With or Without Garnett, repeat unlikely (Boston Globe!)

[wuck]

Dan Shaugnessy, the longtime Boston sportswriter, came out with an article most of his readers are sure to hate.

This article was posted before the news broke about the extent of KG's injury.

DAN SHAUGHNESSY
With or without Garnett, repeat unlikely
Globe Columnist / April 16, 2009

Last night at the Garden felt like the final day of school.

Remember? It was nonstop recess. No rules. Windows open. Books closed. No more teacher's dirty looks. You could pretty much do anything you wanted. It was just a day to legally complete the school calendar.

Same deal with the Celtics last night. The skeleton crew C's beat the Washington Generals/Wizards, 115-107. Ray Allen got the night off. Paul Pierce got the night off. Kevin Garnett sat out for the 22d time in the last 26 games. It felt almost like a Patriots exhibition game. Good thing it was "fan appreciation night" or there might not have been any stars on the floor.

Allen and Pierce sat on the bench wearing suits that cost more than my car. Pierce addressed the crowd from center court before the game, acknowledging, "It's been a long year, a trying year," then asking for the fans to step up their game in the playoffs. Garnett's only appearance was on the videoboard - the famous footage of him yelling ("AGHHHHHHHHHHHHH") before the starters are introduced.

There weren't a ton of regulars in the stands, either. This was a night to give tickets to the butcher, the baker, and the candlestick maker. A lot of mail carriers and car mechanics were rewarded for years of loyal service.

The real games start Saturday, when the Celtics open a best-of-seven series against the Chicago Bulls. Most of us don't think the Celtics are going to repeat as world champions. Why? Because Garnett (sprained knee) won't be 100 percent and might not be a factor at all if things turn for the worse when he resumes practice today in Waltham.

Two other reasons they won't win: the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Los Angeles Lakers. Both are better than the Celtics. And both have home-court advantage over Boston.

This feels like Cleveland's year just like last year felt like Boston's year. The Cavs have the best record and the best player. They went 39-2 at home. The only team in NBA history to go 40-1 at home was the 1985-86 Celtics. Some of us believe that team was the best in the history of basketball.

The Celtics are good. They won 62 games, which is the same number won by the 1983-84 Celtics; that's the only Larry Bird team that ever beat the Lakers in the Finals. This year's Green started 27-2 and won a franchise-record 19 consecutive games. Late in the season, they successfully wrestled for the second seed and won a ton of games even though they didn't have Garnett, Leon Powe, and a raft of other talents.

"It seemed like we were having a bad year at some points, compared to what we did last year," said Allen, who made 95.2 percent of his free throws this season, shattering a 50-year-old franchise record set by Bill Sharman. "It's been a good year in a lot of ways," said coach Doc Rivers. "Our resolve has stuck out to me. Everybody said we were going to be the third seed. Well, we won 10 of 11 and we're the second seed.

"The toughest part of this year was the intensity of our opposition, the way they came at us, especially on the road. And not only the teams - the crowds. They all wanted to knock off the champs, and that was exhausting."

Ultimately, of course, the thing that matters most is Garnett. He hurt his knee in the first game after the All-Star break and was rendered useless for the rest of the regular season. He came back once, but the Celtics kept "shutting him down." And now nobody knows for sure that he'll even play when the postseason commences here Saturday afternoon. "I think he'll play, but we don't know," said Rivers."If we don't like what we see [in practice today and tomorrow], he won't . . . Right now, we don't know. It's no fun for any of us. As a staff, we have to think of two game plans."

"KG will be rested," said general manager Danny Ainge, trying to put a light touch on the heavy situation.

What about the idea of shutting Garnett down for the first round since the Celtics can probably win without him?

"That really hasn't been discussed yet," said Ainge.

"I try not to think about it or worry about it," said Allen. "It becomes unfair to Leon, Glen [Davis], Kendrick [Perkins], and Mikki [Moore]. I am expecting him to play, but we don't know how he feels."

Nobody knows anything. That's the scary thing as the Celtics go into the playoffs. Garnett is intensely private (how does he live here for two years without seemingly ever being seen in public?) and recoils when asked about injuries.

