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Baker Mayfield: Fire The Cannons

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thedarkness2332 said:
I’m not sure I follow why his ceiling is average.

My biggest knocks on him were 1) size and 2) having so much to learn given what he will be asked to do in the NFL versus the offense he ran at Oklahoma.

However, he has a very good arm. He has great touch and accuracy. His placement is astounding. He has many great traits.

I’m not sure that he ends up being great or anything but I don’t understand how we can stunt his ceiling.

It can’t be height... because of the two “undersized” QB’s currently starting in the league, both are top 5 QB’s in Drew and Russ.

I’m not saying he’s either. However, this proves that height is not a valid cap when establishing his ceiling given the “heights” that these two have risen to.

That moves us over to how much he’s going to have to learn. Sure, analysts think he’s one of the most ready to play. I disagree. I think he needs time to learn an NFL offense—set protections, identify disguised coverages, going through multiple progressions, and settling his feet in the pocket.

However, he has shown no inability to learn these things yet either. With a high football IQ, I don’t see any of this being an issue in time.

Thus, why exactly do you put his ceiling as “average?”

Did I think he had more uncertainty to be great when taking him? Sure. He’s not a safe pick. Darnold and Rosen were above him on my wish list.

However, uncertainty doesn’t mean he can only ascend so far.
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I don’t want to speak for anyone, but I know @AZ_ has expressed these concerns.

1. Mayfield’s lower body mechanics, specifically his base/stance getting too wide, can be an issue.

2. Despite having good passing statistics against the pressure/blitzes, that’s a little misleading because Mayfield takes a lot of sacks and appears to drop his eyes in the pocket against interior pressure.

3. Not many elements of his college offense translate to the professional game. More often that not, Mayfield knew where he was going with the ball before it was snapped and he wasn’t forced to make a lot of progressions or throws into tight windows. He did those things when he had to, but Riley’s offensive system was very effective in its simplicity.
 
Those are perfectly meritorious and substantive concerns. This one is going to be really interesting to watch unfold.

There is reason to think he can succeed, and there are reasons to think he will fail (relative to his selection slot).

This will be an interesting training camp and preseason, at the very least.

One thing of which I can’t accuse the front office is surrounding him with plus-athletes at the skill position, and outstanding protection from guard-to-guard. (I’m a little higher on corbett at tackle than most, I think. Hubbard seemed to show he was a solid RT last season too).

I just wish we were starting the season with a coach that didn’t have some rather profound blemishes.
 
CBBI said:
I don’t want to speak for anyone, but I know @AZ_ has expressed these concerns.

1. Mayfield’s lower body mechanics, specifically his base/stance getting too wide, can be an issue.

2. Despite having good passing statistics against the pressure/blitzes, that’s a little misleading because Mayfield takes a lot of sacks and appears to drop his eyes in the pocket against interior pressure.

3. Not many elements of his college offense translate to the professional game. More often that not, Mayfield knew where he was going with the ball before it was snapped and he wasn’t forced to make a lot of progressions or throws into tight windows. He did those things when he had to, but Riley’s offensive system was very effective in its simplicity.
Click to expand...

These are issues to adjust, not things that cap his ceiling at average.
 
Chris said:
These are issues to adjust, not things that cap his ceiling at average.
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Yeah like what?

A cap on ceiling is physical limitations. Which Baker doesn’t really have.

All the other issues are things he can work to improve at.
 
thedarkness2332 said:
I’m not sure I follow why his ceiling is average.

My biggest knocks on him were 1) size and 2) having so much to learn given what he will be asked to do in the NFL versus the offense he ran at Oklahoma.

However, he has a very good arm. He has great touch and accuracy. His placement is astounding. He has many great traits.

I’m not sure that he ends up being great or anything but I don’t understand how we can stunt his ceiling.

It can’t be height... because of the two “undersized” QB’s currently starting in the league, both are top 5 QB’s in Drew and Russ.

I’m not saying he’s either. However, this proves that height is not a valid cap when establishing his ceiling given the “heights” that these two have risen to.

That moves us over to how much he’s going to have to learn. Sure, analysts think he’s one of the most ready to play. I disagree. I think he needs time to learn an NFL offense—set protections, identify disguised coverages, going through multiple progressions, and settling his feet in the pocket.

However, he has shown no inability to learn these things yet either. With a high football IQ, I don’t see any of this being an issue in time.

Thus, why exactly do you put his ceiling as “average?”

Did I think he had more uncertainty to be great when taking him? Sure. He’s not a safe pick. Darnold and Rosen were above him on my wish list.

However, uncertainty doesn’t mean he can only ascend so far.
Click to expand...

