The Cavs stay home after a day off to face the Indiana Pacers, who they are leading by one game in the standings. A Cavs’ loss would give these teams identical won-loss records but the Pacers would move ahead of the Cavs in the playoff seeding based on winning the season series 3-1.
For home court advantage in the first round a win tonight is imperative. The Pacers will almost certainly beat Atlanta at home in their final game.
The Pacers are on a roll, having won 8 of 11, including wins over OKC, the Lakers, and Golden State. The Pacers are 21-19 on the road. On March 18 they lost to the Cavaliers at home 108-103 despite the Cavs not having Mitchell, Mobley, Wade, and Strus. Niang, Okoro, and LeVert started for the Cavs with Morris, TT, and Merrill coming off the bench. The Cavs still managed to hold the Pacers to 103 points, 20 lower than their average.
That had to be one of the more surprising wins of the year. The Pacers were fully healthy other than for Benedict Mathurin, who is out for the year. They are reporting no injuries for tonight other than Mathurin.
The Cavs are finally getting healthy as Mitchell scored 29 on Monday, Strus and Okoro have been back for a few games, and Craig Porter Jr made an appearance. Dean Wade is still out, however, and that is a big problem since we only have Niang and Marcus Morris Sr to back up Mobley unless they go small with Okoro at power forward.
The Pacers are the most unbalanced team in the NBA, ranking 1st in scoring and 28th in scoring defense. They play extreme uptempo, ranking 2nd in pace, 1st in field goal attempts per game, 4th in fast break points, and 2nd in assists per possession. They rank 1st in points in the paint. Get ready to run when you play the Pacers.
They are 21st in 3-point rate so they prefer to attack the rim. They are 1st in 2-point percentage - all that fast breaking and passing results in lots of layups. Despite all the passing and the fast pace they commit few turnovers, ranking 4th lowest in turnovers per possession. Just a great offensive team - best in the NBA by over two points per game.
That being said, in March the Cavs held them to 103 points without Mobley and with Niang and Morris playing a combined 53 minutes. The Pacers were 9-for-38 from deep. Haliburton was 4-for-14 overall and 1-for-9 on 3’s. That game might have been a fluke as the Pacers scored 121 and 125 against the Cavs in the first week of the season, but their personnel was a little different then.
Defensively the Pacers are last in preventing points in the paint, so the Cavs should take it inside. Opponents shoot fewer 3’s against the Pacers than any other team, obviously because they think they can get to the rim and score. The Pacers rank 25th in opponents’ 2-point percentage and 14th in 3-point percentage, so getting into the paint is what their opponents prefer to do.
The Pacers are a little below average at forcing missed shots but rank 27th in defensive rebound percentage, possibly because they try to block a lot of shots, so you can get a lot of second chance points. The Cavs need to attack the rim and crash the offensive glass, but be ready to get back on defense if they don’t get the offensive board. The Pacers run at every opportunity.
The last two weeks the Pacers rank 1st in offense and 14th in defense in non-garbage time efficiency. They lead the NBA the last two weeks in point differential at +13.9. The Cavs are a -4.7. You could argue that no team is playing better than the Pacers right now.
However, the Cavs don’t match up badly against this team because the Pacers depend so much on scoring in the paint and the Cavs have a great interior defense. Allen and Mobley combined to block seven shots the last game. If the Pacers are cold from the 3-point line like they were in March, the Cavs can hold them well under their scoring average.
As a team the Pacers shoot 50.5% overall and 37.3% on 3’s. PF Pascal Siakam averages 21 points on 55% shooting. PG Tyrese Haliburton averages 20 points and 11 assists on 48% and 37%. Haliburton started for the All-Star team this year. I’m sure he will be itching to redeem himself after going 4-for-14 in the loss to the Cavs last month.
C Myles Turner averages 17 points and 7 rebounds. He is 7-for-14 on 3's against the Cavs this year so Allen will have to stay out on him. SF Aaron Nesmith averages 12 ppg but likes to play against the Cavs, averaging 16 ppg on 58% and 45% this year. SG Andrew Nembhard averages 9 points at the other guard position.
TJ McConnell and Obi Toppin average 10 points each off the bench.
So there it is. Defensively the Cavs need to defend the paint effectively, get back on defense to prevent easy transition layups, and force the Pacers to shoot contested 3's. In their win last month the Cavs held the Pacers to only 24% on 3’s, so the key is to force them to shoot 3’s and hope they’re off.
The Cavs won that game despite getting outscored 18-4 on fast breaks, taking 11 fewer field goal attempts, and giving up 14 offensive rebounds. The key was being +9 on 3’s and +10 at the free throw line. Allen and LeVert were 15-for-19 from the stripe. LeVert stepped up in Mitchell’s absence for 23 points, 11 assists, and 8 rebounds. He shot 11 free throws as the Pacers could not stay in front of him.
Garland was 5-for-18 with 7 assists and 5 turnovers that night so he needs to play better. This is a big game.
Offensively it’s all about attacking the rim, getting buckets and drawing fouls, and knocking down the 3’s when they are available. The Cavs shot 28 free throws last game. Haliburton and Nesmith ended up with five fouls, so it’s all about attacking the rim as the Pacers are last in points in the paint allowed. They’re also last in opponents’ free throw attempts per play, so they get beat and are forced to hack a lot.
I don’t know if the Cavs can hold them to 103 points again, even getting Mobley, Mitchell, and Strus back. They will probably need to outscore them and JBB thinks the key is a fast pace. This should be a very entertaining game with both teams flying up and down the floor. However, if the Cavs get a second half lead expect them to slow it down so the Pacers can catch up.
Injury report
CLEVELAND
Dean Wade - OUT (knee)
Ty Jerome - OUT (ankle)
Sam Merrill - DOUBTFUL (neck)
INDIANA
Isaiah Jackson - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Benedict Mathurin - OUT (labrum)