The Nuggets are missing their starting point guard, Jamal Murray, who averages 16.3 points and 7.4 assists. The Nuggets are 6-1 when he plays and 3-2 when he's out. The backup point is Reggie Jackson, age 33, who has been averaging 29 minutes a game since Murray has been out. He's still a good player, averaging 14.6 ppg as a starter, but they don't play him more than 32 minutes. They don't have another PG listed on their roster.
Obviously Nikola Jokic is their superstar and NBA MVP, and he's doing his thing with a line of 30/14/9. SF Michael Porter Jr averages 16.4 ppg and 8.2 rebounds. But obviously they miss Murray as you can see by the W-L when he plays and when he doesn't.
SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) leads the Nuggets in 3-point accuracy at 45.5% so they need to be aware of him. Murray is at 43.8% but he's out. After that their top 3-point shooter in the rotation is Porter at 35.2%. If I were the Cavs I might double Jokic and make him pass it out to the perimeter, but make sure I have someone on KCP. Make the Nuggets shoot 3's with guys who are at 35% or under.
Jokic is shooting 57.3% from the field and 30% on 3's, so he's clearly much more dangerous on 2-point shots. The best approach, in my opinion, is to double him with Allen and Mobley or Wade and make him pass the ball out, then hope their 3-point shooters have an off night.
As a team the Nuggets are shooting just 29.6% on 3's on the road (must be the heavier air that throws them off). Jokic is at 23%, Gordon 11%, and Porter 33%. Only KCP at 41.2% is shooting 3's well on the road. I would double Jokic, make him give up the ball, and keep somebody on KCP at all times on the perimeter.
The Nuggets are averaging 118 ppg at home and just under 108 on the road, so with Murray out and playing on the road they are much more beatable. If we had Mitchell I would actually be pretty confident but without that 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists the Cavs will have to play really well to steal a win.
Unfortunately, Donovan Mitchell and Isaac Okoro are out so both teams are missing one of their main point producers. The Nuggets are the better team and they were off Saturday so I expect them to prevail unless the Cavaliers play their best game of the season.
Darius Garland is coming off a nice game in the win over Detroit and is going against a 33-year-old. He says nobody can guard him so we'll see. That should be an interesting matchup.
The Cavs will probably put Dean Wade on Porter Jr so it will be interesting to see if Wade can limit his output. PF Aaron Gordon, averaging 14 and 7, matches up with Evan Mobley and of course Jarrett Allen will be tasked with keeping Jokic from taking over the game, with some help from Mobley most likely.
It should be an interesting game. It's just too match Mitchell isn't available because if he was I think the Cavs would have a decent chance at stealing a win. As it stands the Nuggets lost their last two road games to 6-4 Houston and 6-6 New Orleans so if the Cavs bring their A game this could be another close one.
Injury report
Cleveland:
Ty Jerome — OUT (Right Ankle Sprain)
Donovan Mitchell — OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
Isaiah Mobley — OUT (G League Two-Way Assignment)
Isaac Okoro — OUT (Left Knee Injury Management)
Ricky Rubio — OUT (Not With Team)
Denver:
Vlatko Čančar — OUT (Left Knee Surgery)
Jamal Murray — OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)
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