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2016 College Football Lines/Gambling Thread
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TheLand1287
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Some early Week 3 CFB lines that have jumped out to me:
Wyoming -3 at Eastern Michigan
Ole Miss -7 vs Georgia
Iowa -13.5 at Rutgers
Florida State -6 at South Florida
Penn State +18.5 at Michigan
Tulsa -14.5 at Fresno State
South Carolina +1.5 at Kentucky
Texas A&M -5.5 vs Arkansas
Memphis -16.5 vs BGSU
No real research has been done yet, but just looking at the slate these were the ones that sort of caught my attention.
Wyoming -3 at Eastern Michigan
Ole Miss -7 vs Georgia
Iowa -13.5 at Rutgers
Florida State -6 at South Florida
Penn State +18.5 at Michigan
Tulsa -14.5 at Fresno State
South Carolina +1.5 at Kentucky
Texas A&M -5.5 vs Arkansas
Memphis -16.5 vs BGSU
No real research has been done yet, but just looking at the slate these were the ones that sort of caught my attention.
Was 5-5 with 1 push last week on picks posted here (yuck). I got pretty frustrated after the early games and did a stupid bettor move, and placed a big chunk of my roll on Ohio State to cover.....and it worked out really well. That's a pretty terrible gambling tactic however. Thanks Urban.
Not a ton jumping out right now for me at moment but a few thoughts below:
Under 45.5 on Tennessee/UF....Luke Del Rio is out for Florida so former Purdue QB Appleby gets the nod. UF's defense is legit, and UF isn't built to put a lot of points on board. If you like this pick get it now because that 45.5 will slide closer to 40 in next couple days.
BGSU +16.5 at Memphis...maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment. I don't see a significant talent gap here and I think BGSU still gets the ship turned around. Don't think BGSU wins, but I think they keep it within 16.5
FSU -6 at USF....USF is a good team, but I think this is a pretty big over-reaction to the Lousiville game. As bad as FSU looked last week without arguably the best defensive player in CFB, USF doesn't have a Lamar Jackson. Keep in mind that USF stadium will probably be 50% FSU fans as well. I like FSU to rebound and win by 2+ scores.
Nebraska -7 at Northwestern....this line surprises me a bit. Would've thought it'd be closer to +10 or so. Nebraska has a lot more talent. Could be a let down game after the big Oregon win? I'm always a bit hesitant with games at Northwestern bc they can play teams close so won't be going heavy units here.
Stanford -3 at UCLA....Just have to like the David Shaw machine here. Christain McCaffery continues to be one of the best players in the country, Stanfords D continues to be stingy as hell, and I think Mora has proven to be completely overrated as a Head Coach. I like Stanford to handle their business.
Not a ton jumping out right now for me at moment but a few thoughts below:
Under 45.5 on Tennessee/UF....Luke Del Rio is out for Florida so former Purdue QB Appleby gets the nod. UF's defense is legit, and UF isn't built to put a lot of points on board. If you like this pick get it now because that 45.5 will slide closer to 40 in next couple days.
BGSU +16.5 at Memphis...maybe I'm just a glutton for punishment. I don't see a significant talent gap here and I think BGSU still gets the ship turned around. Don't think BGSU wins, but I think they keep it within 16.5
FSU -6 at USF....USF is a good team, but I think this is a pretty big over-reaction to the Lousiville game. As bad as FSU looked last week without arguably the best defensive player in CFB, USF doesn't have a Lamar Jackson. Keep in mind that USF stadium will probably be 50% FSU fans as well. I like FSU to rebound and win by 2+ scores.
Nebraska -7 at Northwestern....this line surprises me a bit. Would've thought it'd be closer to +10 or so. Nebraska has a lot more talent. Could be a let down game after the big Oregon win? I'm always a bit hesitant with games at Northwestern bc they can play teams close so won't be going heavy units here.
Stanford -3 at UCLA....Just have to like the David Shaw machine here. Christain McCaffery continues to be one of the best players in the country, Stanfords D continues to be stingy as hell, and I think Mora has proven to be completely overrated as a Head Coach. I like Stanford to handle their business.
