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#12 Miami at #2 Ohio State

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#12 Miami at #2 Ohio State Scouts Inc Preview​

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Miami offense vs. Ohio State defense
• Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris has an opportunity to shine in this game. The Buckeyes lack elite speed along the defensive front, which leads defensive coordinators Jim Heacock and Luke Fickell to blitz more than they would like. They will occasionally utilize a zone blitz with a defensive lineman dropping off into underneath zone, but more often they simply bring extra pressure with a linebacker charging through one of the gaps. Harris' effectiveness in recognizing the blitz, finding his hot reads and making accurate throws with pressure in his face likely will determine the outcome of this game.

If he deals with it well, Miami has too many weapons at wide receiver -- including Leonard Hankerson, Travis Benjamin, LaRon Byrd and Aldarius Johnson -- for the Buckeyes' secondary to hold up, especially with starting cornerback Chimdi Chekwa nursing a sore hamstring. However, making quick, smart decisions while under pressure -- particularly on the road -- has been Harris' weakness to date. If the Miami quarterback has not made significant strides in this department, he will be exposed in Week 2.

• Ohio State's stout run defense is anchored by DE Cameron Heyward. The Buckeyes are big and strong up front, and they do a very good job of protecting MLB Brian Rolle and WLB Ross Homan. Rolle and Homan diagnose plays quickly, take solid angles in pursuit and wrap up in space. Considering Ohio State's experience advantage in the trenches -- with the exception of Miami OT Orlando Franklin -- and its excellent linebacker play, it won't be surprising if Miami's rushing attack sputters. If Miami RB Graig Cooper were at full strength it likely would be a different story, but Cooper played sparingly last week and does not appear to be close to 100 percent following offseason knee surgery. The Hurricanes still have some talent at running back, but Damien Berry is not nearly as elusive or quick as Cooper, and while Mike James is a bit faster than Berry, he lacks the experience to consistently anticipate creases and make the proper cuts.

• The Hurricanes can gain an advantage on special teams, where Ohio State is unusually vulnerable due to inexperience. First year PK Devin Barclay had a field goal attempt blocked by Marshall last week and it was returned 61 yards for a score. The kick was a bit low, but LS Jake McQuaide was mostly to blame for giving up too much ground as a blocker. In addition, kickoff specialist Drew Basil appears to have a strong leg, but the freshman is inconsistent with his distance. Basil's third kickoff in the opener was too short and Marshall RS Andre Booker took advantage with a 63-yard return. Miami, on the other hand, has one of the most versatile and dangerous kickers in the country, Matt Bosher, who handles the place-kicking, kickoff and punting duties. In addition, the Hurricanes have potential game-breakers in the return phase in Travis Benjamin and Lamar Miller.

Key individual matchup
Miami LOT Orlando Franklin vs. Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward
These are two of the best players in the country at their positions. Heyward will move around the defensive line at times, but the majority of his snaps are spent at right end, which is where he will go head-to-head with Franklin. Heyward does not possess elite top-end speed, but he is big and powerful, does a good job of anchoring versus the run, and also has the quickness and power to generate consistent penetration with an array of double moves and bull rushes. Franklin might be the best offensive tackle Heyward faces this season, though. The 6-foot-7, 312-pounder has quick feet for his size, consistently gets into good position, and shows the lower-body strength and balance to limit Heyward's push as a power rusher. If Franklin can keep Heyward quiet as a pass-rusher, it will force Ohio State to blitz more often than it likes, and then it will be up to QB Jacory Harris and his receivers to communicate and connect against a vulnerable back seven.

Ohio State offense vs. Miami defense
• In his past two outings (wins over Oregon and Marshall) Buckeyes QB Terrelle Pryor has appeared more comfortable in the pocket and is making quicker decisions. He is still a threat to run, but Pryor can do more damage by making proper reads and distributing the ball to his underrated supporting cast. As he showed last week, Pryor will still lose the strike zone on occasion, and he continues to struggle with his accuracy on quick-hitting underneath throws. He simply needs to learn to take some zip off his fastball. But Pryor's accuracy continues to improve and he is showing much better anticipation. His first-quarter completion against Marshall to Dane Sanzenbacher -- Pryor delivered the ball in between the linebacker and safety against a Cover 2 zone -- is a throw he likely would have missed last year at this time.

• Keeping Pryor comfortable in the pocket will be a challenge for the Buckeyes. Their offensive line as a whole has good size, adequate mobility and above-average experience. However, LOT Mike Adams and ROT J.B. Shugarts are the least experienced of the bunch, with only 16 combined starts, and they face the toughest challenge versus Miami's potent defensive end duo of LDE Allen Bailey and RDE Oliver Vernon. Bailey is a versatile lineman with great power and quickness for his size. He won't threaten Shugarts with speed around the corner, but he has an array of power moves that will keep Shugarts guessing. On the opposite side, Vernon is fresh off a 3.5-sack breakout performance in the opener, and he has the explosive speed and athleticism to make Adams' life miserable. Look for the Buckeyes to frequently give one or both of their tackles help in pass protection. If that's the case, Pryor needs his three best pass-catchers -- WRs Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey and RB Brandon Saine -- to consistently separate from coverage and make plays, because the QB won't be getting as much help as usual from a No. 3 receiver or tight ends.