Can they win without him?

"No," said Ainge, later qualifying that with, "It would be a difficult task."

We all know they can't win without him. And there's considerable doubt about their ability to win with him this year.

Garnett is to this team what Bill Russell was to the old Celtics. The Celtics won it in 11 of Russell's 13 seasons. The two years they didn't win? 1958, when Russell was hurt, and 1967, when the Philadelphia 76ers were simply better.

That's what this feels like.Garnett is hurt. And the Cavs are better.

Dan Shaughnessy is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at dshaughnessy@globe.com.

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[Mdog1]

He means to say that the Cavaliers are better and garnett is hurt and not the other way around. Priorities people.

 

[Rick Astley]

Well did people really read the article wrong?

 

[wuck]

Well did people really read the article wrong?

I think Mdog means that the important part of the story is that the Cavs are better and the secondary part of the story is, oh by the way (and who cares because the Cavs are so much better), KG is hurt.

I think Mdog is going for nuance.

Or has some serious reading issues. :chuckles:

 

[Mdog1]

I think Mdog means that the important part of the story is that the Cavs are better and the secondary part of the story is, oh by the way (and who cares because the Cavs are so much better), KG is hurt.

I think Mdog is going for nuance.

Or has some serious reading issues. :chuckles:

This is exactly what I meant. It should have been something like not only are the Cavaliers the best team in the league, but KG won't be healthy as if it mattered and they will not repeat because this is clevelands season.

 

[chiefwahoo]

I remember a similar article by Bob Ryan declaring the Red Sox dead when the Tribe was up 3-1 in the 2007 ALCS... these Boston writers believe in reverse jinxes even more than us fans do.

 

[Wulfgar1224]

This is hardly news. The Cavs have improved. The Celtics only beat them last year because of homecourt. Once the C's lost that, it was over for them.

 

[bucksprime99]

Hey Boston!

That happened kind of quick, didn't it?

 

[hn3108]

I still think Bos can beat Orlando in a 7 game series.

 

[theSTEREO.]

I remember a similar article by Bob Ryan declaring the Red Sox dead when the Tribe was up 3-1 in the 2007 ALCS... these Boston writers believe in reverse jinxes even more than us fans do.

Maybe, but it would have been a whole different story if Bob Ryan had said that due to, say, Beckett and Manny had been injured.

 

[wuck]

Here's what Bob Ryan just published. I guess they all have decided to bury the Celtics in order to reverse-jinx them.

Or they're just going through the stages of grief very quickly.

"Already winners" - the epitaph no team wants to hear before the playoffs.

Forget a repeat, Celtics are already winners
By Bob Ryan
Globe Staff / April 17, 2009

For the fan, it's better this way.

You know the deal up front. The Celtics will not become the 2009 NBA champions.

You won't be teased. You won't be living through one of those tedious, agonizing, will-he-or-won't-he scenarios. Barring some unforeseen medical miracle, Kevin Garnett is O-U-T, out of the playoffs. They now have a new goal - the Eastern Conference finals. That remains quite attainable. Orlando's good, but not scary good.

So relax. The pressure's off. Sit back and watch an entertaining team do the best it can, whatever that happens to be.

There is no other sane way to look at this.

But wait. I gather that some people are - I can hardly believe this - angry. Disappointed, I can see. I'm disappointed, too, but angry? About what?

Is there some kind of entitlement clause I never heard about? Have fans forgotten that when the Big Three were assembled there was an agreed-upon three-year window to produce title No. 17, and that the goal has already been achieved? People have no right to get greedy, especially when two excellent teams such as the 66-16 Cavaliers and the 65-17 Lakers are on the prowl. I'm not saying a healthy Celtics team couldn't have beaten either the Cavs or the Lakers, but I would not have expected them to. Big difference.

Now there is a legitimate question here, I'll grant that. To borrow a phrase, what did the Celtics know, and when did they know it? Some are asking if perhaps there's more going on here than a "sprain," and, if so, why wasn't it addressed immediately, perhaps surgically?

