1 Blake Bortles
Houston Texans (2-14)
COLLEGE: UCF
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 232
POS: QB
Analysis: This is just as hard a decision for this mock draft as it was for my first back in December. I still have Clowney as the No. 1 player and Bridgewater as the No. 1 QB on my board, but I consider Bortles to be the likeliest choice. He has the prototypical size and mental makeup that Houston is looking for, and my guess is that his weaknesses -- consistency and ball placement -- are things that Texans coach Bill O'Brien thinks he can fix. (The fact that O'Brien coached previously under UCF coach George O'Leary adds a layer of familiarity, provided O'Leary endorses Bortles.) I'm sure some Texans fans will be asking about Johnny Manziel, but I don't think he really fits what O'Brien and this new regime are looking for.
2 Jadeveon Clowney
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: South Carolina
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 266
POS: DE
Analysis: If Clowney doesn't go No. 1 to the Texans, the Rams will be ecstatic for two reasons: One, it would drive up the trade value for the No. 2 pick (at No. 6, the Falcons are one potential trade partner); and two, if the Rams don't get a trade offer that makes sense, they'll have the opportunity to take the best player in this draft and transform a good, young defense into an exceptional one. Yes, I know that the Rams already have a very good defensive line (and O-line was an issue last season), but in today's NFL, when you're defending the pass as much as teams are, being able to rotate your D-linemen or move a guy like Robert Quinn inside to rush the quarterback on passing downs would be a huge asset. Second down is the new third down. Greg Robinson is the pick if Clowney goes first.
3 Teddy Bridgewater
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
COLLEGE: Louisville
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 214
POS: QB
Analysis: I think that if Clowney drops to this spot, he could be Jacksonville's choice as a guy who could come in and be a difference-maker for that defense, playing something of a hybrid role. But unless Clowney is available, I think the Jaguars will take the best QB available at No. 3. I feel as though Bortles and Bridgewater are the two likeliest options, and with Bortles off the board in this scenario, that means Bridgewater. He is the most NFL-ready and naturally accurate quarterback in this class, and he remains the top QB in our rankings.
4 Johnny Manziel
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: QB
Analysis: The mantra for the Browns is the same as for the Jaguars: take the best available QB. They'll be pulling hard for Clowney and Robinson to be among the top three picks so they have some choices here, but in this scenario the only guy among our first round-worthy QBs is Manziel. I don't know if he's an ideal fit or if he'd be the Browns' first choice, but I'm not worried about his size or arm strength as it relates to playing in cold weather. If I had to rank the top three QBs in terms of arm strength, I'd go Bridgewater, Manziel and Bortles, without much difference among the three. And Manziel's 9 7/8-inch hands are plenty big enough to grip the ball in cold weather.
5 Sammy Watkins
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: Clemson
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 211
POS: WR
Analysis: I think that if Bortles or Bridgewater drops to the Raiders at No. 5 they'd be very happy, but if not they'd love to trade back (I'm not sure that Manziel is what they're looking for at QB). This is a team with holes all over the roster, so being able to trade back and pick up a guy like trade back and pick up a guy like WR Mike Evans, CB Justin Gilbert or OT Zack Martin later while while also stockpiling extra picks would be ideal. However, if the Raiders are stuck here, I think they'll take the best player available, and in this scenario that would be either Greg Robinson or Watkins. I'll go with Watkins, who would bring big-play ability and an elite skill set at the receiver position.
6 Greg Robinson
Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
COLLEGE: Auburn
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 332
POS: OT
Analysis: Coming out of the combine, I wrote that the Falcons could be one of the big winners in this year's draft, and in this scenario they hit a home run. Short of Clowney falling to them at No. 6, which isn't going to happen, this is the scenario that would make the Falcons decision-makers happiest. Robinson is one of the four elite prospects in this year's class (along with Clowney, Watkins and Buffalo's Khalil Mack), and he's the most dominating offensive lineman at the point of attack that I've ever evaluated. He also has tremendous athleticism for his size, giving him the ability to hold his own in pass protection right away and the potential to be an excellent pass blocker over time.