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sjhughes
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Note to self, no more betting the NFL:
For the rest of the year I am turning all of my attention to COllege. Each year I suck at NFL but try to get wins out of there. I will shoot out the college plays here shortly.
For the rest of the year I am turning all of my attention to COllege. Each year I suck at NFL but try to get wins out of there. I will shoot out the college plays here shortly.
TheLand1287
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Yeah, the NFL is just too unpredictable for me. Hard enough picking games outright sometimes let alone with point spread. I missed on the Raiders/Falcons game, but hit on Panthers -4 for the 2nd half against the 49ers and the 2nd half under in the Saints/Giants game. Maybe in-game betting for NFL is the way to go moving forward.
TheLand1287
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The site I use already has Tenn/UF at 43.5
SanduskyCav
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Not much action this week guys? Always enjoy watching how you all do.
AZ_
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Don't have too much time to get into detail, but here is my card:
FSU -6 at USF
There is a large talent disparity here and USF certainly does not have a Lamar Jackson. This game should be a nice rebound game for the Noles who will be hungry coming off their embarrassing loss.
Florida +7 at Tennessee
The streak of UF beating UT may come to an end, but I expect a close contest. Tennessee is without some of their top defensive talent, Florida will be without their QB.
BYU/West Virginia O50
Neutral site contest with a pretty low number, both teams have better offenses than to have this at 50.
San Jose State +6.5 at Iowa State
The Cyclones are an utterly terrible team and are taking their lumps as Matt Campbell tries to build a program. San Jose might be without their QB, and thats a big question mark here but the bet was already placed. I still like it either way.
Oklahoma St. +8 at Baylor
This game could be pretty high scoring, as it usually is. OSU is not as bad as a loss to CMU would show, and Baylor really did not look all that sharp against a poor Rice team last week. I'm hopeful the Cowboys can keep it within a score, they could absolutely win this game.
Stanford -3 at UCLA
Rosen's offense has struggled a bit and hasn't quite gelled quite yet. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with McCaffery and the Stanford offense.
Five Team Parlay:
Marshall +26.5 vs. Louisville
Iowa -12.5 at Rutgers
Utah -2.5 vs. USC
Oregon ML -380 vs. Colorado
Washington ML - 400 at Arizona
FSU -6 at USF
There is a large talent disparity here and USF certainly does not have a Lamar Jackson. This game should be a nice rebound game for the Noles who will be hungry coming off their embarrassing loss.
Florida +7 at Tennessee
The streak of UF beating UT may come to an end, but I expect a close contest. Tennessee is without some of their top defensive talent, Florida will be without their QB.
BYU/West Virginia O50
Neutral site contest with a pretty low number, both teams have better offenses than to have this at 50.
San Jose State +6.5 at Iowa State
The Cyclones are an utterly terrible team and are taking their lumps as Matt Campbell tries to build a program. San Jose might be without their QB, and thats a big question mark here but the bet was already placed. I still like it either way.
Oklahoma St. +8 at Baylor
This game could be pretty high scoring, as it usually is. OSU is not as bad as a loss to CMU would show, and Baylor really did not look all that sharp against a poor Rice team last week. I'm hopeful the Cowboys can keep it within a score, they could absolutely win this game.
Stanford -3 at UCLA
Rosen's offense has struggled a bit and hasn't quite gelled quite yet. I don't think they'll be able to keep up with McCaffery and the Stanford offense.
Five Team Parlay:
Marshall +26.5 vs. Louisville
Iowa -12.5 at Rutgers
Utah -2.5 vs. USC
Oregon ML -380 vs. Colorado
Washington ML - 400 at Arizona
Decided to take FSU on money line. My book took game to -7 and I've lost some faith in Noles although I can't see them losing this game. USF is playing good ball ball though and FSU is still down Derwin James and now Josh Sweat.
Under 44 on UF/UT- just don't see a ton of points in this game. Low scoring game that will come down to field position and ball control.
