The Blazers started 3-3 but have since lost 9 of 11. They are really in a tailspin at the moment, but they did upset 9-6 Indiana on the road two days ago so they are not to be taken lightly. The Blazers are pretty good defensively and held the Pacers, who lead the NBA in scoring, to 110 points, 13 under their average.
The Blazers are 14.1 points better with Brogdan on the floor, so they will definitely be a better team than we saw two weeks ago. They are 11 points better offensively with Brogdan running the offense.
That being said, the Blazers rank last in scoring at 104.8 ppg. As a team they are shooting just 43.4% overall and 32.4% on 3’s. The Cavs held them to 95 points in Portland, but with Brogdon out.
The Blazers rank 29th in both 3-point percentage and 2-point percentage. They don’t shoot the 3 that much (23rd). They’re a selfish bunch, ranking last in assists per possession. They also turn it over a ton, ranking 28th in turnovers per possession. Not much teamwork, a lot of turnovers, and poor shooting adds up to the lowest scoring team in the league.
The one thing they do well is offensive rebounding where they rank 8th. The Cavs need to take care of the defensive glass or they’ll give up a lot of second chance points. The Blazers average 12.1 offensive boards per game with C Deandre Ayton leading the way with 3.3.
The Blazers rank 12th in scoring defense, but I can’t figure out how. They’re 27th in points in the paint, last in fast break points allowed, 29th in opponents’ 3-point and 2-point percentage, and 28th in defensive rebound percentage. They suck at forcing missed shots and also suck at getting the rebound when they do force a miss. The one area they excel defensively is steals, where they rank 4th in steals per possession. They average nearly 9 steals per game. My guess is they gamble for steals knowing that’s their best chance to prevent a bucket.
In the first game Mitchell had 34 points and Mobley 21. Mitchell, Mobley, and Strus were all between +22 and +26 in that game. The Cavs shot 56% from the field but turned it over 17 times, so they only scored 109 points. They also shot only 30% from deep. However, they shot 73.3% on 2’s so their game plan should be obvious - attack the rim and only shoot uncontested 3’s. Ayton averages 32 minutes and their backup center is a 27-year-old rookie who is 6’9” and averages one block every five games. Jerami Grant is their starting “power” forward at 6’7”, 210. They don't have the size up front to defend the rim other than Ayton.
Grant is a good offensive player, averaging 23.4 points. He’s shooting 43% on 3’s so the Cavs need to crowd him on the perimeter. Brogdon is not shooting well (41% and 36%) but he’s an excellent passer. Their third leading scorer, SG Shaedon Sharpe at 16.6 ppg, is hitting just 39% overall and 32% from deep.
This should be an easy win for the Cavs at home against the league’s lowest scoring team. The Blazers rank 29th in defending 2-point shots and the Cavs made 73% of their 2’s last time, so take it to the hole fellas. The keys are to get the ball into the paint, avoid too many turnovers, and control the defensive glass.
Injury report
Cleveland
Dean Wade - OUT (ankle)
Ty Jerome - OUT (ankle)
Portland
Anfernee Simons - OUT (thumb)
Robert Williams - OUT (knee)
Ish Wainright - OUT (knee)
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