7 Khalil Mack
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
COLLEGE: Buffalo
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 251
POS: OLB
Analysis: I think that this choice would come down to Mack versus offensive tackle Jake Matthews. While in some respects Mack wouldn't fill a huge need area, as the "Sam" linebacker in Lovie Smith's defense isn't as important as some other positions, what drives up his value is his versatility. He could cover tight ends when they needed him to and he could also be an impact pass-rusher (something the Bucs lacked last season) when they turned him loose off the edge. Mack is one of the four elite players in this class, and teams need guys like him who can create turnovers.
8 Justin Gilbert
Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma State
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 202
POS: CB
Analysis: If I were to rank the two or three likeliest teams to trade out of their first-round pick, the Vikings would be right in the mix. I could see them trying to aggressively move up if one of the top QBs (say, Johnny Manziel) dropped to No. 5, and I could see them moving back if there isn't a QB available at No. 8 in an attempt to grab more picks and take a lower-rated quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo later. But if they stay put, I think the Vikings take the best player available, either offensive tackle Jake Matthews or cornerback Justin Gilbert out of Oklahoma State. I'll go with Gilbert, the top corner prospect on our board who has excellent speed, size and playmaking ability.
9 Jake Matthews
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: Eric Ebron would be an interesting pick here, as would Mike Evans, because both guys are big-play weapons in the passing game with their size and ball skills. Both of whom would help young QB EJ Manuel. But I think in this scenario they'd go with a guy who can help protect Manuel in Matthews. He is versatile enough to play either tackle spot, and he's a great value here as one of the top 10 and maybe one of the top five prospects in this draft.
10 Mike Evans
Detroit Lions (7-9)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 231
POS: WR
Analysis: I know that the idea of drafting a wide receiver in the first round brings back a lot of bad memories for Lions fans, but I really think that Detroit needs to add a guy who can take advantage of 1-on-1 coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and create big plays, and that's Evans. He is one of the best receivers at coming down with 50-50 balls that I've ever evaluated, and he's the most accomplished downfield receiving threat in this class. UNC tight end Eric Ebron would be another option here. Given the depth of the cornerback class, I think the Lions can wait to add a good one.
11 Anthony Barr
Tennessee Titans (7-9)
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 255
POS: OLB
Analysis: I struggled with this one, for two reasons: 1.) The Titans have a lot of options at this spot, and 2.) I'm not someone who thinks Barr has enough upside to be an early first-round pick, but there seem to be a lot of guys in the league who do. And if you are a Barr believer, he'd be a good fit in new Tennessee defensive coordinator Ray Horton's 4-3, 3-4 hybrid scheme, given his versatility to play defensive end or outside linebacker and his pass-rushing ability. Other options for the Titans include LB C.J. Mosley, OT Taylor Lewan and safeties Calvin Pryor or Ha Ha Clinton-Dix.
12 Taylor Lewan
New York Giants (7-9)
COLLEGE: Michigan
AGE: 21
HT: 6-7
WT: 309
POS: OT
Analysis: This is another tricky one, because the two biggest need areas for the Giants, in my opinion, are offensive tackle and linebacker, and those are two positions they hardly ever use first-round picks on. They broke their tackle streak last year, selecting Justin Pugh, and I think with him on the right and Lewan on the left they'd have a significant upgrade and a pairing that can better protect Eli Manning. Lewan certainly justifies the pick from a talent standpoint, as he's long, has good experience and showcased his explosiveness at the combine.
13 Calvin Pryor
St. Louis Rams (7-9)
COLLEGE: Louisville
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 207
POS: S
Analysis: Rams fans probably don't love me for taking two defensive players with their first-rounders in this mock, but they need a safety and Pryor is a good value here as the top-ranked safety on our board. He is a hammer in run support and shows good range in zone coverage. There isn't an offensive tackle worth taking at No. 13 in this scenario, so trading back might be an option as there's good depth at the position later in the first round and early in the second. They can address the skill positions later, as this is a deep draft for RBs and WRs in the middle rounds.
14 Aaron Donald
Chicago Bears (8-8)
COLLEGE: Pittsburgh
AGE: 21
HT: 6-0
WT: 285
POS: DT
Analysis: Donald is a perfect fit for the Bears' scheme as a 3-technique defensive tackle. I don't know if there's been a prospect who has helped his stock more during the draft process than him; he was unblockable at the Senior Bowl and that put together an unbelievable overall workout at the combine. He's shorter than prototype size, but he has long arms, a powerful upper body and creates a lot of big plays with his anticipation and quickness. FSU's Timmy Jernigan is a fit as a 3-technique as well, but Donald is a much better finisher as a pass-rusher.
