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2018 Draft Prospects Thread

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Binkster said:
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David Caruso is one of the most phony tough guys in Hollywood history.
 
Lee said:
Not sure how Roethlisberger is not number 1 on the above list, but that really isnt the point.

But yes, about a 50/50 chance when you take an early QB in the 1st which is much, much better when you dont.

Are you arguing for or against taking a QB 1st overall? Because the above list proves you need to take a QB early, improves your chances like 500% of getting a top 15 QB.
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I was not arguing for anything, just filtering out the lower 1st round picks as was suggested. We want to think that our selection of a QB this year finally solves things. Just as often as not, it doesn't. Of course, with Goff, Wentz, Watson emerging as apparent early hits, and there being only 3 busts in the top half of the first round since 2012 (out of 11), we may have entered a new era of improved QB evaluation. That presumes Trubisky and Mahomes are legit, and Winston and Mariota don't regress.

Even going by top 5 picks alone, bust rate is still 45%. That doesn't mean you don't pick someone there because A.) the bust rate on the #1 position player taken isn't much better and B.) Quarterback is that much more important.

The ranking is based mostly on ProFootballReference.com AV stat, so more purely statistical. Ignores postseason and so is not that enamored with Ben Roethlisberger.
 
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Matches said:
I was not arguing for anything, just filtering out the lower 1st round picks as was suggested. We want to think that our selection of a QB this year finally solves things. Just as often as not, it doesn't. Of course, with Goff, Wentz, Watson emerging as apparent early hits, and there being only 3 busts in the top half of the first round since 2012 (out of 11), we may have entered a new era of improved QB evaluation. That presumes Trubisky and Mahomes are legit, and Winston and Mariota don't regress.

Even going by top 5 picks alone, bust rate is still 45%. That doesn't mean you don't pick someone there because A.) the bust rate on the #1 position player taken isn't much better and B.) Quarterback is that much more important.

The ranking is based mostly on ProFootballReference.com AV stat, so more purely statistical. Ignores postseason and so is not that enamored with Ben Roethlisberger.
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I dont think QB evaluation has improved, I just think there has been a good run of luck lately as 11 is way to small of a number to be statistically significant.

And I did say the ranking of Ben wasnt the point, just seemed to stick out like a pointless sore thumb, lol.

But I agree with your point its 50/50, but curious if you think this is bad or good? Personally a 50% chance of hitting on a QB is sooooo much better than the last 19 years of crap its insane.
 
Lee said:
I dont think QB evaluation has improved, I just think there has been a good run of luck lately as 11 is way to small of a number to be statistically significant.

And I did say the ranking of Ben wasnt the point, just seemed to stick out like a pointless sore thumb, lol.

But I agree with your point its 50/50, but curious if you think this is bad or good? Personally a 50% chance of hitting on a QB is sooooo much better than the last 19 years of crap its insane.
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I was one of those who was for delaying the QB the last 2 years. I didn't see the point of bringing a rookie into the situation we had. In an alternate universe we took Wentz at #2 and we know exactly how that would have worked out.

There's 2 things different now, and why I'm all on board with the QB at 1. The talent on the team is much stronger than it was in 2016. Even before Tyrod Taylor, I'd have been fine taking Rosen and just going. Second, we're not passing up on a key contributor to take a coin flip at QB this year because we have that #4 pick. That makes it a no brainer.

Now, who to actually pick? What do I know? I've attached myself to Rosen and Fitzpatrick, but would be fine with Darnold and Chubb. Mayfield and Barkley is my "nightmare" scenario, but having lived the nightmares of Brandon Weeden and Johnny Manziel, I think Mayfield-Barkley is an easy nut....err...pill... to swallow if I have to.
 
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Lee said:
I dont think QB evaluation has improved, I just think there has been a good run of luck lately as 11 is way to small of a number to be statistically significant.
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Personally, I think coaching is perhaps as important or more important than the actual quality of a QB prospect. If you end up on a team with a smart coach who is willing to build a system around your strengths and that negates your weaknesses as much as possible, you've got a damn good shot of experiencing some real NFL success.

If you end up on a team that Hue Jackson is coaching and he makes you run his system regardless of how well you fit, well...sorry, Kizer.
 
I also went back and looked at the NFL.com grades (I believe all from Lance Zierlein) from the previous four years and once again it's Darnold at the top.

1. Sam Darnold 7.00
2. Jameis Winston 6.70
3. Carson Wentz 6.53
4. Jared Goff 6.51
5. Mitch Trubisky 6.31
6. Marcus Mariota 6.27
7. Josh Rosen 6.19
8. Paxton Lynch 6.17
9. Baker Mayfield 6.03
10. Josh Allen 6.01
11. Deshaun Watson 5.98
12. Pat Mahomes 5.87
13. DeShone Kizer 5.78
 
Truly don't understand it.

Everyone seems to admit that Rosen is much more advanced as a passer right now, but Darnold seems to get the nod for "extending plays."

Makes no sense to me.
 
CBBI said:
Daniel Jeremiah ranks Sam Darnold as his top QB prospect of the past three years. Surprisingly, he didn't grade Pat Mahomes as one of the 10 best QB prospects of the last three years.

1. Darnold
2. Wentz
3. Rosen
4. Goff
5. Mayfield
6. Allen
7. Watson
8. Trubisky
9. Kizer
10. Lynch

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ects-of-past-3-nfl-draft-classes-darnold-no-1
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It is just so difficult for me to not take someone's scouting opinion on QBs with a grain of salt when they are hyping up Allen

Like, in Johnny's year when people were ranking him highly as a prospect it kind of tainted their other QB input in my mind. Now, Allen isn't as bad of a prospect as Manziel is, but I am still mystified people consider him an upper first round prospect.
 
The Wizard of Moz said:
It is just so difficult for me to not take someone's scouting opinion on QBs with a grain of salt when they are hyping up Allen

Like, in Johnny's year when people were ranking him highly as a prospect it kind of tainted their other QB input in my mind. Now, Allen isn't as bad of a prospect as Manziel is, but I am still mystified people consider him an upper first round prospect.
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He also has Kizer at 9 and to me Kizer, Allen and Mahommes are all very similar prospects with the same flaws and strengths.
 
Sounds good to me. Take the man!
 
AZ_ said:
Truly don't understand it.

Everyone seems to admit that Rosen is much more advanced as a passer right now, but Darnold seems to get the nod for "extending plays."

Makes no sense to me.
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I'll try.

Rosen is best in the pocket in the class. When the pocket is clean, he can pick you apart and will crush your soul.

Darnold thrives in the chaos of the pocket. He can survive the immense pressure and make a tremendous play.

Rosen isn't the best when the pocket breaks down and Darnold gets ants in his pants in clean pockets. But you tell me which is easier to teach? Or which do you think NFL coaches think is the easier one to fix?

It's why Darnold, IMO, will and should be the pick. Provided we can keep him off the field for a while.
 
Amherstcavsfan said:
I'll try.

Rosen is best in the pocket in the class. When the pocket is clean, he can pick you apart and will crush your soul.

Darnold thrives in the chaos of the pocket. He can survive the immense pressure and make a tremendous play.

Rosen isn't the best when the pocket breaks down and Darnold gets ants in his pants in clean pockets. But you tell me which is easier to teach? Or which do you think NFL coaches think is the easier one to fix?

It's why Darnold, IMO, will and should be the pick. Provided we can keep him off the field for a while.
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solid thought out opinion, but to be honest, I am happy with either, but want no one else but the two.
 
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