The issue isnt about what he will become, that is a huge unknown. Its about the probability of what he will come.

6'0 QB's have a horrible track record in the NFL. Brees and Russ and to a lesser extent Tyrod are the exception to the rule. Further Big 12 QB's typically suck, there is less chance of them succeeding as Sam Bradford is the best of the Big 12 QB's.

But, he is now a Brown, our front office saw something in him and I am a Browns fan. So now there is now point talking about the things he cant do, but look ahead and root for the guy to be a great QB.
 
We can all post negatives and positives about all of the "3" QB's that really matter right now. We have done this for months and months. But we really have no fucking clue how either will pan out. Just saying that one will most likely not pan out is just dumb until we see in-game action against real NFL talent. All 3 could be Pro Bowlers. All 3 could be massive busts.

For me at least, I don't give a fuck anymore about Rosen/Darnold. Wish them the best, but our guy is Baker.
 
SixPACK said:
We can all post negatives and positives about all of the "3" QB's that really matter right now. We have done this for months and months. But we really have no fucking clue how either will pan out. Just saying that one will most likely not pan out is just dumb until we see in-game action against real NFL talent. All 3 could be Pro Bowlers. All 3 could be massive busts.

For me at least, I don't give a fuck anymore about Rosen/Darnold. Wish them the best, but our guy is Baker.
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Just saying, I think there's more than a handful of folks who do think they know how either/all will pan out.
 
Soda said:
Just saying, I think there's more than a handful of folks who do think they know how either/all will pan out.
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It's simple really.

Baker will be in the Hof, class of 2043

Darnold will be out of football in 6 years where he takes up acting. Since he doesn't have that contagious Gene that folks love, his defining mark in life will be that hes casted in the role of Lurch and be a major part in the next 5 Addams family values movie.

Rosen will end up being a decent QB, not probowl quality, but decent. After a good 8 year run in the league, last 2 not in Arizona, he will find god and open up a church in Utah. Hot tubs and 7 sister wives will occupy the rest of his days.

Allen? Well we all know that he's a gift to humanity. So my best guess is he becomes the actual Superman.
 
CBBI said:
I don’t want to speak for anyone, but I know @AZ_ has expressed these concerns.

1. Mayfield’s lower body mechanics, specifically his base/stance getting too wide, can be an issue.

2. Despite having good passing statistics against the pressure/blitzes, that’s a little misleading because Mayfield takes a lot of sacks and appears to drop his eyes in the pocket against interior pressure.

3. Not many elements of his college offense translate to the professional game. More often that not, Mayfield knew where he was going with the ball before it was snapped and he wasn’t forced to make a lot of progressions or throws into tight windows. He did those things when he had to, but Riley’s offensive system was very effective in its simplicity.
Click to expand...

Lee said:
The issue isnt about what he will become, that is a huge unknown. Its about the probability of what he will come.

6'0 QB's have a horrible track record in the NFL. Brees and Russ and to a lesser extent Tyrod are the exception to the rule. Further Big 12 QB's typically suck, there is less chance of them succeeding as Sam Bradford is the best of the Big 12 QB's.

But, he is now a Brown, our front office saw something in him and I am a Browns fan. So now there is now point talking about the things he cant do, but look ahead and root for the guy to be a great QB.
Click to expand...

Oh, I acknowledge how much he needs to improve. Many guys entering the league have similar or worse issues.

I'm just stating that physically, saying his "ceiling" is only so high... I think that's an inaccurate statement.

Sure, even his short height increases the chance of bust. I just asked a follow up question when someone says "I'll root for him to achieve his average ceiling."

I think his ceiling is still fluid. That's the entire point I was trying to make.
 
What I think Mayfield has going for him above all else (beyond the intangible stuff which we've all heard is highly positive, but is difficult to measure) is NFL arm talent.

When I say arm talent, I don’t mean arm strength. There’s a lot more to it than that for me. Josh Allen has a much stronger arm than Mayfield, but I wouldn't say he's anywhere close to Mayfield in terms of arm talent.

I just think Mayfield has the right combination of accuracy, touch, velocity and arm strength to be very successful in the NFL.

We’ll see how quickly he adapts to a more traditional offense (although if Haley is smart, he'd adopt some of the RPO/spread elements) and how well he learns to handle pressure, but his arm talent and decision making aren't really an issue for me.
 
thedarkness2332 said:
I'm just stating that physically, saying his "ceiling" is only so high... I think that's an inaccurate statement.

Sure, even his short height increases the chance of bust. I just asked a follow up question when someone says "I'll root for him to achieve his average ceiling."

I think his ceiling is still fluid. That's the entire point I was trying to make.
Click to expand...

