After a day off at home the Cavs welcome the Houston Rockets who arrive with a 13-10 record after losing to the Bucks in Milwaukee last night, breaking a five game winning streak. For the second consecutive game the Cavs play an opponent who is on the second night of a back-to-back with travel, although not very far.
The Rockets are 11-1 at home and 2-9 on the road, which is the biggest home/road winning percentage difference in the league. One of their road wins was against 6-18 Memphis. It’s hard to explain how a team can be practically unbeatable at home but can't beat anybody on the road. Do these guys party a lot on the road?
The Rockets have the league's second best scoring defense, allowing 106.1 points per game. They excel at forcing missed shots, ranking 2nd in effective field goal percentage and 3rd in points in the paint. They are not a gambling defense as they rank 27th in steals and 23rd in forcing turnovers. They don’t allow second chance points, ranking 2nd in defensive rebound percentage. They force the missed shot and get the rebound.
You can get a shot up against the Rockets as they rank only 22nd in block percentage and 23rd in turnovers, but making that shot is the challenge. They are 1st in defending 3’s (31.2%) and 8th in opponents’ 2-point percentage, so you’re better off shooting 2’s. The one area where they are deficient is they foul a lot, ranking 28th in opponents’ free throw attempts per play. So the Cavs’ game plan should be to attack the rim and draw fouls while not forcing up contested 3’s.
One really interesting stat is that Houston’s scoring doesn’t vary much between home and away; 111 points per game at home versus 109 away. But the difference in scoring defense is insane; they give up 98 points a game at home against 115 on the road. I heard that defense travels but the Rockets leave theirs at home.
Offensively the Rockets rank 27th in scoring, so this should be a low scoring game where points are tough to come by. The Rockets rank from 23rd to 25th in points in the paint, effective field goal percentage, 2-point percentage, and fast break points. Their offense is more oriented to shooting 3’s but they’re not that good at it, ranking 19th in 3-point percentage. They’re 22nd in offensive rebound percentage, preferring to fall back and prevent fast breaks, where they are best in the NBA by far at 7.4 points per game.
Center Alperen Sengun leads the Rockets in scoring at 19.7 points. He also grabs 9.0 rebounds and dishes out 5.2 assists. Sengun is 6’11”, 243, and is just 21 years old. He’s not a stretch center yet (31% on 3’s), but he’s a good player who’s really coming on in his third season.
SG Jalen Green, who the Rockets selected with the #2 pick in the 2021 draft over Evan Mobley, is averaging 17.8 points but has been inefficient, shooting 41% overall and 33% on 3’s. Veteran PG Fred VanVleet averages 16.4 points and 8.5 assists but is shooting just 38% both from the field and on 3’s. SF Dillon Brooks and PF Jabari Smith Jr average 13.8 and 12.5 points, respectively. None of their reserves are scoring in double figures.
The Rockets have been exceptionally fortunate in terms of injuries; between their five starters they have missed only one game this season.
Houston is 2-1 against Denver and 2-0 against Sacramento, so they can beat strong teams. They beat OKC and Denver earlier this month. But they have been awful on the road and it’s hard to explain why since it’s usually shooting that suffers on the road, but with the Rockets it’s been their defense, which is 17 points per game worse on the road.
Last night they lost at Milwaukee 128-119. Damian Lillard had 39 points for the Bucks. I’m sure the Cavs watched the game and Donovan Mitchell took notes. If a 33-year-old 6’2” point guard like Dame can score 39 on this defense, what will Mitchell do tonight?
I watched the highlights and the Rockets played the 18-7 Bucks very tough in their building. With three minutes to go the Rockets were down by five points, so they had a chance. But then Middleton, Lopez, and Giannis made some very difficult contested jumpers that put the game away. It wasn’t bad defense, it was tremendous shooting by the Bucks.
The Cavaliers put up 127 points against Atlanta Saturday without Garland and Mobley, but they are going from perhaps the league’s worst defensive team to the second best so it will be very interesting to see how the offense functions. The Jalen Green versus Donovan Mitchell matchup will be fun to watch. Assuming Isaac Okoro starts at shooting guard he’ll be guarded by the 6’0” VanVleet, so Okoro should try and drive on him. VanVleet played 39 minutes last night chasing Lillard around so whoever he is guarding should make him work.
The Allen/Sengun matchup will also be interesting as Allen has been playing very well lately and he said JBB challenged him to step up with Mobley out. Sengun is very skilled and has a reliable push shot from the middle of the lane.
The Bucks had a chance to watch the Cavs beat Atlanta without Garland and Mobley so they have a better idea of what the Cavs will try to do offensively with their new lineup.
Injury report
Cleveland
Darius Garland - OUT (face)
Evan Mobley - OUT (knee)
Ty Jerome - OUT (ankle)
Houston
Tari Eason - DAY TO DAY (lower leg)
Ausar Thompson - OUT (illness)
Victor Oladipo - OUT (knee)