Over 51 BYU/WVU....trailing Az here, but I like the pick. BYU D is stingy but have to think WVU punches a few TD's in and game ends up above 51.
Stanford -3.5... Just like Stanfords system and their terrific defense. Think they handle this spot fairly easily.
BGSU +17.5.....I feel like they've played pretty bad and gotten some bad breaks last several weeks. I don't think MTSU is significantly better so I'm rolling with points and BG.
-320 on Nebraska money line as well. Don't like line at -8 against Northwestern but confident Huskers come away with W.
Under 44 on UF/UT- just don't see a ton of points in this game. Low scoring game that will come down to field position and ball control.
Over 51 BYU/WVU....trailing Az here, but I like the pick. BYU D is stingy but have to think WVU punches a few TD's in and game ends up above 51.
Stanford -3.5... Just like Stanfords system and their terrific defense. Think they handle this spot fairly easily.
BGSU +17.5.....I feel like they've played pretty bad and gotten some bad breaks last several weeks. I don't think MTSU is significantly better so I'm rolling with points and BG.
-320 on Nebraska money line as well. Don't like line at -8 against Northwestern but confident Huskers come away with W.
TheLand1287
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FSU down to -3.5 .. I don't get it. Already took it at 5.5 so doubling down at 3.5
Other bets:
Iowa -13
Stanford -3
BYU/WV o50
Florida/Tenn u43
Alabama/Kent o48
Arkansas/A&M o49
Other bets:
Iowa -13
Stanford -3
BYU/WV o50
Florida/Tenn u43
Alabama/Kent o48
Arkansas/A&M o49
FSU bet looking solid so far.....still a lot of game left but good to see Dalvin Cook finally find some success this season on the ground.
natedagg
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Holy shizzle, lots of bets to report. I hope I remember why I made them!
Iowa -13 for 6 units. Not feeling great about this but NDSU who they lost to is a good team and I don't have much faith in Rutgers. Remember, if you like a favorite, try to get that $ down early in the week when the line is better. That USUALLY (read: not FSU) works.
Marshall+27 for 1.5 units. Might add more here. The more I read, the more I think the public is going to absolutely pile on Louisville. It's already up substantially, so this might become a much bigger bet.
Notre Dame -19 for 1.5 units: This is a combination of fading Duke and liking ND. I really don't like this bet that much. Meh.
Western KY Jelly -8 v Vandy for 1.5 units: Vandy has 1 win and in that win, against MTSU, they were outgained by over 100 yards. They got lit up by Georgia Tech 38-10 too. Western KY comes off of a game versus Miami OH where they kind of just fell asleep after being up 24-3. That should make for a better week of practice and now they are at home.
Oregon -10.5 over Colorado for 1.5 units: Let me say that I do think Colorado is improving and they had a chance to win outright last week against Michigan, but unfortunately, their QB got injured. Without him, I don't think they keep it close. Now that said, I just read he is day-to-day so maybe he will play, at which case I don't like my bet...
BGSU +17.5 1.5 units: Not sure if Memphis somehow got Paxton Lynch back but I don't see how beating a no-name school and then beating the worst school (Kansas) merits being a 17.5 point favorite. In BGSU's other loss (besides tOSU), they were tied in yards with MTSU, so they are kind of a mid-bad team here, but 17.5 seems rich.
Nebraska -8 v NW 1.5 units: I'll bite here. I didn't do a ton of research but Nebraska is a good team and Northwestern sucks. I think Nebraska's defense will be better than advertised and that part of the projection is distorted because of them playing Oregon last week.
Buffalo +14 for 3 units. Some capper who is hot said this is his game of the week. It looks like such a bad idea that it must be a great one!
PSU/TTUN over 56.5 for 1.5 units. Number is low due to reputations. PSU is porous, Michigan looked that way too last week. I see Michigan winning 40's to 20's.
1 unit each on San Jose State vs. Iowa State +9 and straight up +285. Hold that L. Dammit they are down big at the half.
BYU WVU over 51.5 2 units: piggyback off of Boobie.