15 Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-1
WT: 208
POS: S
Analysis: I really struggled with this one, too. I think Pittsburgh's priorities should be to get younger on defense and upgrade the offensive line, but in this scenario there isn't a tackle who really justifies a top-15 pick (although Zack Martin at least merits consideration). If they trade back, nose tackle Louis Nix III could be an option, but I have enough concerns about his 2013 performance that I don't think he'd go off the board this early. So I think this pick comes down to the best available secondary player, and Clinton-Dix is a playmaker at the safety position with really good range.
16 Timmy Jernigan
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: Florida State
AGE: 21
HT: 6-1
WT: 299
POS: DT
Analysis: Donald is a great fit here if he drops, but Jernigan brings a lot of value as a 3-technique defensive tackle in this system as well. He is very strong and quick versus the run, and I love his motor and awareness -- he just isn't as fast or smooth as Donald. The Cowboys need help all along their defensive line and in their secondary, and Jernigan could come in and make an impact.
17 C.J. Mosley
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 234
POS: ILB
Analysis: I had the Ravens select the best player available in this scenario, which is something they have a history of doing. Linebacker isn't necessarily a need spot for Baltimore, but the team isn't set at the position, either, and Mosley would provide an upgrade as a very productive playmaker with versatility and range. How the Ravens address the offensive tackle position in free agency with Eugene Monroe and Michael Oher could have an impact on this pick, and I wouldn't totally rule out UNC tight end Eric Ebron, either -- even after the Dennis Pitta deal. Ebron would be a nice weapon for QB Joe Flacco and a good value at this spot.
18 Marqise Lee
New York Jets (8-8)
COLLEGE: USC
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 192
POS: WR
Analysis: This one is a no-brainer. The Jets have invested a lot of high draft picks on the defensive side of the ball in recent years, and if second-year QB Geno Smith is going to have any chance to succeed in the NFL, they need to provide him with a better supporting cast. Lee struggled in 2013 with some drops and ran a less-than-stellar 4.52 40-yard dash at the combine, but he's a big-play weapon both after the catch and on vertical routes who would be an asset to Smith in the passing game.
19 Zack Martin
Miami Dolphins (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 308
POS: OT
Analysis: Offensive line was a serious problem area for the Dolphins last season, both on and off the field. They simply have to find a way to better protect QB Ryan Tannehill next season, after he was sacked a team-record 58 times, and Martin could provide immediate help -- especially in the running game, which is another issue for them. Martin has great experience and good technique, and he is a strong, tough player. His lack of ideal length limits his upside a bit, but I think he'll either develop into a solid NFL tackle or a top-level guard.
20 Darqueze Dennard
Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
COLLEGE: Michigan State
AGE: 21
HT: 5-10
WT: 199
POS: CB
Analysis: The Cardinals could look at either Anthony Barr or Zack Martin if they drop to this spot, but in this scenario I think Dennard makes sense. He isn't the fastest guy and he has solid but not elite ball skills, but I think he is the best pure cover cornerback in this class, partly due to his great instincts. He would do well opposite Patrick Peterson, and Arizona could use some depth help depending on how things shake out in free agency.
21 Eric Ebron
Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
COLLEGE: North Carolina
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 250
POS: TE
Analysis: I don't know if Ebron will last this long, but if he does then the Packers should run their pick up to the podium. He'd be a steal here in terms of value, and tight end is one of their top needs. There are some good tight ends in this class, but Ebron is at a different level in terms of his athleticism and explosiveness -- both off the line and after the catch -- and big-play ability. Aaron Rodgers would love to have this guy on his team.
22 Bradley Roby
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
COLLEGE: Ohio State
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 194
POS: CB
Analysis: The best values at this spot for Philadelphia are going to be at cornerback -- outside linebacker and safety can wait until later, especially if the top two safeties are off the board as they are in this scenario. Roby needs to be coached up, as he got burned several times this season as a result of poor discipline, but his size, speed, athleticism and playmaking ability make him capable of developing into a shutdown corner on the outside.
23 Odell Beckham Jr.
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 198
POS: WR
Analysis: The Chiefs need to upgrade at cornerback and safety and would also like to add some D-line help, but they could also use some new weapons on offense and Beckham is a good value pick here. He and Oregon State's Brandin Cooks are vying to be the fourth wide receiver in this class, but Beckham is a little bigger and stronger than Cooks, and he's a little more dynamic in terms of his playmaking ability even though Cooks ran a faster 40 time at the combine. He could also help the Chiefs in the return game.
