The Hawks have lost games to Boston, Indiana, Philly, New York, Miami, and OKC, so they are not beating the best teams but they are taking care of business against the weaker ones. They have lost 5 of their last 8 with two of the three wins against weak sisters Detroit and Washington and the other against 8-8 Brooklyn.
The Hawks took a big hit last week as starting forward Jalen Johnson sustained a wrist fracture and will be out several weeks. The 6’8” Johnson is one of the top forwards in the game averaging 14.1 points, 7.3 rebounds, and ranking in the top 5% at his position in points per shot attempt. He’s hitting 59.5% overall and a blistering 42% on 3’s. He is also the Hawks' top defender; they are nearly 7 points better defensively with him on the floor. Johnson will also miss the rematch in a couple of weeks. This injury came at a perfect time for the Cavs.
The Hawks are led by All-Star PG Trae Young who averages 26.5 points and 10.4 assists. Young excels at drawing fouls as he leads the Hawks with 9.2 free throw attempts per game (the next highest is at 3.4). He throws his body into the defender and gets the call time after time. He gets into the paint, launches his body at the nearest defender, and throws up the shot after. However, he is not that efficient, shooting 40.2% overall and 36.5% on 3’s. But he is in the top 4% of point guards in assists per usage ratio.
SG Dejounte Murray is having a nice season with a 20.0 scoring average at 45% and 37% shooting. SG Bogdan Bogdanovic is averaging 15.8 points off the bench at 47% and 39%. He’s a very accurate outside shooter who can’t be left alone at the 3-point line. Forwards DeAndre Hunter and Saddiq Bey average 14.4 and 11.9 points with solid shooting percentages. Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu split the center duties with about 24 minutes each.
The Hawks are 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 123.6 ppg. They shoot 48% overall and 37.2% from deep. In addition to excellent shooting they do a great job on the offensive glass, ranking 3rd in that category. The Cavs are weak on the defensive glass, so this is a bad matchup and the Cavs will need to focus on hitting the defensive glass, including Mitchell, LeVert, and Strus. Strus and Mitchell are excellent defensive rebounders, ranking in the 85th and 70th percentiles at their positions, respectively. They need to hit the glass tonight and help out the bigs.
The Hawks lead the NBA in fast break points per game and the Cavs are 7th, so we should see a lot of racing up and down the court in this one. It should be a fun game to watch.
The Hawks are 8th in 3-point percentage and 10th in 3’s attempted per game, so shooting the 3 is a big part of their game. Running the floor, shooting 3’s, and crashing the offensive glass is what they do. They play at a fast pace, ranking 2nd in field goal attempts per game. They are only 20th in assists, so there’s a fair amount of one-on-one, starting with Young. They are 6th in free throw attempts per play, thanks to Young. They simply try to outrun and outscore you.
The Hawks are 25th in scoring defense, so defensive is not their thing. They are 26th in points allowed in the paint and in defensive rebound percentage. They are very vulnerable in the paint and also on putbacks so I expect the Cavs to attack the rim relentlessly and to crash the glass. The Hawks aren't big up front to lobs to Allen and Mobley should be very effective.
The Hawks are third worst in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage and with Jalen Johnson out they are probably the worst in the NBA at defending the 2-point shot and defending the paint. I expect Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert will be taking it to the rim all night long and finishing with layups, floaters, or lobs. But be careful on kickouts to the corner as the Hawks love to lurk in the passing lanes.
Johnson is their leading defensive rebounder at 5.9 boards per game, so with Johnson out the Cavs should feast on the offensive glass. The Hawks allow a 30% offensive rebound rate when they force missed shots; only three teams are worse. With their best defensive rebounder out they are even more vulnerable in this area. There could be a ton of offensive rebounds on both ends of the court.
By committing to the offensive glass the Hawks leave themselves open for transition attacks and in fact are 24th in fast break points allowed. The Cavs are 7th in points scored off the break, so the Cavs will be running in transition as much as possible and they should have success. Isaac Okoro could do well against this team.
The one thing the Hawks do well on defense is steals where they rank 5th in steals per play. I suspect they know they suck defensively so they might as well gamble for steals. The Cavs need to be aware of them jumping the passing lanes and be careful with the ball.
Atlanta is below average defending 3’s so that is not a bad option, either, although I think the first choice should always be dribble penetration or going inside to Allen or Mobley. Capela and Okongwu are 6’10” but they don't play at the same time and they have nobody else in the rotation over 6’8”. The Cavs should be looking to force switches and then lob it inside to Mobley or Allen posting up a wing or a guard.
This could be a high scoring shootout with the ball moving quickly up and down the floor. On Sunday the Hawks only scored 103 against Boston (the #4 scoring defense). But in their previous three games they scored 152, 147, and 136. This should be a pretty entertaining game with all the fast breaking and offensive boards. Dean Wade and Ty Jerome are still out according to Chris Fedor this morning.
Injury Report
Cleveland
Ty Jerome - OUT (right ankle sprain)
Dean Wade - OUT (ankle)
Atlanta
Kobe Burkin - OUT (thumb)
Mouhamed Gueye - OUT (back)
Jalen Johnson - OUT (distal radius)