As writtern by Wham With the Right Hand
Let’s face it, the Celtics have a lot going for them. The best record in the East this year at 64-18, home court advantage, well-rested, and their top six players have an average of 83 play-off games under their belt.
They beat Miami 4-1 in the first round, although the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler and had a second-year player who averaged under 8 points per game in his spot. They were also starting a rookie.
In the regular season the Celtics were first in offensive rating and second in defensive rating. They outscored opponents by 11.4 points per game; the next closest team was 7.4.
Offensively the Celtics were first in 3-point rate as 47% of their shots were from beyond the arc. They not only took more 3’ s than anybody, they were 2nd in 3-point percentage. They were 28th in points in the paint. So defending the Celtics is all about contesting 3’s. They are not a balanced offense.
The Celtics are the polar opposite of the Magic who led the NBA in percentage of shots at the rim. The Celtics rank 23rd in free throw attempts per possession since they don’t attack the rim as much as other teams.
The Celtics have the lowest turnover percentage in the league. Their formula is simple; commit fewer turnovers and hit more 3’s than their opponent while playing great defense.
The Celtics have one problem, however, and that involves starting center Kristaps Porzingis, who is expected to miss this series with a calf strain. Porzingis is third on the team in scoring, second in rebounds, and first in blocks. He is second in made free throws. He is also third on the team in on/off at +7.3, trailing only Derrick White and Jason Tatum.
The Celtics lead the NBA in blocks per game, but Porzingis has 29% of their blocks, so their rim protection will be affected. Porzingis also shoots 37% on 3’s.
His backup is Al Horford, who is a good player, but he’s 6’9” rather than 7’2” and will be 38 years old in four weeks. Horford averaged 27 minutes a game with 9 points and 6 rebounds. He shot 51% overall and 42% on 3’s. He mainly stands in the corner to draw the opposing big out of the paint so Brown and Tatum can drive. He’s hitting 45% on corner 3’s so he can’t be left alone out there. At his age I don’t know how many minutes he can play effectively.
Their backup center will be journeyman Luke Kornet who averages 5 points in 16 minutes. However, they could put Jason Tatum at center and go small.
I don’t know if Jarrett Allen will play this series, but if he does I love that matchup against Horford and Kornet, although Horford knows all the tricks and is an excellent 3-point shooter so he shouldn't be underestimated.
With Porzingis out all the Celtics’ starters are between 6’4” and 6’9” so if Allen can go the Cavs will have a big height advantage up front. There should be lobs available and post-ups.
Another potential age issue is at point guard where Jrue Holiday turns 34 next month. He can still play, averaging 12.5 points and 4.4 assists on 48% from the field and 43% from deep. You can’t leave him open. But I wonder if he can stay in front of Garland and LeVert. He averaged 33 minutes per game in 69 games this year so he’s in great shape. Against the Heat, however, he shot only 35% and 37%.
Jason Tatum is their star. The 6’8” forward averaged 27 points and 8 rebounds per game on 47% and 38%. He averaged 26 points against the Cavs this year, but they held him to 39% from the field which is very impressive. I assume Okoro will take Brown and Mobley will take Tatum. But that would put Strus on Horford, who would post him up. But Strus did a great job on Franz Wagner, so Horford would be an easier assignment.
Jaylen Brown, their 6’6” small forward, averages 23 ppg on 50% and 35%. PG Derrick White is having a great year at 15 ppg on 46% and 40%. The Celtics simply have great shooters all over the floor, including the bench. Sam Hauser shots 42% on 3’s off the bench, averaging 9 points, and Peyton Pritchard shoots 47% and 38% as the backup point guard, kicking in 9.6 ppg. It will be up to LeVert and Merrill to not let Hauser and Pritchard got hot off the bench.
I think the Celtics will miss Porzingis a lot in this series. In three games against the Cavs he averaged 21 points, 8.3 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks in 32 minutes per game. Tatum and Brown averaged 26 and 23 points against the Cavs; nobody else averaged more than 13.
Here’s the reason for optimism; in the three games these teams played this year the Cavs competed very well, losing by 7 and 9 points and winning by one. The Celtics were totally healthy for every game while the Cavs were missing key players all three games. Let’s break it down.
Game 1 was on Dec. 12. The Cavs played in Orlando the night before and had to fly from Florida to Boston and play the Celtics the next night. The Celtics had been off for three days. In addition to that, Evan Mobley was injured. Everything pointed to the Cavs getting blown out, but they were down 5 points with 2.5 minutes left before losing by 7. Mitchell had 29, Garland 26, and the Cavs were 19-for-45 on 3’s.
Game 2 was two nights later, also in Boston. The Cavs still were without Mobley, but they put up a battle, trailing by four points with five minutes to play. They lost 116-107. Mitchell had 31, LeVert 26, and Garland 19 as the Cavs’ guards were able to score.
Game 3 was on March 5 in Cleveland. Once again the Celtics had everybody while the Cavs were missing Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus. Sam Merrill started and played 30 minutes, scoring 6 points. The Cavs won 105-104 as Dean Wade went nuts and hit 6-for-9 from deep, finishing with 23 points and 8 rebounds.
The Cavs won’t have Wade this series but they will have Mitchell and I think he’ll be good for 23 points. They’ll have Strus, too.
The Cavaliers played three close games against the Celtics in the regular season despite not having Mobley for two games and Mitchell and Strus for the other. The Cavs will have all of them this series while the Celtics will not have Porzingis. You can make an argument that the Celtics will not be as strong and the Cavs will be stronger than when these teams played those close games in the regular season.
If you take those two games the Cavs lost by 7 and 9 points, add Mobley to the Cavs and subtract Porzingis from the Celtics - who wins those games? That's what we're looking at now.
Jarrett Allen will be the wild card because if he can go by Saturday when the series comes to Cleveland the Cavs will have a massive advantage on the glass. This would allow the Cavs’ perimeter defenders to keep switching and contesting the 3, knowing if the Celtics blow by them they will have to contend with Mobley and Allen in the paint.
Donovan Mitchell averaged 30 points in his two games against the Celtics. He’s coming off 50 and 39 against Orlando. With Porzingis out Boston doesn’t have the rim protection they had, so Mitchell should be able to score at the rim if he can get by White and Holiday.
I really want to see whoever Horford is guarding (probably Mobley) setting screens on Mitchell’s defender and forcing a switch. No way the nearly 38-year-old Al Horford stays in front of Donovan.
Garland averaged 20 points and 7 assists against the Celts, shooting 43.5% on 3’s. LeVert averaged 16 ppg on 48% and 40%. All three of the Cavs’ guards were very good offensively against the Celtics this year.
Evan Mobley played just one game, scoring 4 points, but the Cavs won anyway. I can’t believe they beat Boston with Mitchell and Strus out, Merrill and Okoro starting, and Mobley scoring 4 points, but they did. It was mainly defense as they held the Celtics to 42% from the field and 104 points - 16 points under their average. Porzingis had 24 points, 9 rebounds, and swatted 3 shots that game.
For the Cavs to beat the Celtics they need to hold them to around 104 points like they did in Cleveland. With Porzingis out that will be easier.
I really think this series is going to be a lot more competitive than most people think if the regular season is any judge. The Cavs seem to match up better against the Celtics than a lot of teams. The Celtics have never played the Cavs with Mitchell and Mobley both on the floor and they never played them without Porzingis. They will now.
I honestly think that if we had Allen and Wade we would kick their ass.
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