Tito knew more than me, because Naylor grew from a platoon bat to a legit all-star-caliber player because they stuck with him and believed in him.

 

[CBBI]

I was one of the one's angry that Josh Naylor kept facing LHP and it turned out Tito knew more than me, because Naylor grew from a platoon bat to a legit all-star-caliber player because they stuck with him and believed in him.

But you do agree that had they been more aggressive with not using Naylor last year against LHP that it would have benefitted the 2022 Guardians significantly, yes?

I understand that it paid off in the long-run, but we’re also talking about the short-run.

 

[Steve_424]

But you do agree that had they been more aggressive with not using Naylor last year against LHP that it would have benefitted the 2022 Guardians significantly, yes?

I understand that it paid off in the long-run, but we’re also talking about the short-run.

I think sometimes we as fans can't see the bigger picture until it's complete. If that did indeed sacrifice a few regular season games and the result was him growing into a legit all-star, it was a good decision.

 

[Cassity14]

Do you think he became a worse manager from 2022 to 2023?

I think his performance has worsened.

If fans are going to give credit for how well the team played last year (I certainly do), then he's got to receive a share of the blame for nearly every player being worse this season, sans Naylor. They've been worse as a team from top to bottom, and for much of the year, ran back the same squad.

The other thing that I'm willing to mention in all of this, despite it not being his *fault*, is that Tito's health has a very significant impact on his performance, and thus, the team's. He can't make it through a whole season without missing a lot of time anymore, and that does matter, especially for a guy whose calling card was getting the most out of his talent over the grueling marathon of an MLB season.

It's time. It doesn't change how grateful I am for how great he's been, but rather amplifies it. He and the organization are doing this the right way.

 

[Urban]

But you do agree that had they been more aggressive with not using Naylor last year against LHP that it would have benefitted the 2022 Guardians significantly, yes?

I understand that it paid off in the long-run, but we’re also talking about the short-run.

Sure, in a vacuum we see Josh Naylor gave really poor production (55 wRC+) for the Guardians in 127 PA vs. LHP in 2022. Give those PA to any RHB and that's not a high bar to clear.

But isn't it reasonable to think Naylor's numbers vs. RHP might also he worse if he's now being pulled from the lineup for LHP- both from a routine and psychological perspective?

That argument seems way too moving pieces on a chess board / video game simulation assuming that the end results can only be positive



Also for what's it's worth, in the "we have too many LHH arguments", I'm not quite ready to lump Naylor into the "not worried about him vs. LHP" camp like I am with Gimenez and Kwan. He was great this year vs. LHP but I'm still not totally sold until he can do it for another year.

 

[Criznit]

Carlos Santana was in Kansas City in 2021

I think there has to be a better example of Tito's "stubbornness" than batting a notoriously slow starter in the 4 hole in a shortened 60-game season coming off the best season of his career rather than moving him to the 5 hole

Sorry 2020...

feel free to crunch his numbers from that year against other cleanup hitters in the last 100 years. Or you can search for my posts, I took a dive and it wasn't pretty.

Don't agree with ya, think it's a perfect example.

 

[Steve_424]

I think his performance has worsened.

If fans are going to give credit for how well the team played last year (I certainly do), then he's got to receive a share of the blame for nearly every player being worse this season, sans Naylor. They've been worse as a team from top to bottom, and for much of the year, ran back the same squad.

The other thing that I'm willing to mention in all of this, despite it not being his *fault*, is that Tito's health has a very significant impact on his performance, and thus, the team's. He can't make it through a whole season without missing a lot of time anymore, and that does matter, especially for a guy whose calling card was getting the most out of his talent over the grueling marathon of an MLB season.

It's time. It doesn't change how grateful I am for how great he's been, but rather amplifies it. He and the organization are doing this the right way.

I think it was a flawed roster from the start that had two FA signings that didn't work out, and also lost 3 of its 4 playoff starters from a year ago (and traded the 4th away). The front office failed miserably last winter + we've had awful injury luck and we're seeing that play out. No manager in the history of baseball would have had a winner with this roster (including injuries).

Tito didn't change his strategies or clubhouse management from a year ago - we're just not very good. It's easy to point at the manager as the problem, that is unless we have a very large sample size (including last season) of teams under his leadership almost always being winning teams.

 

[Steve_424]

But you do agree that had they been more aggressive with not using Naylor last year against LHP that it would have benefitted the 2022 Guardians significantly, yes?

I understand that it paid off in the long-run, but we’re also talking about the short-run.

Who would you have hit in his place in 2022 that would've had a great enough impact in the standings that it would be more important than his being a legitimate all-star this season because they stuck with him?

 

[BimboColesHair]

You guys can’t be the same fan base complaining that “we never develop hitters” while also critiquing normal development of a hitter getting in the way of production right now and being in favor of management of a player that delays development in favor of results today.

You guys want developed hitters without experiencing the normal growing pains, which I get, but that’s not how it works.

 

[CBBI]

Who would you have hit in his place in 2022 that would've had a great enough impact in the standings that it would be more important than his being a legitimate all-star this season because they stuck with him?

But you also have the benefit of hindsight when you say this.

At the time no one could have reasonably predicted Naylor would go from one of the very worst regular hitters in the league against LHP to a more than acceptable one in one offseason.

 

[Cassity14]

I think it was a flawed roster from the start that had two FA signings that didn't work out, and also lost 3 of its 4 playoff starters from a year ago (and traded the 4th away). The front office failed miserably last winter + we've had awful injury luck and we're seeing that play out. No manager in the history of baseball would have had a winner with this roster (including injuries).

Tito didn't change his strategies or clubhouse management from a year ago - we're just not very good. It's easy to point at the manager as the problem, that is unless we have a very large sample size (including last season) of teams under his leadership almost always being winning teams.

Like I said originally, we can agree to disagree.

 

[Benway]

I've never had a chance to meet Tito, but a friend of mine waited on him in a downtown short-lived Mexican cantina. He was sitting at the bar eating his burrito when another patron sat down to chat. Tito greeted him heartily and prefaced their conversation with "Hey, just to let you know, we can talk about anything you like; anything except baseball!"

 

[Steve_424]

But you also have the benefit of hindsight when you say this.

At the time no one could have reasonably predicted Naylor would go from one of the very worst regular hitters in the league against LHP to a more than acceptable one in one offseason.

The people who see him every day and know him better than anyone else - especially a HOF manager and good front office - can absolutely predict that. It's what they do in player evalulation/development.

 

[Urban]

Sorry 2020...

feel free to crunch his numbers from that year against other cleanup hitters in the last 100 years. Or you can search for my posts, I took a dive and it wasn't pretty.

Don't agree with ya, think it's a perfect example.

I crunched the numbers of his splits with RISP in 2020 vs. the guy who hit below him, the only viable option in the lineup to take the cleanup spot

Santana w/ RISP, 2020
72 PA
17 H, 27 RBI
.283 / .389 / .633
15.3% BB to 19.4% K
169 wRC+

Reyes w/ RISP:
54 PA
10 H, 20 RBI
.238 / .315 / .405
13% BB to 25.9% K
89 wRC+


The "perfect example" is definitely Amed in the 2 hole over Andres in the 6/7 hole last season.

 

[Urban]

The people who see him every day and know him better than anyone else - especially a HOF manager and good front office - can absolutely predict that. It's what they do in player evalulation/development.

Don't be ridiculous no one could have reasonably predicted this!