1 unit each on Pittsburgh to win +235 and +7 over UNC. I don't see why UNC is favored. They beat JMU and Illinois. They kept it close with UGA but were outyarded 474-315. Like, that's not good at all. Pitt was up 21 on PSU before that game ended close. They come off of a loss here and I don't see a blowout at all. I might add to this bet....
Okla State +7.5 v Baylor for 1.5 units. Who knows, but I am going to go with Baylor getting by on reputation a bit here. I am not sure that they are the better team and Okla State has the better resume to this point.
Marshall I bet again at +30.5 for 3 more units. Classic Sandwich game with Clemson on deck for UL.
FSU -4 for 5 units: Cappers were all hot on South Florida. This looks to be in the bag. This is pretty much a piggy back victory from AZ_...
I was trying to get Ole Miss in before the bell but I missed it by a hair. Dammit.
Anyway, hope this helps and good luck to all.
Iowa -13 for 6 units. Not feeling great about this but NDSU who they lost to is a good team and I don't have much faith in Rutgers. Remember, if you like a favorite, try to get that $ down early in the week when the line is better. That USUALLY (read: not FSU) works.
Marshall+27 for 1.5 units. Might add more here. The more I read, the more I think the public is going to absolutely pile on Louisville. It's already up substantially, so this might become a much bigger bet.
Notre Dame -19 for 1.5 units: This is a combination of fading Duke and liking ND. I really don't like this bet that much. Meh.
Western KY Jelly -8 v Vandy for 1.5 units: Vandy has 1 win and in that win, against MTSU, they were outgained by over 100 yards. They got lit up by Georgia Tech 38-10 too. Western KY comes off of a game versus Miami OH where they kind of just fell asleep after being up 24-3. That should make for a better week of practice and now they are at home.
Oregon -10.5 over Colorado for 1.5 units: Let me say that I do think Colorado is improving and they had a chance to win outright last week against Michigan, but unfortunately, their QB got injured. Without him, I don't think they keep it close. Now that said, I just read he is day-to-day so maybe he will play, at which case I don't like my bet...
BGSU +17.5 1.5 units: Not sure if Memphis somehow got Paxton Lynch back but I don't see how beating a no-name school and then beating the worst school (Kansas) merits being a 17.5 point favorite. In BGSU's other loss (besides tOSU), they were tied in yards with MTSU, so they are kind of a mid-bad team here, but 17.5 seems rich.
Nebraska -8 v NW 1.5 units: I'll bite here. I didn't do a ton of research but Nebraska is a good team and Northwestern sucks. I think Nebraska's defense will be better than advertised and that part of the projection is distorted because of them playing Oregon last week.
Buffalo +14 for 3 units. Some capper who is hot said this is his game of the week. It looks like such a bad idea that it must be a great one!
PSU/TTUN over 56.5 for 1.5 units. Number is low due to reputations. PSU is porous, Michigan looked that way too last week. I see Michigan winning 40's to 20's.
1 unit each on San Jose State vs. Iowa State +9 and straight up +285. Hold that L. Dammit they are down big at the half.
BYU WVU over 51.5 2 units: piggyback off of Boobie.
1 unit each on Pittsburgh to win +235 and +7 over UNC. I don't see why UNC is favored. They beat JMU and Illinois. They kept it close with UGA but were outyarded 474-315. Like, that's not good at all. Pitt was up 21 on PSU before that game ended close. They come off of a loss here and I don't see a blowout at all. I might add to this bet....
Okla State +7.5 v Baylor for 1.5 units. Who knows, but I am going to go with Baylor getting by on reputation a bit here. I am not sure that they are the better team and Okla State has the better resume to this point.
Marshall I bet again at +30.5 for 3 more units. Classic Sandwich game with Clemson on deck for UL.
FSU -4 for 5 units: Cappers were all hot on South Florida. This looks to be in the bag. This is pretty much a piggy back victory from AZ_...
I was trying to get Ole Miss in before the bell but I missed it by a hair. Dammit.
Anyway, hope this helps and good luck to all.