Sometimes NBA analysts and metrics underrate and/or ignore future contenders. The most recent example being the 2014-15 and 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks, who most analytical models and NBA commentators had as a treadmill, ~.500 team each year. This upcoming season, though, the Indiana Pacers are
that team, the one everyone seems to be missing.
For example,
Jonathan Tjarks recently wrote a great piece about potential new “death lineups” during the 2016-17 NBA season. He mentioned the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic, Utah Jazz, Boston Celtics, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Not once were the Indiana Pacers mentioned.
Furthermore, ESPN.com’s NBA analysis has partially become famous for its “real plus-minus” (or RPM) statistic. This uses a regression model based on players’ on/off court statistics to evaluate said players individual impact. Moreover, by combining the RPM’s of various players, one can predict win totals.
In ESPN’s recent RPM-projected records for the 2016-17 season, the Indiana Pacers finished as the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference, one win ahead of missing the playoffs.
Finally,
NBA Statistics website Nylon Calculus projects Myles Turner as the sixth best 2015 draftee during the 2016-17 season. This is in the face of Turner’s borderline elite numbers in small-ball lineups, analyzed
here by Tjarks.
Thus, the analytic community simply does not understand the Indiana Pacers. They see the George Hill trade for Jeff Teague as a downgrade. Numbers suggest Al Jefferson is a one-way, average-efficiency post player, and not a true, dominant NBA center. Stats view Myles Turner as a good small-ball player who will eventually regress to his college norm, whereas Jahlil Okafor and D’Angelo Russell will eventually be the better talents. Finally, nearly every metric suggests Monta Ellis is a significantly overvalued NBA player.