My answer is that I don't know for sure, but I doubt there was any information evasion going on. I think the brass is a bit gobsmacked by this development. As recently as Monday, here is what Danny Ainge had to say.

"I'm optimistic. Hopeful. We're just waiting to see. Hopefully, we will be 100 percent healthy, I think we will be."

I doubt he was referring to Gabe Pruitt.

But I think we all know what's really going on, and it's pretty simple. The Big Ticket has been punched for 1,128 games, regular season and playoffs combined. And Garnett minutes are unlike anyone else's minutes. A Garnett minute is at least a minute and 20, and maybe more. Nobody plays as intensely as Kevin Garnett - nobody. His right knee is saying "Ouch," or words to that effect.

It's got to be bad. This is Kevin Garnett we're talking about.

"After watching him run," Doc Rivers told WEEI yesterday morning, "there's no way . . . This was an honest run today. You couldn't fake your way through it; you know what I'm saying?"

Sadly, yes.

A Garnett-less Celtics is still a formidable foe. They were 18-7 without him this season, with seven of those victories coming over teams with winning records (Phoenix, Denver, Cleveland, Miami twice, and Atlanta twice). They score the ball, as they like to say nowadays, just fine. The problem comes at the defensive end, where Garnett was the physical and spiritual leader. They simply do not defend as well without Kevin Garnett in the lineup and - stop me if you've heard this - defense is what wins championships.

We're going to find out a few things in these playoffs. We will see, for example, just how far Glen "Big Baby" Davis has come in the past two months. Anyone watching this team in the 25 games since KG sustained his knee injury Feb. 19 in Salt Lake City knows that no individual on the team has personally prospered as much as Big Baby, who has broadened his offensive game by making himself a reliable face-up jump shooter and who just plays with more overall poise and presence than he did before.

Baby ended the season nicely, averaging 12.6 points since March 1 while putting up such numbers as 24, 19, 19, 19, 22, 15 and 21 in seven of the final 12 regular-season games. Can he maintain that pace in the most important games? That's a good question.

Baby and Leon Powe will be vitally important. Powe is well-established as a walking double-double waiting to happen. The biggest difference between the two is that Baby has at least grasped the basic concept of the vital defensive rotations from the beginning, whereas Leon still has a way of getting lost. But there are few more relentless forces coming off a bench in terms of attacking the glass and taking it to the hoop than Leon Powe.

But let's get serious. The man who will have to produce, who will have to bring nightly A games, who will have to be as good as he likes to think he is: The Captain.

Paul Pierce came away from last season's Finals with an enhanced reputation as a prime-time player. But that didn't seem to be enough for him. Unless I mistook what he was saying, he couldn't understand why people were hesitating to put him on the same level as Kobe and LeBron (and now, Dwyane). OK, Cap. If you really are that good, now's the time to prove it.

I, for one, won't hold him to that. It's no insult to be a great player, as Pierce is, and still be a cut below that reigning Holy Trinity of Hoop.

Chicago reminds me somewhat of last year's Hawks, with all those bouncy legs (John Salmons, Joakim Noah, Tyrus Thomas, etc.). They've got a great young point guard in Derrick Rose and lots of veteran savvy coming off the bench with Brad Miller, Kirk Hinrich and Tim Thomas, a guy who's always capable of dropping a quick 20 on you. But the Celtics should get by them.

That would bring up Orlando, with that great front line of Dwight Howard, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, but they will miss All-Star guard Jameer Nelson, and the Celtics have a very good chance of beating them.

Then it's all house money. The pressure would be completely on the Cavs. Should you hope? Sure. Should you expect? No. They're pretty good. Excuse me, He is pretty good. In fact, He is transcendent. If LeBron James can bring his team within a minute of beating the Celtics last season, why would you think he won't find a way to beat a Garnett-less Celtics team this year?

Anyway, you've already gotten your reward. Stop whining.

Bob Ryan is a Globe columnist and host of the Globe's 10.0 on Boston.com. He can be reached at ryan@globe.com.

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