Every year there is so much draft talk about the battle between potential and production. NBA teams, in a perfect world, would draft players that have both, and preferably when they are still young.
Think about the majority of top picks each year. Derrick Rose, John Wall, Blake Griffin, Tyreke Evans, Michael Beasley, Kevin Durant, Greg Oden -- all those guys had great potential, to be sure, but they also put up big numbers and had great success in college.
Then consider some other draft picks, guys like DeMar DeRozan, Austin Daye and Xavier Henry -- all super talents who were not quite the production monsters those other guys were. Consequently, they fell out of the top-six range of the draft, though were still drafted high because of their youth and upside.
So what player in this draft stands out as a guy already producing but still flaunts big-time potential? Look no further than last season's freshman of the year in the Pac-10, Arizona's Derrick Williams, who's looking to play his way into the lottery.
The first question you might ask when considering Williams' current stock as a mid-first round prospect is, "How can someone that productive not be a top-10 guy?" The answer, of course, is his "tweener" label. At this time of year, players who don't have at least one position they definitely project to play are always seen as more of a risk, compared to guys who have a natural position due to their size and skill set. As we get closer to June, though, prospects will have had ample opportunities to display their game in a more structured setting (the draft workouts), and can show their full range of talents. It's no guarantee they will move up in the draft, but plenty of guys similar to Williams (tweeners like Thaddeus Young and Jeff Green) have done just that.
What is it about Williams' game that I think scouts will end up loving? I'll start with this: his "ranginess." Watching him play, you'll see him unfurl his long arms to snatch long rebounds out of his area. No matter what position he ends up playing, that is a talent that projects well. He does a good job of going to get the ball, and because he plays power forward/center at Arizona, he's used to the banging and shoving inside. He's not a great rebounder and does not project as one, but he's good enough, considering it's not his best skill.
His best talent lies in his production and efficiency as a scorer. I didn't list this first because, if he weren't the rangy athlete that he is, it would be hard for him to crack the lottery strictly based on his best talent. But make no mistake, Williams is probably the best all-around scorer in college today.
He makes slashing drives. He knocks in catch-and-shoot, midrange jumpers. He races the floor for dunks in transition. He finishes around the rim with either hand. And though he does not take many 3s, he makes a great percentage of them (how's 12 for 17?).
He's also sensational in getting to the free throw line. In 31 games last season, he took 232 foul shots, and this season he has 99 attempts already in just 12 games. Clearly he earns some of them because even though he's just a sophomore, he's already stronger than many of his opponents. That advantage leads to free throws, though it will be mitigated a good deal as a pro. However, it also shows he knows how to get fouled, and that awareness doesn't depreciate at the next level. Crafty guys who can think the game will typically find new ways to be effective as pros, evolving their game as their bodies and skill level expand or change.
There is debate as to what his best position will be in the NBA, though most of it comes from people not working in the NBA. Positions in the league have increasingly grown into more general categorizations, moving away from the more specific slots of the '90s. In that case, Williams is easily seen as a forward, someone who can swing from the power to small spot based on the opponent's personnel package, as well as his own team's system.
He won't be a guy who will likely lock up the most versatile/quick ball handlers at the small forward spots (guys like LeBron James or Rudy Gay), but from Carmelo Anthony to Durant, Williams has the requisite athleticism to compete as well as anyone might against those scoring machines. Similarly, he'll have trouble at the power forward position against size guys like Pau Gasol or Dirk Nowitzki, but then again, no one on the planet can guard them.
More traditional studs at the power forward spot, like Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh, are only mismatches because of the difference in age and experience. Physically, Williams will be able to hold his own.
Remember this about Williams: He'll play this entire season as a 19-year-old (he turns 20 in May). He's eight months younger than Wall, and a whopping four years younger than Wesley Johnson, another college forward who's now a 2/3 in the NBA. Williams can grow a great deal in all facets of the game, and can become quicker with the ball and as a defender (though he already averages over a steal a game). He appears to be a guy who can be an excellent outside shooter, but thanks to his ability to get buckets and free throws, he won't just be a guy on the court to spread the floor.
NBA teams need at least three shooters on the court at all times if they want to effectively attack defenses, and Williams' talent assures teams that he can be one of those guys. When I watch him, I see some Thaddeus Young, some David West and some Paul Millsap. Those guys are three of the top 20 power forwards in basketball, though none was a top-10 pick. Williams, though, can play the small spot better than all of them, and that added versatility gives him a great chance to get into that coveted top 10 range.
