"Wages of Wins" on Shaq and Z

[kovanovich]

Just came across this post from Wages of Wins (dated Dec. 10th, prior to the Portland and OKC games). Here's the link and a few key paragraphs:


http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/12/10/

.....Before getting to Shaq, let’s talk about Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Last year, Ilgauskas posted a 0.093 WP48 [a mark very close to average]. This season – at the age of 34 – Ilgauskas is posting a -0.051 WP48. Yes, Ilgauskas is now a 41 year-old Kareem. Consequently, Ilgauskas is on pace to produce 5.5 fewer wins than what his performance last year would suggest.

For much of his career, Ilgauskas has been an above average (i.e. WP48 in excess of 0.100) but not outstanding performer (i.e. WP48 less than 0.200). As noted above, though, Shaq has often been amazing. And even as age has taken its toll, he has still maintained an above average WP48 mark.

At least, until the 2009-10 season began. Shaq’s WP48 mark this season has only been 0.017. So at the age of 37, Shaq is a bit worse than the 40-year old Kareem....

 

[Randolphkeys]

Here is the real story: Z is coming off the bench for the first time in his career, Shaq went through a personal problem when his wife decided to divorce him -thus becoming the third degree Tiger Woods- and Z became a starter again. Suddenly, with some level of consistency returning, Z found his groove. Sure, he isn't the same post presence he once was, but be fair in explaining why his game has dropped and why it is on an upswing.

Why can't some statisticians dig a little deeper than an algebraic formula to find answers? Simply saying that Z is a 41 year old Kareem quantitatively without any qualatative explanation is an absurd waste of time for the reader.

 

[kj1]

how'd Z look tonight? games like tonight have been more typical of his play over the season so far than that brief stretch of 5 games where he played well...

 

[MYoung23]

how'd Z look tonight? games like tonight have been more typical of his play over the season so far than that brief stretch of 5 games where he played well...

He got 1 shot a quarter, none of them closer than 17 feet, and spent the entire game setting picks 20-25 feet from the basket.

Other than that he is shooting around 50% from the field in December.

I'm sick of this whole topic. Ive been on message boards for about 10 years and have spent the majority of them having to debunk people who don't know the game who bitch about Z for one thing or another year after year.

 

[Douglar]

Why can't some statisticians dig a little deeper than an algebraic formula to find answers?

When you go past the formulas, you stop being a statistician and you start becoming a TNT talking head opinion blabberer.

 

[DougHeil]

This topic continues to make me sick. How many different ways can this be brought up about the same thing?

 

[Lyuokdea]

The problem is that the insight is still true...if maybe not for the reasons that everybody goes through.

It's very possible that Z decides to retire at the end of this season, and that Shaq decides to leave.

If that happens the Cavs are under the salary cap by less than the MLE, and suddenly have no true centers. Worse, Lebron gets to see that mess and then decide whether he wants to stay or not.

Thus, the only way to avoid this nuclear option scenario, is to trade one of the two before the trade deadline this season....so we almost have to do it, like it or not.

EDIT: I guess the one other option is to give Wally a big S&T contract....that would be much more expensive to the team, so Gilbert would have to think it was worth the $20 million or so to keep Z and Shaq together.

~Lyuokdea

 

[Pioneer10]

I think people are taking this Shaq "taking it easy" argument way to far to explain Shaq's performance.

His last full year when a lot of Heat fans began to start complaining about his demeanor he still had a PER of 21.7 in the regular season. In the half season he was traded in he had a PER of 17.7 and TS% of .577. Those numbers are way better then his current PER of 14.6 and TS% of .497. Divorce or no divorce it doesn't change the fact the guy is really having a hard time gettign any lift when he doesn't have a running start or deep post position.

That being said barring any new news like his shoulder actually is still hurt or the like I think the Cavs are just going to adjust there expectations for Shaq a bit. We don't need Shaq to win 66 games (we already did that) we need him to be a threat and provide post defense against just a few teams: Howard and Bynum come to mind. So even though he isn't the Shaq of old, he's still valuable just use him better. Get him the ball closer to the basket and don't try to forcefeed it him when he's not getting good position. Instead use his presence to clean up the offensive glass and be a finisher off drives. Lebron does this but hopefully guys like Mo will understand that by attacking the basket you're going to get easy buckets feeding Shaq off the rotation

 

[cavfanintexas]

how'd Z look tonight? games like tonight have been more typical of his play over the season so far than that brief stretch of 5 games where he played well...

the only thing that really counts is Z help the Cavs win games, that is it, and that is all that counts.