24 Kyle Fuller
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
COLLEGE: Virginia Tech
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11
WT: 190
POS: CB
Analysis: The Bengals need a cornerback, and Fuller is a guy who turned some heads with his combine performance. The two big question marks on him had been speed and durability, but then he ran a 4.49 40 and, from what I heard, teams didn't come away with any concerns about his durability. He has good size (6-foot) and long arms and proved to be an explosive athlete based on his test results.
25 Jason Verrett
San Diego Chargers (9-7)
COLLEGE: TCU
AGE: 21
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: CB
Analysis: The Chargers are another team in need of 3-4 outside linebackers, but the supply is not there at this point in the first round. Cornerback is another need, and Verrett would be a great fit here, with his excellent speed, quickness and ball skills. He is lacking in size, but he plays big enough that I don't think it should be that big of a concern. San Diego can grab a pass-rusher and offensive guard in middle rounds
26 Brandin Cooks
Cleveland Browns (4-12)
COLLEGE: Oregon State
AGE: 21
HT: 5-9
WT: 189
POS: WR
Analysis: In this scenario, the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel at No. 4 overall, so let's give their rookie QB a weapon on the perimeter. Cooks is undersized, but he can burn; he ran the fastest 40 time among receivers at the combine and his acceleration up the field right after the catch is outstanding. He has very good ball skills and is an outstanding route runner, too, and he'd fit well opposite Josh Gordon or in the slot next to him.
27 Morgan Moses
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
COLLEGE: Virginia
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 314
POS: OT
Analysis: The Saints have a need at corner, but I think Moses would be a tempting option at this point. Moses has very good size and length, the only question for the Saints is if they view him as a right tackle with Terron Armstead on the left side, as Moses looked a lot more natural at left tackle in 2013 than he did previously at right tackle.
28 Kelvin Benjamin
Carolina Panthers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida State
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 240
POS: WR
Analysis: The Panthers need to solidify their offensive line, especially at the left tackle spot with Jordan Gross' retirement, so I think if Moses drops here he'd be the pick. But there isn't a great value at this point, and they need receiver help as well. We have a second-round grade on Benjamin, but he's tempting because of his size and catch radius. He wouldn't have to run too many routes early on to have an impact, as you could create plenty of mismatches for him. He'd be a great red-zone weapon for Cam Newton.
29 Ra'Shede Hageman
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Minnesota
AGE: 21
HT: 6-5
WT: 310
POS: DT
Analysis: This would be a good value pick, as Hageman could go anywhere in the 20s, and he is a good scheme fit as well due to his versatility and rare size-speed combination. Hageman had a challenging upbringing, and the fact that he has persevered is a testament to him, but he's also a guy who will likely need structure around him to succeed, and he'd have that in New England.
30 Louis Nix III
San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
COLLEGE: Notre Dame
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 331
POS: DT
Analysis: In this scenario, a serious run on wide receivers and cornerbacks just took place (eight of the last 12 picks), so the value isn't really here for the 49ers to address either of those positions. But the Niners have 11 picks total, including two in each of the second and third rounds, so they'll have plenty of opportunities to take a receiver or corner. As for Nix, he's a good value pick as a massive nose tackle who has great mobility for his size. He struggled in 2013, but he certainly merited first-round consideration with his play in 2012.
31 Kony Ealy
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Missouri
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 273
POS: DE
Analysis: Ealy is a versatile defensive lineman who would be a good value pick here. He is a better pass-rusher than a run-stopper. Like most teams right now, the Broncos have some uncertainty along their defensive front entering free agency, with a couple of unrestricted free agents and Von Miller recovering from a torn ACL. Ealy would help fill that need.
32 Xavier Su'a-Filo
Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
COLLEGE: UCLA
AGE: 21
HT: 6-4
WT: 307
POS: OG
Analysis: The Seahawks' two biggest need areas, in my opinion, are offensive line (particularly right tackle) and wide receiver, and Su'a-Filo would provide an upgrade at offensive guard. We only have a second-round grade on him, but he is a guy whose stock is rising as the draft process goes on, and he has good foot quickness and size.
