Great thoughtful opinions in here guys. Good thread.
I think everyone in here knows by now that I'm advocating the Cavaliers make trading high on talent a key priority this offseason.
I'm looking at Tristan, Mozgov, and Shumpert as three key assets that are going to be very valuable this offseason for various teams in various situations. We should be capitalizing on this as best as possible, IMHO.
I wanted to address a few points raised by some posters here in this thread so far:
@Birdy89 , @Lee : "Kevin Love will opt in."
I know this is the rumor du jour, but can anyone explain why Kevin opts in? He instantly loses $3M by doing so. If I'm Kevin Love, and even if my intentions are 100% to return to the Cavaliers; I'm opting out of my contract and re-signing with more years (1), more security and a player option in 2017.
Love opting in on his last year with a bum shoulder is counter-intuitive, and there is no way in hell Jeff Schwartz would allow his client to do something so irresponsible. Don't listen to guys like Jalen Rose saying his injury makes him less likely to test the market, on the contrary, his injury makes him more likely to secure a guaranteed salary. Remember, opting out has nothing to do with him staying or leaving, it's just a way for him to restructure his contract with the Cavaliers; hell, even Gilbert and Griffin would probably advise him to opt out.
@Lee : "Tristan will get $12-$13M."
That ship has sailed, and Thompson gambling on himself, stayed off it. He's going to get far more than that. Expect Thompson to get something along the lines of $15M/yr; especially with him turning down 54/4. He and Jordan will be the most overpaid contracts this offseason. My advice:
trade him.
@SteelSmack : "Love will sign a 5-year deal with a Player Option after year 2 and an ETO after year 4."
The new Collective Bargaining Agreement prevents these types of deals. In fact, the last such deal was James, Wade, and Bosh's Miami deals.
Now, there are no more six year deals, meaning the ETO can only happen in the 5th year. Further constraining this is the fact that the new CBA only allows for a single option per contract; so, Love is restricted to the last year of his contract for any potential opt-out.
This means,
if Love wants to maximize his earnings he is restricted to a two-year deal; he cannot sign a 5 year max contract this offseason unless he is allergic to money (or unless he really is questioning his own health, which is a distinct possibility).
@Bob_The_Cat: "Can TT develop to guard SF's?"
Not in the cards Bob. I see what you're thinking there, but Tristan is more a PF/C (and undersized at the 5) than he is anything approaching the wings. He's a good face-up defender, but it would be a pipedream to think he'll become remotely able to guard small forwards.
@Nightperson : "Who offers Tristan $15M?"
That depends... Some team front offices might gladly sign Tristan to a $15M offer-sheet if it means filling up otherwise unused cap-space.
Think about it...
Tristan at $15M but on 5 years is a bad contract for 1 year, an okay contract for 2 years, and an actually decent contract going into 2017-18 with a $100M cap.
Instead of Thompson taking up almost 1/4th of a team's cap, he'd be closer to 1/7th. That's actually a decent bet, and capwise, it's a better team-centric deal than what the Cavs offered him last offseason.
So why do I want to trade him?
Because this bet is for a team looking to make moves in 2-3 years, a team undergoing a small/moderate rebuild, or a team that really just needs one more piece (these categories fit the majority of the league, actually). But the Cavaliers are in a unique position.
Here's where it gets a bit grey, and this is purely subjective, as in this is just my opinion, but I do think this is also largely a quantitative determination. With that said though, in essence, our present window of opportunity is between now (as in right now with two injured superstars), and maybe the following 2-3 years. After that we have another potential window of opportunity with Kevin and Kyrie leading the pack, but that remains to be seen.
My point is that we could potentially upgrade from Thompson to someone who could help us a bit more on the offensive side of the ball, act as an insurance policy against injury (Love/Irving and against James's inevitable and undeniable regression), and while costing more now, would effectively cost less (just as Thompson would) in the long-run.
But that's another topic entirely.
@Adam : "A good deal for Delly has more years not more money."
I totally agree 100%. $2-3m/yr for 4 years is a good offer for an undrafted rookie. It gives him time to further develop, and if he really feels he's on the upswing, give him an option in the final year of his contract.