• The Buckeyes are using a two-back rotation of Saine and Dan "Boom" Herron and will occasionally have them on the field at the same time. In our opinion, the more touches for Saine the better, because he's a true difference-maker. Saine shows good patience waiting for his blocks to develop, and once he sees a crease he shows great burst to get through the line of scrimmage or bounce the run outside. Saine is also a natural pass-catcher with route-running savvy and reliable hands. In Week 1, the Buckeyes clearly worked to get the ball to Saine more often as a receiver out of the backfield, and we expect that trend to continue versus Miami and beyond. It will require a great deal of discipline from Miami's linebackers -- particularly MLB Colin McCarthy and WLB Sean Spence -- to keep Saine in check. The Canes cannot afford to have their "space" linebackers get overzealous when filling gaps versus the run or play-action.

Scouts' Edge
These programs have combined for 12 national titles and accounted for 80 first-round picks in the past 25 NFL drafts. Ohio State's controversial 2003 Fiesta Bowl win over Miami -- which won the national title for the Buckeyes -- will also generate a great deal of buzz leading up to this showdown. However, the history and tradition of these two programs won't matter when they take the field. What will matter is the play of Pryor and Harris. Harris is the better pure passer, but Pryor is making significant strides in that department. Plus, Pryor is developing into a better decision-maker, is the better athlete and has the built-in advantage of playing this nonconference showdown at home. The Hurricanes are much-improved from a year ago, and we expect them to battle Ohio State for four quarters. But coach Jim Tressel's Buckeyes know how to win close games and will take control in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: Buckeyes 27, Hurricanes 24
 
It won't be that close.

I hope the crowd shows up like they did for USC and Iowa last year. That truly makes a difference vs tough opponents. Then again it's Ohio Stadium. I'm sure they will be on their A game.
 
It won't be that close.

I hope the crowd shows up like they did for USC and Iowa last year. That truly makes a difference vs tough opponents. Then again it's Ohio Stadium. I'm sure they will be on their A game.


This is the Shoe we're talking about, one of the toughest places in all of college football to play... we're both Buckeyes, we know just how loud that place can be... I hope you're right about it not being close. No better time to send a message to the rest of the BCS than in the second week of the season.
 
A new game plan for Jacory Harris
Dink and dunk short passes would seem logical, but tape analysis shows differently

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"Taking what the defense gives you" is an age-old football philosophy that is based on the simple fact that no defensive scheme can stop everything. For example, the extremely popular Cover 2 defense is great at preventing long completions but it isn't very good against the run and can be vulnerable to certain types of sideline passes.

The upside of this mindset is that when it is effectively implemented, it can move the ball against any defense. The downside is that it allows the other team to dictate what the offense does with the ball.

There are a multitude of reasons that say Miami coach Randy Shannon should follow that philosophy in attacking Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Heacock's unit.

Chief among these is that Shannon has a mistake-prone quarterback (17 interceptions in 2009, second-most in FBS) in Jacory Harris facing a Buckeyes defense that returns seven starters from last year's shutdown unit that helped take Ohio State to the Rose Bowl.

Harris has proved he can chuck it downfield against top defenses with consistent success.
To get an idea of just how hard it was to move the ball against Ohio State in 2009, consider that the Buckeyes finished second in FBS in interceptions (24) and fifth in passer rating allowed (95.75), touchdowns allowed (10) and yards per pass attempt (5.4). Only four of their opponents topped the 100-mark in passer rating -- and only one had more touchdowns passes than interceptions.

Add it all up and it seems the safest approach would be a "dink and dunk" passing game plan for Shannon and Harris -- but the metrics tell a different story.

After taking a closer look at some of the tapes and metrics from Hurricanes and Buckeyes games this year and last year, it quickly became clear that Shannon should do the exact opposite and instead cut Harris loose to throw the ball vertically early and often in this game.

The analysis started with a review of Ohio State's 45-7 win against the Marshall Thundering Herd from this past weekend, along with a set of four games from the 2009 season (versus the Wisconsin Badgers, at the Penn State Nittany Lions, versus the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Rose Bowl game against the Oregon Ducks; those were the last four ranked teams on the Buckeyes' 2009 schedule).

The Scarlet and Gray defense posted a superb 5.9 yards per attempt (YPA) allowed in these film studies; that's not surprising. What was something of a shock was how consistent the Buckeyes' opponents were when they had the moxie to put up a vertical pass (defined as an aerial thrown 11 or more yards downfield).