 

[jim jim]

Here is what I noticed about Z this year. At home he seems to be able to shot the ball, when on the road, he forgets to take his shot with him. I would be willing to bet if you take home games only he is probably pretty close to last years numbers. I am not going to look it up, but I have watched every game and I think about it every road game, and I don't seem to cuss at Z so much at home.

Shaq is another one, he does not seem to play better at home or on the road, some nights he gets a few buckets others he throws up garbage and does nothing. Not sure what the trigger is yet. I think it does have something to do with how early in the game you get him involved. It seems if he gets touches early he plays better.

I am more concerned with the inconsistent play of JJ, and AV. I would like to see them be a little more consistent. I don't think it has much to do with them, and more to do with how certain teams defend them, and MB's inability to make adjustments against teams that guard them well. The other one I would like to see more consistent is Delonte, he had a couple good games but to me he seems to be pressing to much and needs to slow down and let it come to him.

Just my two cents and they are only worth a penny.

 

[Douglar]

It's very possible that Z decides to retire at the end of this season, and that Shaq decides to leave.

If that happens the Cavs are under the salary cap by less than the MLE, and suddenly have no true centers. Worse, Lebron gets to see that mess and then decide whether he wants to stay or not.

There is a backup plan. Sasha Kaun has a buyout next summer. He's not perfect, but he's a decent compliment to Varejao for the times the Cavs need a muscular defensive post presence.

This is a viable depth chart, because it has a lot of young afordable talent, expiring contracts and is trade or a M.I.P. sleeper away from being a contender.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 216pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=288><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; WIDTH: 72pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20 width=96>Small guard</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Williams</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Gibson</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Draft</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Tall Guard</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Parker</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>West</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Eyenga</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Small Forward</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Lebron</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Moon</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Green</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Forward</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Hickson</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Powe</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Jackson</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Center</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Varejao</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Kaun</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Draft </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Three6Pavia]

We've got a good mix of upcoming talent and experienced veterans. Ferry is working on what we're hoping is a perennial contender...

 

[Mazer]

This is a viable depth chart, because it has a lot of young afordable talent, expiring contracts and is trade or a M.I.P. sleeper away from being a contender.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 216pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=288><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 72pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3510" width=96><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=3 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; WIDTH: 72pt; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20 width=96>Small guard</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Williams</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Gibson</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64 width=64>Draft</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Tall Guard</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Parker</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>West</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Eyenga</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Small Forward</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Lebron</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Moon</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Green</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Forward</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Hickson</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Powe</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Jackson</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 15pt" height=20><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #c5d9f1; HEIGHT: 15pt; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl63 height=20>Center</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Varejao</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Kaun</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid" class=xl64>Draft </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Ugh. Does anybody else look at that frontcourt and get a queasy feeling in their stomach? That's not even average quality much less capable of competing against an LA or Orlando.

I hope we can trade Z's contract into something serviceable at the deadline or we are could be in desperately bad shape next year.

 

[Douglar]

Ugh. Does anybody else look at that frontcourt and get a queasy feeling in their stomach? That's not even average quality much less capable of competing against an LA or Orlando.

I think you misunderstood. I was saying that it is OK because there is enough young talent where there decent chance at someone outperforming expectations. And when you got young talent on affordable contracts, there are also trade possibilities for building block type guys.

And I didn't even mention Delonte's very tradeable contract.

 

[rabman_gold]

Here is what I noticed about Z this year. At home he seems to be able to shot the ball, when on the road, he forgets to take his shot with him. I would be willing to bet if you take home games only he is probably pretty close to last years numbers. I am not going to look it up, but I have watched every game and I think about it every road game, and I don't seem to cuss at Z so much at home.

Now what good does it do to only go by visual memory . Nah, I'm just screwing around. Here's what you were looking for:

Splits (2009-2010), Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Home Vs. Away:

|Games|MPG|FGA|FG%|FTA|FT%|PPG|RPG|BPG
Home|10|23.7|7.6|47.4%|1.8|77.8%|8.7|5.3|1.10
Away|13|22.5|7.1|34.8%|1.4|68.4%|5.9|6.5|0.92

Yep, it seems Z's shot still exists, but right now is more effective at home (at least he's more aggressive on the road, like rebounding). Isn't that the case with MOST players in the NBA, though?

As for Douglar's case study, I'm hard pressed to worry about anything else except just getting LeBron back. If Shaq can't step up but still wants to play another year, I'm sure we can offer something reasonable, but we can always pull off a trade or such for that big man option. Kobe demanded a big man in a way, so LeBron should probably ask the front office for a big man too. Once you get big man fever, nothing can stop it (no, not really).

There's no wrong direction for us at this point, so let's just keep watching what Ferry does. He's done a pretty good job and we should continue to appreciate two 7 footers with any offensive skills, with or without age.