I said in the prospects thread, that there's nothing more useless than talking about a guy's "ceiling". Right here we're talking about a ceiling being "fluid", which is just silly. The guy was a #1 overall pick and a consensus first round pick. His ceiling is top QB in the league and a bust in Canton. By the way, that also turned out to be Tom Brady's ceiling even though nobody thought so at the time.

The Movie Gattaca said:
No one exceeds his potential... If he did, it would mean we didn't accurately gauge his potential in the first place.
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@Lee was right - the issue isn't what is he is ceiling or what he'll be, it's the probability of him becoming what he can be. I think the better way to assess a prospect is by projecting the chances that he achieves a particular tier. What are the chances that he becomes

  1. one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league?
  2. Not one of the 10 best, but between 10 and 20?
  3. not even in the top 20?
I think I broke it down as something like 20% for the top 10, 35% for 10th-20th, and 45% for not in the top 20.
 
Matches said:
I said in the prospects thread, that there's nothing more useless than talking about a guy's "ceiling". Right here we're talking about a ceiling being "fluid", which is just silly. The guy was a #1 overall pick and a consensus first round pick. His ceiling is top QB in the league and a bust in Canton. By the way, that also turned out to be Tom Brady's ceiling even though nobody thought so at the time.



@Lee was right - the issue isn't what is he is ceiling or what he'll be, it's the probability of him becoming what he can be. I think the better way to assess a prospect is by projecting the chances that he achieves a particular tier. What are the chances that he becomes

  1. one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league?
  2. Not one of the 10 best, but between 10 and 20?
  3. not even in the top 20?
I think I broke it down as something like 20% for the top 10, 35% for 10th-20th, and 45% for not in the top 20.
Click to expand...
Matches, I think you're misunderstanding my use of "fluid."

My argument was that he may have a very high ceiling, we simply don't know yet which parts of his game will improve with coaching.

The counter-argument that I was addressing was a statement that "his ceiling is merely average, at best" which was made by another poster.

I was defending Mayfield's potential. I don't think you got that.
 
thedarkness2332 said:
Matches, I think you're misunderstanding my use of "fluid."

My argument was that he may have a very high ceiling, we simply don't know yet which parts of his game will improve with coaching.

The counter-argument that I was addressing was a statement that "his ceiling is merely average, at best" which was made by another poster.

I was defending Mayfield's potential. I don't think you got that.
Click to expand...

I did, and worried that you'd think I was unfairly singling you out... Which I didn't mean to do - I agree that an assessment of Mayfield's ceiling as being a average to slightly above average NFL quarterback is silly. A ceiling is a ceiling. Not "what I expect him to be is...."

I don't think @AZ_ was saying, "Baker Mayfield has no chance of being anything better than an above average quarterback", but he used that term "ceiling" which to me means the reasonable top end of a player's potential, not the most probable peak level of the player's performance.
 
Interesting discussion.

My take is, none of us including myself knows shit. We don't know who will succeed or fail, we don't know if the Browns know who will succeed or fail. There's lots of great arguments on either side for each guy.

Me, I wanted either Darnold or Rozen but I can sure as hell live with Mayfield and I'm glad we didn't take a flier on Allen. That about sums it up.

Since we drafter Mayfield he's now my guy, same way I rooted for pretty much every QB on that famous jersey of 23 or so failed QBs, and I hope like hell he's something different and better than anything we've had all these years.

For that matter I'm be pleased as hell if Tyrod could take us to the playoffs. I don't care, it's time to win some games and develop as a team, destroy the existing paradigm of being the worst team in the NFL.

Nobody will know one way or the other for a few more years which guy is the cream of the crop. I always liked the underdogs and short guys who had to overcome like Brees and Wilson, and hopefully Mayfield is truly an outlier. Time will tell.
 
Picking Mayfield with the first pick was an overwhelming no brainer in my book. Finally a GM in town that knows what he's doing. But the politically correct narrative that Taylor will be the starter this season is ridiculous. What Jackson and company should be saying is that right now Taylor is number 1 on the depth chart, but it is just a matter of time before our future franchise quarterback takes over. That could be week 8, week 4, or even week 1 against Pittsburgh. It's on Baker's shoulders to get there is soon as possible.

Kizer was not ruined by playing him his rookie season. No. Kizer was a horrible quarterback in college and subsequently a horrible quarterback in the pros. There is no comparison between these 2.

Recent number 1 round quarterbacks seeing the field in their rookie season. Wentz (game 1), Watson, Goff, Winston, Mariota. Luck, Trebisky and others.

Also, this team is massively better than last year's team. There really is no excuse for Mayfield, with all these offensive weapons. to not compete for a playoff spot this season.
 
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