All totaled, teams threw more than 11 yards on 46 occasions in these five games; 16 of them ended up as completions and four resulted in defensive pass interference penalties. That means 20 of them ended up with a positive result (43 percent). If the five dropped passes were added into the positive result category, it would move the success rate here up to 54 percent; that would be nearly acceptable for short passes but is quite unacceptable for any type of vertical pass, much less for all vertical passes.

Now contrast those marks against the statistics posted by the Hurricanes in a three-game analysis of their 2009 contests: against the Virginia Tech Hokies, Oklahoma Sooners and Clemson Tigers. Those games were picked because those teams all ranked in the top 22 in FBS in both passing yards allowed and passer rating allowed last season.

Harris attempted 35 vertical passes against those teams; 17 of the throws were complete and one resulted in a defensive pass interference penalty, so the Hurricanes' success rate was 49 percent. Add in the six dropped vertical passes and the Canes' success rate on downfield throws would jump to a ridiculous 66 percent.

The big risk for Shannon in implementing this type of play calling is Harris' penchant for making mistakes, but there is good news here as well. Harris made a bad decision (defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or near turnover such as a dropped interception) only twice in those 35 vertical passes. That equals a 5.6 percent vertical bad decision rate, which would be a good NFL mark and is very good for the collegiate level.

Put it all together and it means the vertical pass reward for Miami in this game far outweighs the corresponding risk. A lot of teams won't even try to throw deep against the Buckeyes because of their zone-heavy defensive scheme, but Harris has proved he can chuck it downfield against top defenses with consistent success. Shannon should feel free to open up the playbook and let Harris, senior wideout Leonard Hankerson and company go all out to win this game.
 
Not happy with the start time - I'll be in Northern Michigan fly fishing for salmon with family and friends all weekend. Needs to be a night game dammit!
 
Not happy with the start time - I'll be in Northern Michigan fly fishing for salmon with family and friends all weekend. Needs to be a night game dammit!

But that would get in the way of BSPN putting the SEC on a pedestal by showing a game (ALA-PSU) that will be a complete massacre.
 
But that would get in the way of BSPN putting the SEC on a pedestal by showing a game (ALA-PSU) that will be a complete massacre.

I bet the game gets moved to 8pm on ABC. The PSU-ALA game is at 7pm on ESPN. Can't remember the last time there wasn't an 8pm game on ABC.
 
I bet the game gets moved to 8pm on ABC. The PSU-ALA game is at 7pm on ESPN. Can't remember the last time there wasn't an 8pm game on ABC.

ABC is showing a NASCAR race at 8 on Saturday. I don't think a game can moved this close to game day regardless.
 
But that would get in the way of BSPN putting the SEC on a pedestal by showing a game (ALA-PSU) that will be a complete massacre.

I will be in Alabama, hopefully you are wrong. I am going for the experience, don't expect a win. That being said, tOSU-MIA should easily be an 8PM (well 7PM this week, thanks NASCAR). ESPN I am sure just wanted their chance to scoop up Alabama in a ranked game while they could over CBS. Plus they are really hyping Paterno vs. Saban.

I bet the game gets moved to 8pm on ABC. The PSU-ALA game is at 7pm on ESPN. Can't remember the last time there wasn't an 8pm game on ABC.

But seriously...of ALL weeks...NASCAR?

I go to Penn State, I help run Paternoville etc. I converted. Thanks to Penn State's excellent Sports Journalism school, I couldn't turn it down. Unfortunately, what was good for my career, killed my Buckeye fan hood.

That being said, my dad (who raised me a Cleveland sports fan...thanks dad :chuckles:) is still a Buckeye fan, and I will always pull/root for them because of that. Plus, 2003 was my only National Championship celebration. So that team holds a place in my sports heart. To this day, people who say that Gamble was not interfered with piss me the f*** off. He was held. Get over it. Now, we can all watch a destruction in the Shoe, so there 4 fans can finally shutup.

Heading out to Columbus now TWO years in a row as well. With the Big Ten scheduling I will be gracing Ohio Stadium in back to back seasons. Can't wait!
 
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I don't care who wins this game, but here is some terrible smack talk. Personally I think the Michigan/Notre Dame and FSU/Oklahoma game are going to be more entertaining to watch.
 
Reason why this isn't a primetime game has nothing to do with ESPN actually. It was OSU's decision to move Marshall to Thursday night, and therefore made Miami game a day-game (Gene Smith has some weird policy where he only wants one non-conference night home game per year).

I'm not exactly sure why that's Gene Smith's policy, but I am 100% sure it has to do with $$.
 
I bet the game gets moved to 8pm on ABC. The PSU-ALA game is at 7pm on ESPN. Can't remember the last time there wasn't an 8pm game on ABC.

The game is so early because a Nascar event already has that scheduled time on ABC.

There is no chance in hell that they move the game 4 days before it...
 
I guess its ok for the Rock to talk crap. He did play for Miami, so i can see where he is coming from.
 

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